August 8, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by Matthew
78-87*  ?
65%
23%
6%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 165

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Rosemarie44
551 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Tuesday 3:12 AM
I looked at tossing 3-K and K-K to opponent. These hands start with 7 points and 6 points, respectively. Combined values are 5.27 points (9.70 minus crib 4.43) and 4.28 points (9.87 minus crib 5.59). The small run is heavily weighted at 8 points and giving up 2 points to opponent.
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dec
3703 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Tuesday 3:44 AM
The non suited K-3 also. My lead pick is The King will attempt to go for the 4-5-6 for five if the opportunity presents itself. dec
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james500
1500 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Tuesday 3:52 AM
I'd be interested to hear from Ras, or anybody else who has the figures, how frequently does a KK discard result in a crib of only two points? K3 is obviously responsible for more 0 point cribs, but I suspect more 8+ cribs also. Had this been the first hand of the game, I would've chanced it and kept 3-4-5-6. Here though, I'll go with 4-5-6-Kh.
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glmccuskey
2370 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Tuesday 5:32 AM
Needing to peg I'll lead the king.
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Gougie00
3235 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Tuesday 6:17 AM
I need offense more than defense. I'll toss the Kings and hold my breath.
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JRCeagle78
273 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Tuesday 6:43 AM
With a King in the kitty, I'll lead with the King.
The 9 cut at first glance does nothing for the kitty so the dealer hopefully will not stretch his lead too much. With some good defense and some opportune pegging we could cut his lead to 6 or 7 holes.
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juniemonster
1 votes

Joined: August 2017

   
Tuesday 8:10 AM
I've played cribbage off and on for decades--with some decades entirely skipped--but am new here. Given the low percentage that KK will vastly help with crib points, and the closeness of hand values between the primary choices, I'd discard the KK for two reasons: 1) potential, and 2) under my assumption that face cards are rather useless in the pegging, give me another low card to make points in that phase.
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Inushtuk1
314 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Tuesday 8:35 AM
I would love to take the plunge with junie, and gougie; and keep the long run. But like Rosemarie44 says, it usually winds up with a hand value of just 8 points. And the Dealer usually makes out like a bandit pegging wise when Pone holds this long run. I've finally decided that 4-5-6-X, when available is best for Pone. As Dealer with these cards I'd be all over the long run, and the pair in my crib of course. Even the lowly (K-K).

The K lead sure sounds like good advice.
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Coeurdelion
3204 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Tuesday 12:51 PM
I think its between 4-5-6-KH (3-KD) and 3-4-5-6-(K-K). But 3-4-5-K might be worth looking at as well as it improves with nearly every cut and the 6-K should be safest but it only starts with 5pts:

4-5-6-KH: 7pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.48) = +2½pts

3-4-5-6: 6pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.65) = +¼pt

3-4-5-K: 5pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.14) = +¾pt

Potential:

4-5-6-KH: Improves with AAAA, 333, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 9999 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 11/14/16pts with 444, 555, 666, KK = 11 cuts.

3-4-5-6: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 14pts with 333, 444, 555, 666 = 12 cuts.

3-4-5-K: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 8888 + 14xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 10/12pts with 333, 444, 555 = 9 cuts.

Pegging:

I think all these hands will peg quite well but with all low cards perhaps 3-4-5-6 the best.

Position:

We need 18pts with hand and pegging to reach 4th street par-hole so I'll play all out Offense.

Summary:

4-5-6-KH has fewer cuts for improvement than 3-4-5-6 but has a better maximum and nearly as many cuts for a good hand. Both will peg well but the main difference is the 2¼pts higher starting value of 4-5-6-KH and it provides the best chance of reaching 96pts. So I'll throw 3-KD.
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HalscribCLX
2949 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Tuesday 1:06 PM
At 78-87* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense____Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W2 %___W3 %
4-5-6-KH___9.70+1.13+(-4.17)=6.66____1.1____19.8
3-4-5-6____9.87+1.33+(-5.35)=5.85____1.6____20.5
3-4-5-K____7.91+1.48+(-3.85)=5.54____0.5____14.7

Offense_______L2 %___L3 %
4-5-6-KH_______9.6____61.5
3-4-5-6_______13.6____64.4
3-4-5-K________8.1____64.7

4-5-6-KH is best for expected averages by 0.81pt and although 3-4-5-6 is slightly better for Win %s it is significantly worse for Loss %s. So I'll select the unsuited 3-K to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll lead the 6 and play Offense:

Lead________Our Pegging Pts.
6________________1.51
4________________1.45
K________________1.43
5________________1.13
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Ras2829
2730 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Tuesday 1:22 PM
It's offense, offense, offense. The chances to win a game in this position is about 1/6 based on my scant empirical data. When seeing a 6 or 9 on deck with these cards and playing offense, will lead the 6 spot and take any pegs offered knowing that I have nine points which will put me in the middle of nowhere to deal. If the cut had been a 5 spot for 16 points, would have led the King which elicits an Ace in response. How do 3-K and K-K compare? They're miles apart! The 3-K averages 4.434 (1,750) 16/91 and the K-K weighs in at 5.589 (236) 59/91. Although holding 3-4-5-6 does offer some added pegging value, in no way does it make up for the great disparity in crib values between 3-K and K-K. HalscribCLX shows the added pegging value of the 3-4-5-6 at .2 of a point and that looks right to me. Of course the same discards to own crib are much lower scoring. Why might that be?
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