June 25, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by Steevo
48-34*  ?
51%
22%
19%
4%
0%
0%
Total votes: 123
james500
3924 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Sunday 3:08 AM
I'll discard Ad-3 and lead the 4 from the 4-A-6 combo.

Every cut bar a 2 will improve my hand, the 5 has given me 14 points.
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 3:20 AM
I posted this morning and find that it is missing from the site!!!!!
Chose offense by tossing A-A to dealer. This hand increases with every cut for a minimum of 8 points to a maximum of 16 points. Combined value is slightly higher than tossing A-3.
dec
6359 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 3:41 AM
With a chance for third street engage. dec
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 4:33 AM
With 48 in the bank. I play to minimize opponent. This hand improves with every cut and should put me well ahead of the 44 I need on my next deal.
Ras2829 says: Hi joekayak: The only way you could miss having 44 on the next deal would be to peg backward. Don't do it and your opponent will probably slap your fingers if you try.
Gougie00
5731 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 4:56 AM
I'm keeping the 4-run. Hoping the AA doesnt hit the dealers 23 in the crib. The cut gives me 14. Lead the 3 and attempt to play off if possible. I have no escape card and may have to engage in the pegging.

Good Luck to all that will play in Brookline in a few hours. 4.5 miles from home for me!
Ras2829
5155 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 5:26 AM
Non-dealer holding A-4-5-6 represents one of the finest pegging hands in crib (2-3-4-6 plays out the same way). RAS does not miss many opportunities to hold these four cards. Like my position with a 14-point lead and this hand represents a bonus opportunity to move down the board. Folks often look at the A-A in the way they look at K-K. "They're at the end of the deck and can only be built on in one direction. The Aces work in many ways and have a very healthy average to opponent of 5.592 (383). Will lead the Ace and take pegs as offered. Note holding suited A-4-5 offers chance to fake a flush in the pegging.
Ras2829 says: If baer1 does not respond to james500 inquiry, her is the logic behind RAS' choice to lead the Ace although in most other hands, would lead the four. Folks love to make the count 11 even when holding 5-9-10-J or similar. Play the four for 15-2, the four at that points forces the five if held off the play, count advances to 25,and non-dealer plays the 6 for 31-2. Non-dealer still retains the five to 15-2 the frequent X-point presentation. Also by leading off the bottom of the hand we keep three cards of sequence intact as dealer may be playing some small cards that fit between our Ace and 4. Beyond that since retaining the 4-5 nd just might pick off a stray six as is present in the frequent hand 6-9-10-J or similar. Also like this hand on a nine response to the nd Ace lead. Take the a5-2 with the five spot. If dealer position is weak will often pair the five for 20 to which nd responds with the 6 and a usual go to score the run of three.
Ras2829 says: BTW if you've trained your eye to look for this fine scoring, pegging hand as non-dealer it is frequently available. Unlike today where we needed to choose between A-A and A-3 as discards, it often is accompanied by very low-scoring discards to opponent crib. When retaining A-4-5-6 which is helped by every cut except the deuce and the pegging potential as pointed out, combined values favor discards such as 10-K, 10-Q, Q-K, 9-K, 9-Q, 8-K, 8-Q, 8-J, 7-10, 7-Q, and 7-K. In all those situations, holding five points with A-4-5-6 will lead more combined points (hand score, pegs, less crib score) than will holding one of the large cards with 4-5-6 for 7 points. Think Inushtuk1 is right when he says that he has better success with this hand than with the 2-3-4-6. RAS often comment on the value of 2-3-4-6 as learned about that early in my playing career. Only in the past 15 years have I learned of the value of A-4-5-6. It's there a whole lot of the time; play it for all its worth. Can effect the outcome of many games and often results in 14 points as todays cut yields.
Ras2829 says: Bravo for Steevo! If you're in the audience, your puzzle led to many substantive comments and had great instructional value. If not in the audience, it's past time to step forward in regular and dramatic fashion.
Inushtuk1 says: Yup.
Inushtuk1 says: Hey, what about the A-4-5-6-Q-K? Again toss that (Q-K) I think.
glmccuskey
4102 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Sunday 6:45 AM
RAS says it all.
bbaer1
3693 votes

Joined: February 2011
 
 
 
Sunday 7:40 AM
Relish this hold as non-dealer. Used to lead a four from this, but have learned to lead the Ace.
james500 says: Hi Brian. I've discarded as you have, and intend to lead the 4. Would you mind explaining to me why you now favour the lead of the Ace instead.
bbaer1 says: I've found that the Ace lead disguises the hand better and often will let you score points on a mid-card reply.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi James. Allow me to answer, in case Brian does not get back to you. He may be busy at Brookline right now. The Ace lead has 5 common responses. The 5, 9, 8, 6, and any X-card. If you follow that through, you will see that we draw first blood on each of those. I won't bore every one with all the details; but if you play out all the possibilities on the *uncommon* responses, you will see there are plenty of run possibilities after enticing a (15-2) from the Dealer. Either that, or Dealer scores a run for 3, and we can extend the run. With the A lead there is no need to pray for the common Dealer hand of X-X-X-X and our (15-2), (31-2), and again (15-2) on the second play series. Not that there's anything wrong with that either. Best wishes, Inush. P.S. Sorry Brian if I stole some of your thunder, and good luck to everyone at Brookline. Hope to see you people in 2 weeks in Bangor.
Inushtuk1 says: That Brian guy is *so* much more concise than someone who will remain nameless. ; - )
bbaer1 says: No thunder to steal here. Both you and Ras above expounding on the subject help increase the understanding of why the Ace is the better lead in this case.
james500 says: Thanks to everyone who responded to my query.
Inushtuk1 says: You're welcome.
Inushtuk1
1488 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 9:14 AM
I've chosen the red (A- 3) as well. Using Ras's crib averages the expected averages are slightly better for the (A-A) as Rosemarie points out. But the (A-3) has at least 0.32 points of negative delta with us holding another ace and a 4. This makes the expected averages pretty much a wash. But as Colvert says, "3-4-5-6 is a tough hand to lead from when you are the non-dealer." And A-4-5-6 is the best along with 2-3-4-6. In fact I do better with the former than the latter. Is that because the A-4-5-6 adds up to 16 and the latter adds up to 15 only? I have no idea.

