August 10, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by Inushtuk1
16*-22  ?
42%
32%
13%
5%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 178

Continue playing here against a computer opponent or
Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

Rosemarie44
551 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Thursday 3:19 AM
Looked at three tosses 5-Q, 5-J, and 3-3. Crib values are 6.59, 7.09, and 6.08, respectively. Combined values (avg. exp. hands and crib) are 12.49, 12.49!, and 11.78 points. Yes both 5-Q and 5-J have the same combined values.
Tossing suited 5-Q has 1/2 point more as an expected average hand than tossing 5-J which has 1/2 point more in the crib. The reason for this is the 9-J gapper in the hand of the former.
Twenty-three cuts improve the value of tossing 5-Q and 19 cuts improve the value of the hand by tossing 5-J. Four more cuts (TTTT) make up the difference between the two tosses.
We will see what Ras, Inushtuk1, and Hal say.
Reply
Samgash
189 votes

Joined: November 2016

   
Thursday 4:12 AM
Tough choice here. Since it is so close, i like tossing one of the 5-X hands instead of 3-3 because I think it will play better with pone's discard. Keeping 9-J in the hand also has the advantage of preserving the run on one end if a T is cut. Happy Thursday.
Reply
Jazzselke
798 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Thursday 4:47 AM
Good puzzle again Mr. Inushtuk.
Although 33 is the third best pair to throw to your own crib, still prefer 5Q. Stats and reasoning provided by Rosemarie and Samgash above back this up.
Reply
Gougie00
3235 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Thursday 4:56 AM
I'll toss myself 33, which often catches help. I also like the 9JQ mini-cluster that often gets help from the starter. I'd like to reach hole 40, so its aggressive pegging.

Reply
james500
1500 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Thursday 5:32 AM
(Wisely) not yet mentioned by any other contributor this morning, 9-J appealed to me here. A double case of "hopenosis" no doubt, with both the 3-3-5 and the 9-J. Not good, but better than a case of the norovirus that has stricken so many of the athletes competing in London, and ruined so many hopes and dreams.

Even though the cut is (roughly) 92% likely not to be a 10, and crib flushes are incredibly rare, I've still chosen to discard the Qh-5h rather than the superior Js-5h, so some affliction still has me in its grasp. Nurse!!
Reply
BigFoot Bob
480 votes

Joined: April 2016

   
Thursday 6:06 AM
I like the threes and nine sending the fiver over with the queen both hands a start of something good.
Reply
dec
3703 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Thursday 6:10 AM
sacrafice with the potential of a twelve hand still. Discard high on crib average list. Pegging. defense. dec
Reply
smugly
187 votes

Joined: August 2016

   
Thursday 7:29 AM
Pair of treys or suited 5-Q. Possible (probable) spelling aside, macht nichts. Wondering whether there's anything significant upon which to decide. For me, I tossed my lucky nickel.
Reply
glmccuskey
2370 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Thursday 8:04 AM
I like 5-Q vs 3-3. I kept the jack in my hand because it connects with the nine. The queen doesn't.
Reply
cribbagepogo
2334 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Thursday 8:15 AM
Good logic around. I keep this as I like to throw two cards that are connected and the 3's can connect with the 5 as well as the 9 with the J.
Reply
spin121
126 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Thursday 9:10 AM
There's that J Q discard again. I like the pegging opportunities with 3 3 5 9. Offense.
Reply
jmath714
453 votes

Joined: January 2012

   
Thursday 11:15 AM
Attack here in pegging.
Reply
Inushtuk1
314 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Thursday 12:07 PM
This hand was from a game of Crib Solitaire. I saw three valid options. Using Ras's, Schell's, or Colvert's static crib averages, it turns out (3-3) has the higher expected average. By a mere 0.01 point in the case of Schell. Halscrib will most likely choose the (3-3) option as well. Using *his* crib average the (5-Q) is actually higher as far as expected averages are concerned. 3-3-9-J has an expected average of 12.41. The 5-9-J-Q is only 12.25. However Hal figures the latter will peg better offensively over the former by 0.38 points. So the adjusted for pegs expected average is better with the (3-3) toss.

