June 21, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by Inushtuk1
27*-23  ?
55%
19%
14%
9%
0%
0%
Total votes: 166
BigFoot Bob
624 votes

Joined: April 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:06 AM
Keeping the four card run makes the valuable five worth only one point. So off to my crib with the Jack.
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:10 AM
Keeping the best hand that increases with every cut, has the highest combined value (crib plus exp. avg. hand) and choosing offense in this position.
Guest says: It's a no brainier today
spin121
299 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:18 AM
Seems like every time a tricky hand comes up on this site and there is a JQ to discard, that ends up being the correct choice. Plus pretty sure I've seen this hand a few times here.
spin121 says: Pegging optimal
dec
6351 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:39 AM
Run with it dec
glmccuskey
4094 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:46 AM
The pegging value out ways the 5 to the crib because with non dealer at 23 I'm pegging offensively.
Gougie00
5723 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:05 AM
When in doubt Face-Five.
Ras2829
5145 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:31 AM
This is one of those hands where the longer run is the better hold. As mentioned above the J-Q has good value to the crib. Had the X-pointers been 10-K, 10-Q, or Q-K, the correct discard would have been 5-K or 5-Q in the earlier two combos retaining the 10 spot because of its proximity to the 6-7-8. With the Q-K discard 5-K as it has the higher crib average. RAS will choose an offense pegging strategy. That means since holding 5-6, will take a 15-2 on a X-lead. If choosing defense, would play the six spot on a X-lead and close the count at 31-2 with the play of the five. It is important to keep these low-scoring combinations in mind when tossing X-pointers to own crib: 10-K 2.836 scores 2 or less 50.043%; 10-Q 3.166 scores 2 or less 45.069%; and Q-K 3.483 scores 2 or less 46.674%.
Ras2829 says: Reassuring to know that 2/3 have made this choice at the time of this posting.
Jazzselke says: Always intriguing to me whether to throw the Q or K to my own crib.Q can more often be part of a run, but K more likely thrown by your opponent. What is your overall thought on 5Q vs. 5K?
Guest says: The theory of one of our club champs is to throw the Q into opp's crib a the K into his own, sine most people usually toss K's into cribs. I voted to toss 5-J on this one as I've had it drilled into me to always get a 5 into your crib if it doesn't ruin your hand. This game--ugh!! (jazzman--go back and see RAS' compliment to you on Sunday when you won the main ) S :)
Jazzselke says: Yes, saw that, thanks. Certainly this site,and Ras, have helped me tremendously in my cribbage pursuits.
Guest says: ok..more kudos for Mr Selke.(he is going to yell at me for this haha) Besides being a friend and mentor, he has given up his hotel room to me for this weekend, AND will be my personal Uber driver. My travelling group is is divided up into hotels in different cities after a lot of finagling. I not for the azzman, I would be staying home this weekend instead of going to the hotel-lacking town of Slinger WI to play with many other wonderful cribbage friends. S:)
Guest says: oh my..wish this had a edit feature.....hahah..should be.." if not for the JJJJJJJazzman"
Jazzselke says: Will not yell...
Ras2829 says: Hi Jazzselke: Certainly if things were otherwise equal, any X-point card with the 5 has a higher average than does the Queen to own crib. They look like this based on my empirical data: 5-J 7.088 (1,678) 3/91; 5-K 6.726 (1,742) 5/91; 5-10 6.698 (1,170) 6/91; and 5-Q 6.593 (1,251) 7/91. So the 5 with the K or 10 spot does benefit from the frequent 10-K discard from nd, relegating the 5-Q to the lowest scoring of that group to own crib although closely bunched. It looks much the same on the other side of the board with the King and 10 changing position as opponent is more likely to place a 10 spot in crib as in 9-10, 10-J, 10,10, etc. than discard that lowly King. Most dealers have discovered that discarding the King will often result in a pair since non-dealer is likely to pitch one. Even so, a non-King X-pointer combination always produces a higher average as a 3-card run often occurs to start with three points and a reasonable chance to cut to the double run for 8.
Ras2829 says: Why not choose defense here? From my perspective and admittedly am more aggressive pegger than Hal, opponent needs 20 holes to reach 2nd street CPZ (3-47)for the upcoming deal. So I'll opt to move down the board and increase my present advantage. Of course would not take pegs which would seem to give my opponent an unnecessary boost. For example, would play a five on an 8 lead and an 8 on a five lead. Would make the count ten on 2 or trey lead. On a four would play a 7, If a six led would play the 8 spot. If a 7 lead, will take the 15-2 as I have the run covered with either the 5 or 6. If a X-pointer wer the lead, would take the 15-2 and escape with the 8 if nd pairs my five. Is this an optimal pegging strategy?
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 7:27 AM
If this had been later in the game where every possible point was more crucial, Q-5 would have been the discard. It his was the opponents crib, Q-6 would be the discard.

The 4 card run has a higher potential for more points so J-Q is discarded. I did not get the cut I really wanted so I'll play a little defense to limit my opponent. A lead of 4 holes going into the play is not receptive to an overly offensive player with these cards. The pone could easily make up some of his deficit in a battle of runs.
james500
3916 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Wednesday 12:51 PM
I'm with Bob today, I can't justify keeping the 5 in my hand for a single point.
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Wednesday 1:45 PM
I don't think there'll be much difference between discarding 5-J or 5-Q overall but as the J has more chance of making a run in the box than the Q I'll just consider 5-J along with the J-Q and 7-8 discards:

6-7-8-Q: 5pts + 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = 12pts

5-6-7-8: 6pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.81) = 10¾pts

5-6-J-Q: 4pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = 10½pts

Potential:

6-7-8-Q: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 555, 666, 777, 888, 9999, QQQ = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 10/12pts with 666, 777, 888 = 9 cuts.

5-6-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 3333, 4444, 555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 10/12/14pts with 2222, 555, 666, 777, 888 = 16 cuts.

5-6-J-Q: Improves with 4444, 555, 666, 777, 9999 + 14xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 10pts with 555 = 3 cuts. Plus 11 diamonds for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

Pegging:

5-6-7-8 will always peg well certainly playing Offense.

Position:

it looks as if we were Openng dealer and have scored 1pt over average and opponent 3pts below in the first two deals. We'll still be playing Defense then for the pegging.

Summary:

6-7-8-Q is 1¼pts higher in starting value than 5-6-7-8 but has many more cuts for improvement and more cuts for a good hand with a better maximum. Also 5-6-7-8 should peg better but lends itself more to a more Offense oriented strategy. I think this will more than make up the 1¼pts so I'll throw the J-Q.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 2:18 PM
At 27*-23 playing a Defense strategy the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W7 %____W8 %
5-6-7-8___9.65+(-2.15)+4.66=12.16____47.8____65.9
6-7-8-Q___7.17+(-2.09)+6.75=11.83____44.5____63.7
6-7-8-J___7.41+(-2.13)+6.47=11.75____45.2____64.3
5-6-J-Q___6.96+(-2.17)+6.40=11.19____43.1____62.0

Defense_______L7 %____L8 %
5-6-7-8_______18.7____13.0
6-7-8-Q_______18.4____14.4
6-7-8-J_______18.4____14.0
5-6-J-Q_______18.8____15.5

5-6-7-8 is best for expected averages by 0.33pt and is also best for Win %s and Loss %s which take account of the board position. So I'll select J-Q to discard.

After the J cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Inushtuk1
1480 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:17 PM
Like our ubiquitous guest said, "It's a no brainier."
LoneStarPegger
811 votes

Joined: January 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:55 PM
Learning has occurred... again.