August 10, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by Inushtuk1
16*-22  ?
42%
32%
13%
5%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 178
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 3:19 AM
Looked at three tosses 5-Q, 5-J, and 3-3. Crib values are 6.59, 7.09, and 6.08, respectively. Combined values (avg. exp. hands and crib) are 12.49, 12.49!, and 11.78 points. Yes both 5-Q and 5-J have the same combined values.
Tossing suited 5-Q has 1/2 point more as an expected average hand than tossing 5-J which has 1/2 point more in the crib. The reason for this is the 9-J gapper in the hand of the former.
Twenty-three cuts improve the value of tossing 5-Q and 19 cuts improve the value of the hand by tossing 5-J. Four more cuts (TTTT) make up the difference between the two tosses.
We will see what Ras, Inushtuk1, and Hal say.
Guest says: Ras went into town
Guest says: Did anyone notice the 1% hand with 3, J, Q, and K if diamonds? King????
Guest says: I need to apologize as I made errors on my calculations for tossing 3-3 to dealer. Coeurdelion's comments brought this to my attention. Good thing there was no money on the game! Rosemarie
Samgash
401 votes

Joined: November 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 4:12 AM
Tough choice here. Since it is so close, i like tossing one of the 5-X hands instead of 3-3 because I think it will play better with pone's discard. Keeping 9-J in the hand also has the advantage of preserving the run on one end if a T is cut. Happy Thursday.
Jazzselke
2583 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Thursday 4:47 AM
Good puzzle again Mr. Inushtuk.
Although 33 is the third best pair to throw to your own crib, still prefer 5Q. Stats and reasoning provided by Rosemarie and Samgash above back this up.
Guest says: Congrats on making the ACC ALL AMERICAN team! Great that you made your way up to second in the Central--no one was catching your traveling buddy this year as Terry was unstoppable even before winning Raleigh.. You can become the next RAS on here now! lolol S :)
Guest says: Congrats on making the ACC ALL AMERICAN team! Great that you made your way up to second in the Central--no one was catching your traveling buddy this year as Terry was unstoppable even before winning Raleigh.. You can become the next RAS on here now! lolol S :)
Ras2829 says: Hi jazzselke: With an ID like yours, bet you like a tenor sax. Can't play anymore though would sure like to serenade you with the haunting strains of Blue Moon. Congratulations on the great season and the magnificent strides you've made in understanding this complex game. Keep those pegs far apart!
Ras2829 says: Hi jazzselke: With an ID like yours, bet you like a tenor sax. Can't play anymore though would sure like to serenade you with the haunting strains of Blue Moon. Congratulations on the great season and the magnificent strides you've made in understanding this complex game. Keep those pegs far apart!
Inushtuk1 says: Yes congratulations Dan. As someone who has participated in 6 ACC sanctioned tournaments (never qualifying even), I have somewhat of an idea of what a significant accomplishment it is to finish second in your region. BTW: I would have paid good money to hear Ras serenade you with Blue Moon.
Inushtuk1 says: Yes congratulations Dan. As someone who has participated in 6 ACC sanctioned tournaments (never qualifying even), I have somewhat of an idea of what a significant accomplishment it is to finish second in your region. BTW: I would have paid good money to hear Ras serenade you with Blue Moon.
Gougie00
5724 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 4:56 AM
I'll toss myself 33, which often catches help. I also like the 9JQ mini-cluster that often gets help from the starter. I'd like to reach hole 40, so its aggressive pegging.

Inushtuk1 says: Yes Gougie00. I like that 9JQ mini-cluster thing you talked about. And you should be able to peg more aggressively with your keep, as opposed to the other most popular option.
james500
3917 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Thursday 5:32 AM
(Wisely) not yet mentioned by any other contributor this morning, 9-J appealed to me here. A double case of "hopenosis" no doubt, with both the 3-3-5 and the 9-J. Not good, but better than a case of the norovirus that has stricken so many of the athletes competing in London, and ruined so many hopes and dreams.

