Saturday 3:08 AM

Went for a face five cut in main hand and hopefully a low card edge fill in the crib. Probably better to slow down our opponent here. dec

   

Saturday 3:33 AM

Tossing 2-4 or 5-Q this morning? Finally decided that I want to slow down opponent as dec says. More cuts for improvement of this hand. combined value is slightly higher holding 5-9-J-Q.
twenty-nine cuts holds 2-4-9-J at 2-4 points in the hand (63%).

   

Saturday 3:41 AM

It a appears more cuts help this hold.

   

Saturday 4:10 AM

2-9 would be a more conventional choice here, but I'm interested to see how 2-4-5-9 (J-Q) works out. All cuts except a 7 will increase the value of this hand, which can be played as an 11 or as a 16.

X(10)-5(15/2)-X(25)-4(29)-"go"-2(31/2) or.
X(10)-5(15/2)-5(20/2)-9(29)-"go"-2(31/2).

   

Saturday 6:05 AM

K cut does not bode well for catching pone here. Helps hand but prob. not crib. Still probably at least 15 pts behind positionally. So I'm in the dec camp here and will try to slow the game down.

   

Saturday 6:55 AM

I tossed my small cards in the crib hoping for a "3" from my opponent. The 9 is just incase an 8 or 10 gets cut. We're behind by 12 and need to catch up. Not sure if cautious offense or obnoxious offense is required, but offense.

   

Saturday 7:31 AM

We are in bad shape and need a combo of hand, crib and pegging. I think this is the best hold for that.

   

Saturday 11:43 AM

At 32*-44 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and the Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W6 %___W7 %
4-5-J-Q___7.20+2.98+3.55=13.73____8.9____7.1
5-9-J-Q___6.59+2.80+4.31=13.70____9.7____7.5
2-4-9-J___4.33+2.83+6.47=13.63____9.2____7.8

Offense_______L6 %___L7 %
4-5-J-Q_______49.6___74.7
5-9-J-Q_______49.1___73.9
2-4-9-J_______47.6___73.2

2-4-9-J is 0.10pt lower than 4-5-J-Q for expected averages and is almost the same as 5-9-J-Q for Win %s and is lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 5-Q to discard.

After the K cut I'll play Offense to the lead.

   

Saturday 3:36 PM

Three likely throws, I think - 2-4, 5-Q and 2-9:

5-9-J-Q: 4pts + 4½pts (Schell: 4.52) = 8½pts

2-4-9-J: 2pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 8½pts

4-5-J-Q: 4pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.71) = 7¾pts

Potential:

5-9-J-Q: Improves with AAAA, 555, 6666, 999 + 14xXs = 28 cuts = 60.9% up to 9/10pts with 555, 10101010, KKKK = 11 cuts.

2-4-9-J: Improves with AAAA, 222, 3333, 444, 555, 6666, 999, 10101010, JJJ = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 6/7pts with 222, 3333, 444, 999 = 10 cuts.

4-5-J-Q: Improves with AAAA, 3333, 444, 555, 6666 + 14xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 8/9/10pts with AAAA, 555, 6666 + 14xXs = 25 cuts.

Pegging:

Of the three hands I think 2-4-9-J will peg best.

Position:

At 32*-44 Pone has reached par-hole and we're well short so I'll play Offense .

Summary:

5-9-J-Q and 2-4-9-J both start with 8½pts and 5-9-J-Q has nearly as many cuts for improvement but 11 cuts for a better maximum. So I'll throw the gapper 2-4.

   

Sunday 12:35 AM

Like the 5-J as discard from this hand although will hold Jack here as it fits closer to the 9 spot. Will play offense and take any pegs offered. Sorry so late getting on. Been playing crib all day at the WA Stae Fair.