August 8, 2017
*** This hand was suggested by Matthew
|Total votes: 165|
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Joined: March 2016
Tuesday 3:12 AM
I looked at tossing 3-K and K-K to opponent. These hands start with 7 points and 6 points, respectively. Combined values are 5.27 points (9.70 minus crib 4.43) and 4.28 points (9.87 minus crib 5.59). The small run is heavily weighted at 8 points and giving up 2 points to opponent.
Joined: April 2008
Tuesday 3:44 AM
The non suited K-3 also. My lead pick is The King will attempt to go for the 4-5-6 for five if the opportunity presents itself. dec
Joined: June 2013
Tuesday 3:52 AM
I'd be interested to hear from Ras, or anybody else who has the figures, how frequently does a KK discard result in a crib of only two points? K3 is obviously responsible for more 0 point cribs, but I suspect more 8+ cribs also. Had this been the first hand of the game, I would've chanced it and kept 3-4-5-6. Here though, I'll go with 4-5-6-Kh.
Joined: April 2011
Tuesday 5:32 AM
Needing to peg I'll lead the king.
Joined: March 2008
Tuesday 6:17 AM
I need offense more than defense. I'll toss the Kings and hold my breath.
Joined: June 2016
Tuesday 6:43 AM
With a King in the kitty, I'll lead with the King.
The 9 cut at first glance does nothing for the kitty so the dealer hopefully will not stretch his lead too much. With some good defense and some opportune pegging we could cut his lead to 6 or 7 holes.
Joined: August 2017
Tuesday 8:10 AM
I've played cribbage off and on for decades--with some decades entirely skipped--but am new here. Given the low percentage that KK will vastly help with crib points, and the closeness of hand values between the primary choices, I'd discard the KK for two reasons: 1) potential, and 2) under my assumption that face cards are rather useless in the pegging, give me another low card to make points in that phase.
Joined: July 2016
Tuesday 8:35 AM
I would love to take the plunge with junie, and gougie; and keep the long run. But like Rosemarie44 says, it usually winds up with a hand value of just 8 points. And the Dealer usually makes out like a bandit pegging wise when Pone holds this long run. I've finally decided that 4-5-6-X, when available is best for Pone. As Dealer with these cards I'd be all over the long run, and the pair in my crib of course. Even the lowly (K-K).
The K lead sure sounds like good advice.
Joined: October 2007
Tuesday 12:51 PM
I think its between 4-5-6-KH (3-KD) and 3-4-5-6-(K-K). But 3-4-5-K might be worth looking at as well as it improves with nearly every cut and the 6-K should be safest but it only starts with 5pts:
4-5-6-KH: 7pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.48) = +2½pts
3-4-5-6: 6pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.65) = +¼pt
3-4-5-K: 5pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.14) = +¾pt
4-5-6-KH: Improves with AAAA, 333, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 9999 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 11/14/16pts with 444, 555, 666, KK = 11 cuts.
3-4-5-6: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 14pts with 333, 444, 555, 666 = 12 cuts.
3-4-5-K: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 8888 + 14xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 10/12pts with 333, 444, 555 = 9 cuts.
I think all these hands will peg quite well but with all low cards perhaps 3-4-5-6 the best.
We need 18pts with hand and pegging to reach 4th street par-hole so I'll play all out Offense.
4-5-6-KH has fewer cuts for improvement than 3-4-5-6 but has a better maximum and nearly as many cuts for a good hand. Both will peg well but the main difference is the 2¼pts higher starting value of 4-5-6-KH and it provides the best chance of reaching 96pts. So I'll throw 3-KD.
Joined: February 2008
Tuesday 1:06 PM
At 78-87* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
Offense____Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W2 %___W3 %
Offense_______L2 %___L3 %
4-5-6-KH is best for expected averages by 0.81pt and although 3-4-5-6 is slightly better for Win %s it is significantly worse for Loss %s. So I'll select the unsuited 3-K to discard.
After the 9 cut I'll lead the 6 and play Offense:
Lead________Our Pegging Pts.
Joined: November 2008
Tuesday 1:22 PM
It's offense, offense, offense. The chances to win a game in this position is about 1/6 based on my scant empirical data. When seeing a 6 or 9 on deck with these cards and playing offense, will lead the 6 spot and take any pegs offered knowing that I have nine points which will put me in the middle of nowhere to deal. If the cut had been a 5 spot for 16 points, would have led the King which elicits an Ace in response. How do 3-K and K-K compare? They're miles apart! The 3-K averages 4.434 (1,750) 16/91 and the K-K weighs in at 5.589 (236) 59/91. Although holding 3-4-5-6 does offer some added pegging value, in no way does it make up for the great disparity in crib values between 3-K and K-K. HalscribCLX shows the added pegging value of the 3-4-5-6 at .2 of a point and that looks right to me. Of course the same discards to own crib are much lower scoring. Why might that be?