I am choosing optimal leaning toward defense strategy. But no matter your strategy before the cut A-4-5-6 is the way to go because it pegs so much better offensively, defensively, and optimally than 3-4-5-6.

With that 5 on the deck we can now switch to offense. We could fairly easily be dealing from 3rd Street CPZ next hand. If so and can deal ourselves a good hand we might be looking at putting 3 points on our score card instead of 2.

Leading the A on offense. The 4 would be better on defense though. The A lead just has so much going for it.
Ras2829 says: Delynn Colvert's assessment of the difficulty of leading from the 3-4-5-6 is so valid. It seems to me that the 6 might be the best lead hoping to draw a a pair. I have often led the trey, hoping for a six response to find that more than half the time dealer only drops the 6 when holding two sixes. As a result I score 15-4 and the dealer gets six pegs for a triple and I can't do a thing about the 21 count. Doesn't seem that the four lead does a thing with this hand. Haven't considered how the lead of the five might pan out.
Inushtuk1 says: Thanks for that Ras. It's nice to know you are still "evolving" like the rest of us; as I seem to recall on the videos, you advocated the 3 lead. I will try the 6. Maybe a few play-outs and see what happens.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. At this score, and these 6 cards, if we were to choose the long run, the professor says the 4 is the best defensive lead using his peg average tables. I guess this is because it breaks up the run, putting a small amount of space between the 3, and the 6. The 3 would be the next best. Then the 6; with the 5 the worst. On offense he likes the 3 the best, followed by the 5, 4, and 6 in that order. For what it's worth.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi again Ras. "... and I can't do a thing about the 21 count." But if Dealer has all mid cards, your 4-5 will score (30-4), and you have outpegged the Dealer 8-6 on the first play series. With Dealer showing you two 6's, this is a likely scenario I would imagine.
spin121 says: If playing defense I will drop any old 6 on a 3 lead. Don't need to be holding 2 of them. Can only be hit with one of the three 6s left in the deck. This defensive play is kind of scary because opponent gets 15-4 if he has a 6. But it works at a very high percentage rate.
Inushtuk1 says: I agree spin121, and I do this as well. I was told this was a mistake on my part. I tried to explain that this was a percentage play, but I don't think he bought my argument. There are no tournament level players at my club, so I don't bother trying to press home the point.
james500 says: I'll add my name to the list of people who might defensively play a 6 on a 3 lead. By that stage of the play, you will have seen your six cards, plus the starter, plus Pone's led 3 (8 cards total). Assuming the location of the other three sixes is still unknown, the likelihood that Pone can score is: (3/44)*100=6.8%, which is another way of saying that 93.2% of the time they won't. For the same reason, a 7 on a led Ace, 4 on a 7, or 3 on a 9 can often workout ok too.
Inushtuk1 says: Yup.
Ras2829 says: Agree on playing a six on a trey lead as being a percentage play as those 3-6-9 combinations are held far less frequently than the trey (or plural) with one or more deuces with 2-2-3 or 2-3-3-X being most common. Those who have been around a while will dump a six spot on trey; newer players will often shake their head at the thought of a 15-4 and make another choice.
BigFoot Bob
624 votes

Joined: April 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 10:52 AM
I tossed the Aces today. Keeping the four card run gives me four card out of thirteen that I could hit a double run.
The_Bee_Mann
306 votes

Joined: November 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 2:04 PM
I will always keep the 4-5-6. Lots of potential. Don't like to toss a pair anyway. So discard A-3. Looks like I did ok with the cut.
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Sunday 3:05 PM
I think it will be between the A-A and A-3 discard:

3-4-5-6: 6pts - 6pts (Schell: 6.02) = 0pt

A-4-5-6: 5pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.07) = 0pt

Potential:

3-4-5-6: Improves with AA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 9/14/16pts with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 666, 7777 = 20 cuts.

A-4-5-6: Improves with AA, 333, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 12/14pts with 444, 555, 666, 9999 + 16xXs = 29 cuts.

Pegging:

Both hands will peg well but I think A-4-5-6 will peg best with a 3-card magic eleven.

Position:

We are already past 2nd street par-hole so should play Defense to maintain our lead.

Summary:

3-4-5-6 has more cuts for improvement and 20 cuts for a good/very good hand at 9-16pts. It also should peg well playing Offense. However, A-4-5-6 has nearly as many cuts for improvement with 29 cuts for 9-14pts and also I think it will peg better playing Defense. I think it may be close but I'll throw the lower scoring A-3.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 3:26 PM
At 48-34* playing an offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib___Total___W5 %___W6 %
A-4-5-6___8.91+(-2.67)+(-4.53)=1.71____18.1___60.3
3-4-5-6___9.87+(-2.98)+(-5.59)=1.30____17.8___57.5

Defense______L5 %____L6 %
A-4-5-6______3.4_____13.7
3-4-5-6______4.0_____15.7

A-4-5-6 is better for expected averages by 0.41pt and is also better for Win %s and Loss %s which take account of the board position. So I'll select AD-3 to discard and keep the fake flush.

After the 5 cut I'll lead the A and play Optimally (cautious offense):

Lead____Net Pegging Pts.
A____________0.34
4____________0.07
6__________(-0.78)
5__________(-1.47)