Friday 3:10 AM

Offense in this position. Chose to toss 6-8 leaving a hand that has the highest exp. average (vs. toss 6-10, 3-6) and also the highest value to dealer's crib. Also this hand has the most cuts for improvement. Await further comments from you, Ras.

   

Friday 3:29 AM

Keeping the four points vs the two. Sending the suited gapper feels a bit risky but I don't want to get left behind.

Nice seventeen card this week Bee Man.

   

Friday 4:15 AM

I think we can all agree that the 6 is going, the debate will be whether it should be joined in the box by the 8,10 or 3.

10 lead.

   

Friday 4:25 AM

Same amount ,less dangerous discard. Ten lead. dec

   

Friday 5:20 AM

Hedging. Without 8 sure points in my hand, I dont want to give the dealer any promise in the crib. Lead the 3 and mix it up.

   

Friday 5:39 AM

For me this spot depends on my opponent. If I'm playing a top level player I'm much more likely to throw 6-8 and play aggressively.

If I'm playing someone who I feel like will make mistakes, I can afford to be a little more patient and not risk big swings in their crib.

   

Friday 6:17 AM

8-6 suited was out of the question. That led to the choice 10-6 or 3-6. 10-6 is the safer throw but since this is the start of the game as pone I have to get out as far as possible. I'll lead the 10 and possible get a 20 for2.

   

Friday 6:23 AM

Only a six or a nine doesn't add value and the 6-10 is a nice defensive discard. I'll lead the three.

   

Friday 6:57 AM

Still holding 4 and a possible 10 points. Would be more daring with a sure 8 points and a possible 16 or more.

   

Friday 8:39 AM

This puzzle is very similar to the third example from Ras's class, Week 3. I am referring to the Discarding Effectiveness - Pone Lesson #3 Supplement Discard Problems. The example was 5-6-Q-2-8-3. In that example he wrote, "You can only hold 4 points anyway. The 6-8 could result in a crib of 20-24. Not worth the risk!" He failed to mention that (3-6) also has a maximum of 24. I think it's too early to risk either discard to keep a mere 4 points in starting hand value. Yeah I'd give the (6-8) if I could keep 8 points. I'd also do it if I was running out of race track. But there's plenty of time. Maybe I'll deal myself 12 to start with next hand.

Is it possible Ras submitted this puzzle to show us he has changed his mind about the 2-3-5-6-8-X hand as Pone? I think holding these 4 for only 2 to start with will peg better. Lead the 3 from the Magic Five. The 7, and 8 are common responses to a 3 lead, so as to avoid playing an X-pointer. But with anyone of those three we are in business.

   

Friday 9:02 AM

Nothing worse than losing the game on the first deal of the game so not tossing 6 8 here. Offense.

   

Friday 9:51 AM

Discard the 3-6. I am not comfortable discard 6-8. I have been burned too many times.

   

Friday 1:20 PM

As First Pone I'm inclined to risk the 6-8 and keep 2-3-5-10. It improves with all cuts except 6s and 9s and we know where one of those is and it also should peg well. The alternative is 2-5-8-10 and throw the safer 3-6:


2-3-5-10: 4pts - 5½pts (Schell: 5.86) = -1½pts

2-5-8-10: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.87) = -1pt

Potential:

2-3-5-10: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 555, 7777, 888 + 15xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 8/10pts with 222, 333, 4444, 555 + 15xXs = 28 cuts.

2-5-8-10: Improves with 222, 333, 555, 7777, 888, 9999 + 15xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 8/10 with 222, 555, 888, 101010 = 12 cuts.

Pegging:

2-3-5-10 should peg better with 3 low cards and a high card.

Position:

As First Pone we'll be playing Offense and striving to reach par-hole of 18pts.

Summary:

2-3-5-10 has a few more cuts for improvement but more importantly has 28 cuts for 8/10pts compared to 12 cuts with 2-5-8-10. Also it should peg better so I think its worth risking 6-8 which according to Schell is approx. 1pt higher for expected averages in opponent's box.

   

Friday 1:36 PM

At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging t5he dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense____Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W9 %____W10 %
2-3-5-8____5.61+2.02+(-4.08)=3.55____22.1____21.6
2-3-5-10___7.26+1.70+(-5.48)=3.48____25.7____22.4
2-5-8-10___6.26+1.41+(-4.36)=3.31____22.2____21.8

Offense_______L9 %____L10 %
2-3-5-8_______38.1____52.5
2-3-5-10______40.9____52.6
2-5-8-10______37.3____52.0

2-3-5-8 is 0.07pt better for expected averages but this takes no account of the board position. Even though its the very start of the game as the difference in expected averages is so slight I'll choose on the basis of Win/Loss %s. 2-3-5-10 is appreciably better for Win %s and despite the fact that it is slightly worse for Loss %s I'll select 6-8 to discard.

After the 10 cut I'll lead the 3 and play Offense:

Lead________Our Pegging Pts.
3________________1.91
10_______________1.88
5________________1.68
2________________1.68

   

Friday 2:43 PM

Well playing offense on hand one, will toss 6-8. Other places on board would likely go with the choice made by Inustuk1 above with 2-3-5-8. Since the 10 spot gives me ten points will lead the trey. If the cut had given me 7 or less points, would have led the 10. The U-tube video that Inushtuk1 refers to was done about 8 years ago. If playing defense today, I would discard 6-10 from 2-3-5-6-8-10. One's game should be evolving over the passage of time.