Even though the cut is (roughly) 92% likely not to be a 10, and crib flushes are incredibly rare, I've still chosen to discard the Qh-5h rather than the superior Js-5h, so some affliction still has me in its grasp. Nurse!!
BigFoot Bob
624 votes

Joined: April 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 6:06 AM
I like the threes and nine sending the fiver over with the queen both hands a start of something good.
dec
6352 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 6:10 AM
sacrafice with the potential of a twelve hand still. Discard high on crib average list. Pegging. defense. dec
dec says: meant J-5 clicked wrong. dec
dec says: meant J-5 clicked wrong. dec
smugly
387 votes

Joined: August 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 7:29 AM
Pair of treys or suited 5-Q. Possible (probable) spelling aside, macht nichts. Wondering whether there's anything significant upon which to decide. For me, I tossed my lucky nickel.
glmccuskey
4095 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Thursday 8:04 AM
I like 5-Q vs 3-3. I kept the jack in my hand because it connects with the nine. The queen doesn't.
cribbagepogo
3250 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Thursday 8:15 AM
Good logic around. I keep this as I like to throw two cards that are connected and the 3's can connect with the 5 as well as the 9 with the J.
spin121
299 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 9:10 AM
There's that J Q discard again. I like the pegging opportunities with 3 3 5 9. Offense.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi spin121. Yes your keep probably outpegs all the others. (15-2) and (31-4). But I just like those *two* key connectors in my crib rather than one.
jmath714
1297 votes

Joined: January 2012
 
 
 
Thursday 11:15 AM
Attack here in pegging.
Inushtuk1
1480 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 12:07 PM
This hand was from a game of Crib Solitaire. I saw three valid options. Using Ras's, Schell's, or Colvert's static crib averages, it turns out (3-3) has the higher expected average. By a mere 0.01 point in the case of Schell. Halscrib will most likely choose the (3-3) option as well. Using *his* crib average the (5-Q) is actually higher as far as expected averages are concerned. 3-3-9-J has an expected average of 12.41. The 5-9-J-Q is only 12.25. However Hal figures the latter will peg better offensively over the former by 0.38 points. So the adjusted for pegs expected average is better with the (3-3) toss.

Did you notice that the 3-3-9-J haswhat JQT calls a "Sweet Sixteen". Yet if Pone has the common X-X-X-5 how can we take advantage of it? It seems it will only work if Pone has the uncommon 5-5-5-X. If he has the former it might go: X-3-X-3-5(31-2) for Pone. Jmath714 may find it better to attack in pegging with 5-9-J-Q.
Inushtuk1 says: Further to offensive pegging with 5-9-J-Q. We could play the 5 for (15-2) and draw first blood that way if Pone leads an X-card. But if you are feeling more adventurous you could pair his J, or Q lead. Pone will probably not dump his 5 here, but another X-card. That's okay. We'll lead our 9 to start the next series. If he plays another X-card for 19, we'll dump our other X-card for (29-1). If good fortune smiles upon us it will be (29-3). Now we are back in control, with Pone leading to us in the third play series. We each have one card left. Whether he has a 5 or an X-card left, we peg three more points.
Inushtuk1 says: I also wanted to mention the rather significant discrepancy between Ras's (3-3) crib averge and Halscrib's. Ras has the static value at 6.08. Hal puts it at 5.66 after adjusting for negative delta. . Yes there is the negative delta of us retaining a 9 in our hand. But that only subtracts 0.16 points from Ras's average. Could it be that the 5 in our hand; a gapper to the (3-3) also has some negative delta to it? Or does the prof just start with a much lower base number than Ras, Colvert et al? I wish JQT would be healthy enough to come back and answer that question. Perhaps Coeurdelion can shed some light on the subject.
Ras2829 says: Hi Inustuk1. Have you queried this on Cribbage Prof? Does the Prof suggest playing SAFE? Good puzzle!
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. No the Prof suggests offense, as we are dealing short, and Pone is ahead of us. He does recommend the (5-Q) if playing defense as you say below. Another reason for this submission was to show the newer players the folly of tossing the (5-J) to our crib. This has been an error of mine in the past with this and similar hands. Once the student has memorized tha (5-J) has a higher crib average, s/he may be too quick to toss that to the crib, only realizing too late that s/he has eliminated their chance of a three card run in their hand. All the more experienced players caught that right away. But some newer people to the site, or the game could learn something there as well. Or so I thought anyway.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 12:37 PM
I checked in too late in the day. I cannot make any comment to show my vast knowledge of the game or to set me apart from the others.

