Friday 3:05 AM

Can't risk the 2 4 with dealer at 14. Leading a 6 and defense.

   

Friday 3:19 AM

Love the 6-6-4 combo as non dealer. If dealer has any combination of face cards and fives the pegging goes: 6(6) X(16) 6(22) 5(27) 4(31) for five pegs.

   

Friday 3:22 AM

I am not with the majority this morning. I chose to toss 2-4 in this position holding the highest expected hand, highest combined value (avg. exp hand minus crib) and has the most cuts for improvement.

   

Friday 4:09 AM

Gotta keep 669, chose to hold the 4 to prevent a 5 cut. 28 to the other guys crib is the safest way to go this time. Lead the 6, and there may be a 5 to be trapped with the 64.

   

Friday 4:19 AM

Got greedy, too many good ways to excell.

   

Friday 4:58 AM

Playing the odds for defense with the lead here. dec

   

Friday 4:58 AM

Tossing wide to the crib rather than 2-4.

   

Friday 5:19 AM

Agree with most, 2-8. Leading a 6 for the same reason as Gary.

   

Friday 11:05 AM

Anytime you can hold 4-6-6 and another card for 2-6 points, the pegging potential of the 4-6-6 with the lead of the six is the way to go. It's and high percentage trap play to close the count at 31-5. If you six draws a X-point response, make the count 22 as glmccuskey shows so well above. if dealer holding a hand with 5's and 10's there is a way to avoid the 31-5. Just drop the five on the six lead and give up 15-5. This is a high percentage trap play with no escape. Go for it when you have the chance. If looking for this opportunity,you can sometimes pull it off twice in a single game. Based on my scant empirical data, whether playing defense optimal or offense as non-dealer, lead from the sixes.

   

Friday 2:08 PM

I decided to discard the 2 and 4. Hoping for a 7 cut. Could have gone with tossing the 2 and 8 which is the popular discard. The probability of a 7 being cut is the same as the for the 5.

   

Friday 2:59 PM

I think there are 2 probable hands to look at - 6-6-8-9 (2-4) and 4-6-6-9 (2-8):

6-6-8-9: 6pts - 5¼pts (Schell: 5.33) = +¾pt

4-6-6-9: 6pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.94) = +1pt

Potential:

6-6-8-9: Improves with AAAA, 3333, 66, 7777, 888, 999, 10101010 = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 10/12/16pts with AAAA, 66, 7777, 999 = 13 cuts.

4-6-6-9: Improves with 222, 3333, 444, 5555, 66, 999 = 19 cuts = 19/46 = 41.3% up to 12/16pts with 5555, 66, 999 = 9 cuts.

Pegging:

Playing Offense I think 6-6-8-9 will peg better. Playing Defense perhaps 4-6-6-9.

Position:

We have a lead over the opponent and so I think we ought to play Defense for the pegging but sometimes I believe we have to play to the strengths of the hand and both these hands lend themselves to playing Offense.

Summary:

6-6-8-9 has more cuts for improvement and more for a good hand 10-16pts. I think that playing Offense 6-6-8-9 will peg well but with 6-6-4-? we can try to trap a 5 if Dealer holds 5-X-X-X or 5-5-X-X. So although 2-4 seems risky because 2-3 is a popular discard by Dealer in reality there's only 0.39pt difference to 2-8. Therefore I'll risk the 2-4.

   

Friday 4:06 PM

At 24-14* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib___Total___W7 %___W8 %
6-6-8-9___8.43+(-2.63)+(-5.02)=0.78____21.0___45.5
4-6-6-9___7.96+(-2.67)+(-4.70)=0.59____21.1___46.4
2-6-6-9___7.61+(-2.57)+(-4.56)=0.48____17.9___43.3

Defense______L7 %____L8 %
6-6-8-9______11.3____25.5
4-6-6-9______10.6____24.6
2-6-6-9______10.5____25.7

6-6-8-9 is best for expected averages by 0.19pt although 4-6-6-9 is best for Win %s and Loss %s by a slight margin. As its early in the game I'll put more weight on the expected averages. So I'll select 2-4 to discard.

After the Q cut I'll lead a 6 and play Defense:

Lead________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
6_________________(-2.21)
8_________________(-2.44)
9_________________(-2.50)