Wednesday 3:16 AM

As pone we are needing 10 points and the best hand we can hold today is 4-4-6-6 with an expected average hand of 7.10 points. My choice disregards the value of my tossing 10-10 to dealer.

   

Wednesday 4:46 AM

If I knew the aces would be the starter, then I would have held the 10s instead. Lead the 4, play into runs if possible.

   

Wednesday 5:42 AM

We did not fare all that terrible with this choice. The five puts us out but.. Ace ( for eight ) , Four,six,nine also eight, three and seven adds two more. They do need eighteen , lets lead the six maybe they will play off with a face and we can trap a five. dec

   

Wednesday 6:13 AM

I'll lead the four of diamonds

   

Wednesday 8:05 AM

Dec is right. We didn't fare too badly. Lead the 6d. If we peg nothing we will be close enough to peg out next hand as Dealer. I suspect our chances of winning this game are slightly better than 50%.

   

Wednesday 8:07 AM

I see absolutely no need to hold 4-4-6-6 here since I need only ten holes, as 5-cut will still give me enough to win. I throw 6-10 (off-suited) in the event that the dealer counts her crib.

   

Wednesday 9:04 AM

I will go for it and discard the pair of 10s. I need to peg 2 points.

   

Wednesday 9:33 AM

We begin as Pone with a maximum of FOUR points, and yet we need TEN points in order to WIN.

And since we have all EVEN cards, there is no mixture or 'Hybrid Solution' of holding cards here that could possibly generate as many points as simply holding Two PAIRS. So let's examine the three possible choices:

If we hold (4 4 6 6), we are helped by 24 Cuts (AAAA, 3333, 44, 5555, 66, 7777, 9999).

If however we hold (4 4 T T), we are only helped by 16 Cuts (AAAA, 44, 5555, 7777, TT); and similarly, if we hold (6 6 T T), we are also only helped by 16 Cuts (3333, 5555, 66, 9999, TT).

While several of these aforementioned Cuts shall not put us out without some additional pegging, we cannot ignore the fact that having 24 as opposed to 16 beneficial Cuts represents a whopping 50% increase!

After the very helpful Ace Cut, still needing to peg Three Holes, we might WIN during This Deal, or; if the Dealer falls short, we could also Peg Out as the Next Dealer.

I'll lead a 6d Card.

   

Wednesday 11:06 AM

I'll throw the unsuited 6-10. This hand is helped by 22 cuts, has a fake flush, an escape card, and a good discard. 4D lead.

   

Wednesday 12:39 PM

This hand clearly has only 2 viable choices, 10-10 or 10-6. By splitting the 4's it would be impossible to win this game. If I lead the 4 the dealer will not pair it unless he has the last one.

   

Wednesday 12:53 PM

I'll try the trucker's favourite, 10:4.

6d lead.

   

Wednesday 1:27 PM

No 10 10 here. Idea is to increase the odds of being able to peg out next deal in case I don't hit my cut. 6 lead.

   

Wednesday 2:22 PM

That Ace gives us a nifty 8 points. Lead the 6d and take any two offered with dealer needing 18. What are chances dealer can score 18 on this hand? That's 1 in 4 according to cribbage great DeLynn Colvert. The 10-10 discard gives up directly .32 with an Ace on the deck. Where are those four spots? Think my chances went up with the Ace cut as to winning. Knowing that I have 8 points and dealer is not likely to score 18,my chances of winning on this deal or the next must be about 85% and I'll defer to HalscribCLX on win/loss percentages. Like the puzzle as we seem confronted with 3 pairs more often that seems probable.

   

Wednesday 5:16 PM

I think this is all about the hand most likely to score 10pts or very close to 10pts. As there are 3 pairs, numerically there are only 6 hands:

4-4-6-6: 4pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 6.08) = -1¾pts

4-4-6-10: 2pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.31) = -1¼pts

4-6-6-10: 2pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.53) = -2½pts

6-6-10-10: 4pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = -2½pts

4-6-10-10: 2pts - 5½pts (Schell: 5.34) = -3½pts

4-4-10-10: 4pts - 6¾pts (Schell: 7.08) = -2¾pts

Even though playing for 10pts I see no reason to keep anything other than 4-4-6-6 or 4-4-6-10 as there is at least ¾pt difference in expected averages if we don't get the cut.

4-4-6-6: Improves with AAAA, 3333, 44, 5555, 66, 7777, 9999 = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 8/24pts with AAAA, 44, 5555, 66, 9999 = 16 cuts.

4-4-6-10: Improves with AAAA, 44, 5555, 66, 7777, 9999, 1010 = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 8/14pts with AAAA, 5555 = 8 cuts.

Pegging:

Probably the 4-4-6-6 with more low cards will peg best.

Position:

We desperately need 10 pts so need to get as close as possible with the cut and pegging.

Summary:

I think its clear that 4-4-6-6 is better for cuts for improvement, cuts for 8+pts and should peg better so I'll discard 10-10.

   

Wednesday 7:22 PM

At 111-103* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense____Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W1 %____W2 %
4-4-6-6____5.91+1.43+(-6.19)=1.15____26.9____37.2
4-4-6-10*__3.91+1.26+(-4.13)=1.04____15.5____27.8

Offense_________L1 %____L2 %
4-4-6-6_________35.1____51.6
4-4-6-10*_______21.9____64.4

4-4-6-6 is better for expected averages by 0.11pts and is very much better for Win %s. It is very slightly worse for Loss %s but in this board position 4-4-6-6 is very much better for chances of winning so I'll select 10-10 to discard.

After the A cut I'll lead a 6 and play Offense:

Lead_________Our Pegging Pts
6_________________1.35
4_________________1.10

   

Wednesday 8:40 PM

I prefer killing the crib. Just not palatable throwing 10-10 in that spot. Too many 8-9s and J-Qs end up in that crib. We need a cut to get us 8 no matter what. Just what I would do.

   

Wednesday 8:55 PM

Tossing the X X and trying to get as close to 121 as I can so as to peg out next hand.