Did you notice that the 3-3-9-J haswhat JQT calls a "Sweet Sixteen". Yet if Pone has the common X-X-X-5 how can we take advantage of it? It seems it will only work if Pone has the uncommon 5-5-5-X. If he has the former it might go: X-3-X-3-5(31-2) for Pone. Jmath714 may find it better to attack in pegging with 5-9-J-Q.
Reply
JRCeagle78
273 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Thursday 12:37 PM
I checked in too late in the day. I cannot make any comment to show my vast knowledge of the game or to set me apart from the others.

Any comment I could possibly state about this hand has already been said by the several learned companions on this blog.

Happy pegging
Reply
Ras2829
2730 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Thursday 2:34 PM
With no HalscribCLX analysis at this posting, if choosing an offense strategy discard the 3-3 provides an edge of about .2 of a point. Flip it over and play a defense strategy and 5-Q discard has the edge by a similar margin. From my perspective, I need to move down the board. Opponent is likely to be short of 2nd street CPZ by a considerable margin unless scoring 20 or more on this hand. Will play the five spot on a X lead as opponent is likely to be hesitant on making the count by pairing it. Just might ditch the five and not even give up two. For those choosing the 5-X to the crib, the 5-Q in this case would have the higher combined value as it leaves the J near the 9 in hand. The chance for increased hand score with that gapper slightly offsets the greater value of the 5-J to crib.
Reply
Coeurdelion
3204 votes

Joined: October 2007

Thursday 3:51 PM
Several possibilities - 3-3-5-9 (J-Q), 5-9-J-Q (3-3) 3-3-5-Q (9-J), 3-3-9-J (5-Q) and 3-3-9-Q (5-J). I'll not examine 3-3-5-Q (9-J) and 3-3-9-Q (5-J) as I think 3-3-5-9 (J-Q) and 3-3-9-J (5-Q) are both better respectively:

3-3-5-9: 4pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.81) = 8¾pts

5-9-J-Q: 4pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.94) = 9¾pts

3-3-9-J: 4pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 10½pts

Potential:

3-3-5-9: Improves with 33, 4444, 555, 6666, 7777, 999 + 14xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 12pts with 33, 4444 = 6 cuts.

5-9-J-Q: Improves with AAAA, 555, 6666, 999 + 14xXs = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 10pts with 555, 10101010 = 7 cuts.

3-3-9-J: Improves with 2222, 33, 555, 6666, 999, 10101010, JJJ = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 12pts with 33 = 2 cuts.

Pegging:

3-3-5-9 has 3 low cards and a high card and a 3-card magic eleven so I think this will peg the best.

Position:

It looks like we were first dealer but have scored well below average at 16pts while pone as scored 4pts below average at 22pts. So I'll play Offense to try to catch up.

Summary:

3-3-9-J has the best starting value but poor potential and only 2 cuts for a good hand. 5-9-J-Q has lower number of cuts for improvement but 7 cuts for 10pts compared to 6 cuts for 12pts. However it does start with 1pt more so I'll throw the 3-3.
Reply
HalscribCLX
2949 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Thursday 4:21 PM
At 16*-22 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W7 %____W8 %
5-9-J-Q___6.59+2.80+5.66=15.05____13.0____30.7
3-3-5-9___6.74+3.63+4.62=14.99____11.4____28.2
3-3-9-J___5.89+2.48+6.52=14.89____12.3____30.7
3-3-9-Q___5.39+2.48+6.72=14.59____11.5____29.4
3-3-5-Q___6.70+3.37+3.91=13.98_____9.9____25.9

Offense_______L7 %____L8 %
5-9-J-Q_______16.4____36.8
3-3-5-9_______16.4____38.8
3-3-9-J_______14.8____35.4
3-3-9-Q_______14.8____36.4
3-3-5-Q_______16.8____40.9

5-9-J-Q is best for expected averages by 0.06pt and is slightly best for Win %s. 3-3-9-J is lower for Loss %s but even so I'll select 3-3 to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
Reply