Thursday 3:22 AM

Close statistics between discarding 3-6 or 3-7 to dealer in this position: toss 3-6 is valued at 4.81 points and 3-7, 4.85 points.

In contrast, tossing 3-6 has the potential for a maximum of 16 points with the cut of (8888) vs. tossing 3-7 for a maximum of 14 points. Both have the same cuts for a maximum of 12 points.

   

Thursday 4:52 AM

Rosemarie44 gives the averages for 3-6 and 3-7 as discards to opponent crib. In this case the 3-6 has an even slightly lower average as we hold a six and don't hold any fives. That delta impact amounts to .16 (RAS has always accepted Coeurdelion's calculation in that regard) and brings the 3-6 potential average down to 4.653. Dealer is in very good position (needs to be 43-47 and already well beyond that) and we are in the "middle of nowhere". Will lead the 7c and escape with the deuce if don't like the direction of the pegging. Don't like it if an 8 played on my 7 as if taking the run I advance the count to 21, a likely run of 4 for dealer plus a go. With my holding 6-6-7-7 unlikely that dealer has a hand centered on mid-cards though. The cut of the Jack gives dealer another two point boost before we even lay the cards down, is of no help to my six-pointer, and offers the consolation that it seems to be of no benefit to my 3-6 discard. Am choosing defense here in attempt to slow dealer down as no chance for me to improve my position on this deal. Nobody has seen the circumstances dire enough to play 6-6-7-7 to cut the 8 for 20 points.

   

Thursday 4:54 AM

Certainly not the two pairs to throw 2-3. My perspective is to lead the two to hopefully hold back opponent from any sizable amount of pegging oportunities or is pegging offensively a seven lead , a better way to play? dec

   

Thursday 5:25 AM

either 36 or 37 unsuited. I think since 3+7=10, I'll toss 37, although 36 isnt bad either.

Lousy cut for me. Lead the 6

   

Thursday 6:16 AM

I'll lead the 7 of clubs.

   

Thursday 7:19 AM

Years ago I used to panic at times like this. Dealer at 51! Must...toss...2....3! and hope for an 8 cut for 20 pts or a 5 cut for 16 pts.
Now days I mostly keep my cool at times like this and hope the luck changes just enough to pull out a win.

   

Thursday 9:32 AM

Not going to discard a 2 and 3,not going to discard any pair, so that leaves discarding the 3 and a 6 for 7. The dealer might discard a 5 so I went with discarding the 3 and 6.

   

Thursday 11:44 AM

I tossed the (3-6) because the 7 is a key connector and I try not to toss two of those over the board if I can help it. Was I just lucky that this keep has the higher maximum hand value? Or did the key connector factor have anything to do with it? I don't know. The negative delta with (3-6) is just a bonus.

Although my discard was defensive I'll be playing offense during the pegging to get as far down the board as possible. Leading the 7c. I'll take the (15-2) on an ace or deuce reply. On the 4 reply I'll play my 6, enticing Dealer to play a 5 making the count (22-4). My second 7 makes the count (29-4). Hoping for the GO, and my 2 closes the count at (31-2). I'll take every pair, or (15-2) offered. On a 9 reply will dump my deuce. On an X-card reply I'll play my other 7 to disguise my hand as much as possible. This makes the count (24). Hoping for a 5 to bump the count up to (29), where my deuce closes the count at (31-2) once again. This may be a bit too risky as it leaves me vulnerable to a (31-4) from the Dealer. But hey, danger is my middle name. Actually it's Jerome. But don't tell anyone.

   

Thursday 12:55 PM

3-6d from me too.

   

Thursday 1:45 PM

At 46-51* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib___Total___W5 %___W6 %
2-6-7-7*__8.65+(-2.93)+(-4.10)=1.62____10.1___16.0
2-6-6-7*__8.78+(-3.15)+(-4.47)=1.16____10.3___15.6

Defense______L5 %____L6 %
2-6-7-7*_____31.7____60.6
2-6-6-7*_____33.1____61.7

* unsuited discards

2-6-7-7 is 0.46pt better for expected averages than 2-6-6-7 and is also slightly better for both Win %s and Loss %s which take account of the board position. So I'll select 3C-6D to discard.

After the J cut I'll lead a 7 and play Offense:

Lead____Our Pegging Pts.
7____________1.33
2____________1.00
6____________0.99

   

Thursday 4:59 PM

It is apparent that its between 2-6-6-7 (3-7D) and 2-6-7-7 (3-6D) but which is better?:

2-6-6-7C: 6pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.01) = +1pts

2-6C-7-7: 6pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.87) = +1pts

Potential:

2-6-6-7: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 5555, 66, 77, 8888, 9999 = 26pts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 10/12/14pts with 222, 5555, 66, 77, 8888, 9999 = 19 cuts.

2-6-7-7: Improves with AAAA, 222, 5555, 666, 77, 8888, 9999 = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 12/16pts with 222, 5555, 66, 77, 8888 = 15 cuts.

Pegging:

Not much difference in the pegging but if we lead a 7 from 2-6-7-7 I think its better than a 7 from 2-6-6-7 overall.

Position:

We're already at 2nd street CPZ but at 51pts opponent is well past and could reach 3rd street CPZ for next deal. I think we need to try to hold them back as much as possible.

Summary:

2-6-6-7 has more cuts for improvement and more cuts for a good hand 10-14pts. 2-6-7-7 has a higher maximum though at 16pts and I believe will peg slightly better. As pointed out it has JQT's sweet sixteen and of course leading the 7 we have a chance to pair. But I think the biggest difference here is the discard. Unsuited 3-6 scores less than 3-7 in opponent's box anyway according to Schell if only by 0.14pt. I think this is because any combination that adds up to 10 is likely to match any 5 discarded by Dealer (or 5 combination). But not only this with 3-6 there is significant negative delta as the 6 we hold deprives the crib of a pair and a 15 and also the 7s stymie runs. In fact the negative delta is the most significant factor so I'll throw the unsuited 3-6.

   

Thursday 8:37 PM

Another thing learned today.