August 8, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by Matthew
78-87*  ?
65%
23%
6%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 165
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:12 AM
I looked at tossing 3-K and K-K to opponent. These hands start with 7 points and 6 points, respectively. Combined values are 5.27 points (9.70 minus crib 4.43) and 4.28 points (9.87 minus crib 5.59). The small run is heavily weighted at 8 points and giving up 2 points to opponent.
dec
6359 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:44 AM
The non suited K-3 also. My lead pick is The King will attempt to go for the 4-5-6 for five if the opportunity presents itself. dec
james500
3924 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:52 AM
I'd be interested to hear from Ras, or anybody else who has the figures, how frequently does a KK discard result in a crib of only two points? K3 is obviously responsible for more 0 point cribs, but I suspect more 8+ cribs also. Had this been the first hand of the game, I would've chanced it and kept 3-4-5-6. Here though, I'll go with 4-5-6-Kh.
glmccuskey
4102 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:32 AM
Needing to peg I'll lead the king.
Gougie00
5731 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:17 AM
I need offense more than defense. I'll toss the Kings and hold my breath.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:43 AM
With a King in the kitty, I'll lead with the King.
The 9 cut at first glance does nothing for the kitty so the dealer hopefully will not stretch his lead too much. With some good defense and some opportune pegging we could cut his lead to 6 or 7 holes.
juniemonster
1 votes

Joined: August 2017
 
 
 
Tuesday 8:10 AM
I've played cribbage off and on for decades--with some decades entirely skipped--but am new here. Given the low percentage that KK will vastly help with crib points, and the closeness of hand values between the primary choices, I'd discard the KK for two reasons: 1) potential, and 2) under my assumption that face cards are rather useless in the pegging, give me another low card to make points in that phase.
Inushtuk1 says: Welcome juniemonster. I used to always hold this long run. But have been burned *way* too many times as Pone. If you have a secret for how Pone can peg well with this hand, please share with us. Because I *rarely* do well with this hand pegging wise. This seems to be one of those times where one X-pointer gives us much improved pegging chances, both offensively and defensively. Best wishes, and enjoy the site.
Rosemarie44 says: Welcome. I would like to share a website (no downloading necessary) with detailed discard and hand statistics you may be interested in checking out. As I have an Apple computer most software programs are unavailable for download but this site is a nice option.
wwjcbuck says: Rosemarie, what's the web site you want to share?
Rosemarie44 says: Hi jcbuck. Apologize got interrupted. site: cliambrown.com. It has recently been update for a new look.
Inushtuk1
1488 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 8:35 AM
I would love to take the plunge with junie, and gougie; and keep the long run. But like Rosemarie44 says, it usually winds up with a hand value of just 8 points. And the Dealer usually makes out like a bandit pegging wise when Pone holds this long run. I've finally decided that 4-5-6-X, when available is best for Pone. As Dealer with these cards I'd be all over the long run, and the pair in my crib of course. Even the lowly (K-K).

The K lead sure sounds like good advice.
Inushtuk1 says: You know there is another way to lead with this hand. Lead the 6. Disguise our hand somewhat. Make Dealer think we have 6's and 9's. Hopefully Dealer has all face cards, and makes the count 16. If we're *really* fortunate our K scores (26-2). But if not, we still get (31-2) with our 5. Call it a Magic 21 if you want. The 9 on top of the deck gives a bit of insurance against the logical 9 reply from the Dealer.
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: Think there are other factors at play here which the cribbot may not be able to find in an algorithm. Often dealer will avoid pegging on the 6 or 9 lead figuring given superior position trading pegs with non-dealer does not make sense. In addition a 6 or 9 lead with a 6 or 9 on deck conjures up memories of those 18 and 20-point hands. Very good point you make above
Inushtuk1 says: Thank you Ras. You know I was just wondering if you saw that 6 or 9 on the deck would it be better as dealer to switch to offense yourself, or play even tighter? Also I want to take you back in my time machine to June, 25, 2017. We had a hand where the most popular option was 3-4-5-6 as Pone. I brought up Colvert's comment about how awkward 3-4-5-6 was for Pone to lead from. You said in the past you led the trey, but found Dealer did not pair it unless he had a pair himself. You thought maybe the 6 might be better and had not considered how the 5 lead might pan out. I said I would do some play-outs and see what happens. I apologize for not getting back with those results. Here they are now for what it's worth. With the 5 lead I pegged 43 points in 24 playouts on offense and Dealer scored 119 for a net of -76. I did slightly better with the 6 lead with 51 points. But I gave up more as well - 143, for a net of -92. I pegged best of all with the 3 lead; scoring 52 and allowing 90 for a net of -38. The 4 lead? Well just forget about it. That's strictly for defense.
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Tuesday 12:51 PM
I think its between 4-5-6-KH (3-KD) and 3-4-5-6-(K-K). But 3-4-5-K might be worth looking at as well as it improves with nearly every cut and the 6-K should be safest but it only starts with 5pts:

