August 12, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by smugly
48-60*  ?
44%
25%
7%
6%
5%
4%
1%
1%
1%
1%
Total votes: 134

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james500
1609 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Saturday 3:13 AM
I'll keep the three card run and the 3 to lead with. Only cuts of an A,Q or K will not improve the value of my hand (12/46).
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Rosemarie44
666 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Saturday 3:27 AM
Believe it is between tossing 3-6 or 2-6 to dealer. I cannot hold a hand worth 5 points and toss 2-3 valued at 7.52 points to opponent!

Tossing 3-6 or 2-6 have identical statistics: min of 3 and max of 8 points, exp. average hand of 5.20 points; combined value hand minus crib .39 points and .41 points respectively. the difference is in the value of the crib toss: 4.81 points and 4.79 points, respectively.
If I am correct, tossing 3-6 to dealer gives us one more cut in the hand for improvement over tossing 2-6.
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dec
3837 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Saturday 3:58 AM
In constructing a hand my peggers have some consideration. Three for a check play. As far as a five cut I hope most of the X/5 cards are left out of their hand and remain in the deck. dec
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BigFoot Bob
585 votes

Joined: April 2016

   
Saturday 5:42 AM
Even tossing the valuable 2-3, I need ever point I can get keeping the 6 for a extra 2 points with a run.
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glmccuskey
2483 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Saturday 6:11 AM
See no reason for defense. I'm in a desperate spot and need to take chances. Lead the six.
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jmath714
524 votes

Joined: January 2012

   
Saturday 7:49 AM
Agreed, have to attack here. I might consider the 8 lead instead of the 6.
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Inushtuk1
407 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Saturday 8:19 AM
Great puzzle smugly. To me there is no way Dealer will get my (2-3). But do I keep the 3, and cover my 3 lead, but have one less chance for improvement? Or do I go for the keep with the slightly higher average hand. I will go with the latter. The (3-6) needs another 6 to make a (15-2). There are only three 6's remaining. The (2-6) requires a 7 to do the same. There are four of those floating around out there somewhere. I'll lead my 2 to keep the run intact, but maybe the 8 lead is best. But Dealer usually comes out ahead when Pone leads a mid-card.
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spin121
238 votes

Joined: March 2016

Saturday 10:56 AM
Game is half over for dealer who is leading by 12 pts. So as much as it pains me to do so, I'm giving up the dangerous discard. Offense
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Ras2829
2842 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Saturday 12:50 PM
Rosemarie44 says most of what I want to say. Can't toss 2-3 to opponent and hold five points. So will choose optimal strategy shaded towards offense. Like the 2-3-6-9 playing an optimal strategy. Lead the 6, if paired score 15-2, if a nine played, pair the 9 for count of 24. Still have 2-3 intact which might allow pairs or pick up a lone Ace for a run of three. Sometimes on the right count pick off a lone 4 and close the count with 31-5. From this keep, if playing defense would lead the trey. Only a five and 8 spot add no value to hand. At this posting, I'm with the 8% group. Very instructional puzzle smugly as it does seem that such discard dilemmas often confront the non-dealer whereas dealer seldom has that problem as discard counts on dealer side of ledger. BTW opening deal has many advantages in a game other than the extra deal, extra pegs, extra crib, etc. This is just one of many. Can you think of other advantages for first dealer as game unfolds?
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HalscribCLX
3055 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Saturday 2:06 PM
At 48-60* playing an Offense strategy the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W4 %___W5 %
2-8-9-10__5.24+1.20+(-4.39)=2.05____0.5____6.1
2-3-6-9___4.91+1.83+(-4.70)=2.04____0.6____6.7
3-8-9-10__5.20+1.39+(-4.57)=2.02____0.5____6.3
2-3-9-10__5.20+1.67+(-5.36)=1.51____0.6____6.2
3-6-8-9___4.11+1.41+(-4.40)=1.12____0.4____5.3
2-3-8-9___3.41+1.87+(-4.19)=1.09____0.4____5.1
2-6-8-9___4.20+1.26+(-4.46)=1.00____0.4____5.3
6-8-9-10__7.15+1.33+(-7.48)=1.00____0.9____7.9

Offense______L4 %___L5 %
2-8-9-10_____12.5___61.3
2-3-6-9______14.0___63.3
3-8-9-10_____12.7___61.8
2-3-9-10_____15.6___64.0
3-6-8-9______12.7___62.6
2-3-8-9______12.6___62.4
2-6-8-9______13.1___63.1
6-8-9-10_____20.1___69.8

2-8-9-10 is only 0.01pt better than 2-3-6-9 for expected averages and although 6-8-9-10 is best for Win %s it is 1.05pt lower for expected averages and very much worst for Loss %s because of the risky 2-3 discard. I think the best compromise is 2-8-9-10 as it is lowest for Loss %s, slightly best for expected averages and a close fourth best for Win %s. So I'll select 3-6 to discard.

After the 10 cut I'll lead the 2 and play Offense:

Lead_______Our Pegging Pts.
2________________1.24
8________________1.22
9________________1.18
10_______________1.17
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Coeurdelion
3304 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Saturday 4:21 PM
I don't think 6-8-9-10 (2-3) comes into it but I'll compare it to 3-8-9-10 (2-6), 2-8-9-10 3-6) and 2-3-6-9 (8-10):

Potential:

6-8-9-10: 5pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.33) = -2½pts

3-8-9-10: 3pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.97) = -2pts

2-8-9-10: 3pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.87) = -2pts

2-3-6-9: 2pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 5.10) = -2¾pts

6-8-9-10: Improves with AAAA, 5555, 666, 7777, 888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 9/10/12pts with 666, 7777, 888, 999, 101010 = 16 cuts.

3-8-9-10: Improves with 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 666, 7777, 888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 8pts with 888, 999, 101010 = 9 cuts.

2-8-9-10: Improves with 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 666, 7777, 888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 8pts with 888, 999, 101010 = 9 cuts.

2-3-6-9: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 666, 7777, 999 + 15xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 6/7/8pts with AAAA, 4444, 666, 999 = 14 cuts.
Pegging:

I think 2-3-6-9 will peg the best of these 4 hands.

Position:

We're way behind and opponent will reach 3rd street par-hole and beyond as Pone next deeal (probably!). So I'll play Offense to try to catch up.

Summary:

2-8-9-10 and 3-8-9-10 have the best starting value with 34 cuts for improvement and 9 cuts for a reasonable hand. 2-3-6-9 starts with ¾pt less but has more cuts for improvement and although the maximum is less its a big improvement over 2pts. Even so I'll go with starting with 3pts. With 3-8-9-10 we gain with a cut of 333 for 7pts but with 5555 and 2-8-9-10 we also score 7pts so I don't think there will be much difference in the hand expected average. With the crib Schell puts 3-6 at 0.10pt lower for expected because the 3-6 combination only has 666 for a 15 while 2-6 has 7777. As we hold a 9 both crib averages will suffer negative delta so I'll throw 3-6 as I think it will be slightly better.
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