Saturday 3:31 AM

Tossing 9-9 to my crib and holding a hand that increases with every cut for a minimum of 7 to a maximum of 12 points. Combined value for this is hand is slightly higher than tossing 5-7 or 2-5 at 14.98 points.

   

Saturday 3:50 AM

I'd like to keep the run together, so I'm left with a choice between 9-9 and 2-9.

6 response to an X lead.

   

Saturday 3:54 AM

Went with the sure six and sending the five and the two off to my crib to build another good hand?

   

Saturday 5:27 AM

Nice puzzle. My gut reaction was to toss myself the 25. Thought about it and decided on the 99 instead. Was I right the first time? I can account for 7+1+2 so I need to peg a bit.

   

Saturday 6:05 AM

Play on offense. So eight lead yes, nine lead yes, face lead yes. Two lead? dec

   

Saturday 6:22 AM

I agree

   

Saturday 6:43 AM

Kept the run intact with the magic 11. 2-5 may be a little stronger than the 9-9 to our crib, but I liked the superior pegging flexibility of 2-5-6-7 vs. 6-7-9-9 as first dealer. And as Rosemarie states above, 2-5-6-7 improves with every cut.
Ace lead, I'll play my 5 (we know two 9's are in the crib). 2 lead, I'll play off with my 7. 3 lead, play my 7. 4 lead, I might play my 2 since I can cover possible run scenario. 5 lead, play the 2. 6 lead, play 2. 7 lead, play the 2. 8 lead, play the 6. 9 lead, play the 6. '10' lead, I sometimes play off with the 6, but with the sub-par cut, I might play on with the 5.

   

Saturday 7:19 AM

The 2-5-6-7 has a lopsided advantage with potential hands score as all 46 remaining cards ad value. With the 6-7-9-9, only 222, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, and 99 add value. In addition 2-5-6-7 offers better pegging prospects regardless of whether choosing defense, optimal or offense. mfetchCT425's post above shows how this hand can work in pegging sequences. True the 2-5 to crib has the higher average of 5.536 (513) 17/91. That compares to the 9-9 with average of 5.213 (1,148) 25/91. Both averages are static and no deduction has been made for delta. Guess the presence of the six spot in hand would bring the 9-9 average down to 5.197. That small crib edge is overwhelmed by the potential hand score and pegging of 2-5-6-7. So again we see a hand that echoes "don't keep the points!" We see them by the hundreds on this site over time.

   

Saturday 8:59 AM

Discarded the pair of 9s. I got a nice 3 card run and a pair in the crib. Life is good.

   

Saturday 2:09 PM

Perhaps worth considering 2-5-6-7 (9-9), 6-7-9-9 (2-5) and 2-6-9-9 (5-7):

2-5-6-7: 5pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.16) = 10¼pts

6-7-9-9: 6pts + 5½pts (Schell: 5.45) = 11½pts

2-6-9-9: 6pts + 6pts (Schell: 6.01) = 12pts

Potential:

2-5-6-7: Improves with AAAA, 222 3333, 4444, 555, 666, 777, 8888, 99 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 10/11/12pts with 222, 555, 666, 777, 8888 = 16 cuts.

6-7-9-9: Improves with 222, 555, 666, 777, 8888, 99 = 18 cuts = 18/46 = 39.1% up to 9/12/16pts with 555, 666, 8888, 99 = 12 cuts.

2-6-9-9: Improves with 222, 4444, 666, 777, 99 = 15 cuts = 15/46 = 32.65 up to 10/12pts with 4444, 666, 99 = 9 cuts.

Pegging:

I think 2-5-6-7 will peg best with the run and magic eleven but playing Defense perhaps 2-6-9-9 will peg better?

Position:

As Opening dealer we will be playing Defense and hoping to achieve 16pts or more but giving as few points away to Pone as possible.

Summary:

2-5-6-7 starts with the least points but has very good potential with a guaranteed cut to 7pts or more and 16 cuts for a good hand 10-12pts (16/46=34.8%). So despite starting with 1¼ - 1¾pts less I feel it will more than make this up. It also should peg reasonably well Defensively. So I'll throw the 9s.

   

Saturday 2:24 PM

At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W9 %____W10 %
6-7-9-9___7.98+(-2.20)+5.57=11.35____40.2____53.0
2-6-9-9___7.26+(-1.98)+6.03=11.31____39.0____52.9
2-5-6-7___8.46+(-2.00)+4.82=11.28____42.1____54.2

Defense_______L9 %____L10 %
6-7-9-9_______25.8____21.9
2-6-9-9_______24.8____21.7
2-5-6-7_______26.4____21.2

6-7-9-9 is better than 2-6-9-9 by 0.04pts and 2-5-6-7 by 0.07pts. However 2-5-6-7 is slightly better for Win %s and approximately even for Loss %s. Despite the fact that its at the very beginning of the game when I would put most emphasis on the expected averages because the margin of difference is so small I will select on the Win %s and discard the 9-9.

After the Q cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

   

Saturday 3:32 PM

Playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the expected averages would be:

_______________Net
Defense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total
2-5-6-7___8.46+2.00+4.82=15.28
6-7-9-9___7.98+0.78+5.57=14.33
2-6-6-9___7.26+0.54+6.03=13.83

Playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the expected averages would be:

_______________Our
Defense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total
2-5-6-7___8.46+4.00+4.82=17.28
6-7-9-9___7.98+2.98+5.57=16.53
2-6-6-9___7.26+2.52+6.03=15.81

I am, however, recommending a Defense strategy for the pegging.