4-5-6-KH: 7pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.48) = +2½pts

3-4-5-6: 6pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.65) = +¼pt

3-4-5-K: 5pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.14) = +¾pt

Potential:

4-5-6-KH: Improves with AAAA, 333, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 9999 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 11/14/16pts with 444, 555, 666, KK = 11 cuts.

3-4-5-6: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 14pts with 333, 444, 555, 666 = 12 cuts.

3-4-5-K: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 8888 + 14xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 10/12pts with 333, 444, 555 = 9 cuts.

Pegging:

I think all these hands will peg quite well but with all low cards perhaps 3-4-5-6 the best.

Position:

We need 18pts with hand and pegging to reach 4th street par-hole so I'll play all out Offense.

Summary:

4-5-6-KH has fewer cuts for improvement than 3-4-5-6 but has a better maximum and nearly as many cuts for a good hand. Both will peg well but the main difference is the 2¼pts higher starting value of 4-5-6-KH and it provides the best chance of reaching 96pts. So I'll throw 3-KD.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 1:06 PM
At 78-87* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense____Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W2 %___W3 %
4-5-6-KH___9.70+1.13+(-4.17)=6.66____1.1____19.8
3-4-5-6____9.87+1.33+(-5.35)=5.85____1.6____20.5
3-4-5-K____7.91+1.48+(-3.85)=5.54____0.5____14.7

Offense_______L2 %___L3 %
4-5-6-KH_______9.6____61.5
3-4-5-6_______13.6____64.4
3-4-5-K________8.1____64.7

4-5-6-KH is best for expected averages by 0.81pt and although 3-4-5-6 is slightly better for Win %s it is significantly worse for Loss %s. So I'll select the unsuited 3-K to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll lead the 6 and play Offense:

Lead________Our Pegging Pts.
6________________1.51
4________________1.45
K________________1.43
5________________1.13
Ras2829
5155 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 1:22 PM
It's offense, offense, offense. The chances to win a game in this position is about 1/6 based on my scant empirical data. When seeing a 6 or 9 on deck with these cards and playing offense, will lead the 6 spot and take any pegs offered knowing that I have nine points which will put me in the middle of nowhere to deal. If the cut had been a 5 spot for 16 points, would have led the King which elicits an Ace in response. How do 3-K and K-K compare? They're miles apart! The 3-K averages 4.434 (1,750) 16/91 and the K-K weighs in at 5.589 (236) 59/91. Although holding 3-4-5-6 does offer some added pegging value, in no way does it make up for the great disparity in crib values between 3-K and K-K. HalscribCLX shows the added pegging value of the 3-4-5-6 at .2 of a point and that looks right to me. Of course the same discards to own crib are much lower scoring. Why might that be?
Ras2829 says: BTW for those who may not know, the number in parentheses following the discard averages represents the number of times discarded in live play with the results recorded. Since folks will discard anything in the final hand if close to winning, RAS did not record c rib values on last hand of game unless some part of the crib was scored on that final hand. Often see folks toss 5-5 to opponent crib on final hand as they have good hand potential in another direction or have enough to count out with first tally.