Wednesday 3:08 AM

Humm the double run or the seven point flush. I will take the double run in hopes you catch a paint card for 16.

   

Wednesday 3:29 AM

Double run hit chance to get to at maximum 106 or play crib defense and keep seven and have them hopefully in the 110s at worst. I will go for the bomb. dec

   

Wednesday 3:35 AM

I guess I am not with the majority this morning. Tossing 9-Q (only 4.12 pts) to opponent and starting with a 7 point flush gives a little advantage in combined value (avg. exp. hand minus crib) 0.16 points vs. tossing 3-9 to dealer. Same as yesterday, the run is heavily weighted at 8 points (30 cuts). I will wait for further analysis from Das and Hal.

   

Wednesday 5:34 AM

Will be interested in the crib values of 3-9 vs 3-Q. I'll lead the queen of diamonds.

   

Wednesday 6:16 AM

I've heard Ras talk about sacrifice limits as Dealer, but here we're Pone. I'm prepared to hold a point less to make a more defensive discard, but am I right to do so?

3 lead.

   

Wednesday 7:12 AM

Prefer the Q-9 discard to pone's crib in this situation and there's still plenty of potential in this flush/run keep.

   

Wednesday 7:34 AM

This looks like another case of double run hypnosis. Only this time we are the Pone. I can't think of a better time to play defense, and break up a double run than now, with Dealer just barely in his CPZ. And this is a fairly nice working flush. I'm perfectly willing to sacrifice one point in this case.

Hmm. That cut could have been better. Now I have 9 known points. That 7 may connect with the 9 I tossed, and I will be dealing essentially in the same situation as my opponent is now. In my CPZ, but not nearly as deep as I would like to be. Will have to switch to offense. At least for the start. Lead the 3 and keep the run intact. The 3 here is both offense and defense. I like that.

   

Wednesday 7:38 AM

I held the flush because I wanted to make the 2 a good cut. I also need to balk the dealer's crib, so 9-Q gives me a good defensive toss. A 5 or X card as the starter card will still put me in good position to deal, even if my hand is a bit smaller with one of these cuts because I did not hold the double run.

   

Wednesday 8:23 AM

Need to prevent dealer from going out this round. Dealer needs 27. With 26 theory this is too close so 9-Q it is.

   

Wednesday 9:13 AM

Dealer is already at 95. 9-Q is a great defensive discard and our best hope of winning this game.

   

Wednesday 10:26 AM

I'll keep the double run. Lead the Queen

   

Wednesday 12:46 PM

All the same cuts that help the double run help my hand almost as much, it gives me an out card and I get to throw q-9 to my opponent's crib. Not bad!

With a 9 point hand, I'll lead the 3 and hope to pair a face card - but I'll dump my jack otherwise on anything other than an 8 (then I would play my queen.)

   

Wednesday 1:17 PM

I am in the throw Q-9 camp. I 'm at 97 and hope to get to 99. This just feels like a defensive throw hand and not a "keep the extra point" hand. While 12 cuts (26%)after keeping the double run get us to 104 or 105, we don't need to get that far. Those same cuts get us almost as far with the flush hold. But, I'll also take hole 97 or 99 and try to get out as dealer from there.

   

Wednesday 3:18 PM

The partially running flush or the double-run?:

3-J-QD-K: 7pts - 4pts (Schell: 4.11) = 3pts

J-Q-Q-K: 8pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.87) = 3¼pts

Potential:

3-J-QD-K: Improves with 2222, 333, 5555 + 12xXs = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 12/13pts with 2222, 5555, JJJ, QQ, KKK = 16 cuts. Plus 2pt extra for a 5-card flush and his nob with 9 diamonds = 9/46 x 2pt = 0.39pt.

J-Q-Q-K: Improves with 5555 + 12xXs = 16 cuts = 16/46 = 34.8% up to 15/16pts with 5555, JJJ, QQ, KKK = 12 cuts.

Pegging:

The flush should peg better than the double-run.

Position:

We only need 8pts to reach par-hole at 96pts but every extra point puts us in a better chance to win. So I'll play Offense but with Dealer just in the CPZ I'll play cautious offense.

Summary:

The double-run is only ¼pt better in starting value but the flush has more cuts for improvement although a lower maximum and also has 9 diamonds for an extra 0.39pt. It should peg better as well so I'll throw the safer 9-QC.

   

Wednesday 3:31 PM

At 88-95* playing a Safe strategy the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand___Pegs___Crib___Total___W2 %___W3 %
3-J-QD-K___9.52+(-3.17)+(-4.06)=2.29___15.6___41.4
J-Q-Q-K___10.41+(-3.24)+(-4.88)=2.29___19.5___37.1

Defense_______L2 %____L3 %
3-J-QD-K______35.1____49.9
J-Q-Q-K_______42.4____54.0

These two hands are equal for expected averages but over the two deals the flush is very slightly better for Win %s and significantly better for Loss %s. As I'm recommending a Safe strategy I'll select the 9-QC to discard.

After the 7D cut I'll play Optimally (cautious offense) to the lead.

Lead__________Net Pegging Pts.
3_________________(-1.21)
K_________________(-2.04)
J_________________(-2.05)
Q_________________(-2.06)

   

Wednesday 4:06 PM

Look for such opportunities where keeping crib small may be the most important element in the hand. By holding a flush for seven points, non dealer can often discard 10-K, 9-K, 9-Q or 6-K rather than holding the double run and discarding a higher-scoring combination. The 9-Q 4.120 (1,672) 4/91 scores two or less 42.224% and scores 8 or more 11.483%. That's a great difference and there are few discar0 choices which approach that 4-1 likelihood for two or less points. Will play safe on the pegging taking those which appear not to give dealer a chance to match or play runs. After knowing that I have 9 points which puts me at hole 97 to deal, don't want to spoil my chances by giving up 3-4 pegs to dealer.