Any comment I could possibly state about this hand has already been said by the several learned companions on this blog.

Happy pegging
Ras2829
5146 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 2:34 PM
With no HalscribCLX analysis at this posting, if choosing an offense strategy discard the 3-3 provides an edge of about .2 of a point. Flip it over and play a defense strategy and 5-Q discard has the edge by a similar margin. From my perspective, I need to move down the board. Opponent is likely to be short of 2nd street CPZ by a considerable margin unless scoring 20 or more on this hand. Will play the five spot on a X lead as opponent is likely to be hesitant on making the count by pairing it. Just might ditch the five and not even give up two. For those choosing the 5-X to the crib, the 5-Q in this case would have the higher combined value as it leaves the J near the 9 in hand. The chance for increased hand score with that gapper slightly offsets the greater value of the 5-J to crib.
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
Thursday 3:51 PM
Several possibilities - 3-3-5-9 (J-Q), 5-9-J-Q (3-3) 3-3-5-Q (9-J), 3-3-9-J (5-Q) and 3-3-9-Q (5-J). I'll not examine 3-3-5-Q (9-J) and 3-3-9-Q (5-J) as I think 3-3-5-9 (J-Q) and 3-3-9-J (5-Q) are both better respectively:

3-3-5-9: 4pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.81) = 8¾pts

5-9-J-Q: 4pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.94) = 9¾pts

3-3-9-J: 4pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 10½pts

Potential:

3-3-5-9: Improves with 33, 4444, 555, 6666, 7777, 999 + 14xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 12pts with 33, 4444 = 6 cuts.

5-9-J-Q: Improves with AAAA, 555, 6666, 999 + 14xXs = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 10pts with 555, 10101010 = 7 cuts.

3-3-9-J: Improves with 2222, 33, 555, 6666, 999, 10101010, JJJ = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 12pts with 33 = 2 cuts.

Pegging:

3-3-5-9 has 3 low cards and a high card and a 3-card magic eleven so I think this will peg the best.

Position:

It looks like we were first dealer but have scored well below average at 16pts while pone as scored 4pts below average at 22pts. So I'll play Offense to try to catch up.

Summary:

3-3-9-J has the best starting value but poor potential and only 2 cuts for a good hand. 5-9-J-Q has lower number of cuts for improvement but 7 cuts for 10pts compared to 6 cuts for 12pts. However it does start with 1pt more so I'll throw the 3-3.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 4:21 PM
At 16*-22 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W7 %____W8 %
5-9-J-Q___6.59+2.80+5.66=15.05____13.0____30.7
3-3-5-9___6.74+3.63+4.62=14.99____11.4____28.2
3-3-9-J___5.89+2.48+6.52=14.89____12.3____30.7
3-3-9-Q___5.39+2.48+6.72=14.59____11.5____29.4
3-3-5-Q___6.70+3.37+3.91=13.98_____9.9____25.9

Offense_______L7 %____L8 %
5-9-J-Q_______16.4____36.8
3-3-5-9_______16.4____38.8
3-3-9-J_______14.8____35.4
3-3-9-Q_______14.8____36.4
3-3-5-Q_______16.8____40.9

5-9-J-Q is best for expected averages by 0.06pt and is slightly best for Win %s. 3-3-9-J is lower for Loss %s but even so I'll select 3-3 to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.