September 10, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by ras2829
40*-32  ?
34%
31%
14%
8%
3%
2%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 134
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 3:08 AM
Tossing 2-5 to my crib today. More cuts for improvement and slightly higher combined value. Both hands has same expected average hand at 6.70 points and same min and max, 4 - 11 points. Crib values: 2-5, 5.54 points, and A-4, 5.42 points.
james500
3923 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Sunday 3:44 AM
I'd choose 2-5, but might there be a case to be made for J-5?
spin121
299 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 4:38 AM
11 in hand - hoping for more than the known 2 in crib and 1 guaranteed peg. Sitting @ 54 for sure. Will take all pegs offered.
spin121 says: A 4 10 J
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 4:42 AM
If the ten was a spade J-5. Been doing the 2-5 in this case most times. Defense in pegging trust in some points still in the crib. dec
Gougie00
5730 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 5:59 AM
Lets try it this way.
Ras2829
5154 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 10:21 AM
This puzzle comes from a live game in which I tossed the 5-J as have done today. RAS is 3 holes short of 2nd street CPZ 43-47 and opponent needs 11 points to get there. Seems that an optimal pegging strategy is important. Couldn't quite drop down to defense. My scant empirical data shows the difference between 5-J, 5-10, 2-5, A-4, 2-J, and 2-10 discards to be 1/2 point. That's six choices all within that very close range. Since holding this hand, have queried a couple of times on the Cribbage Prof. That masterful cribbot shows those discards in the same order of decreasing value with even less of a margin. Having three cards of less than 4 in value adds to the pegging value. The Prof shows the 5-J to have a 6.79 crib value. Suspect with all the gears working in that transmission, that average is lowered by the presence of 5, A-4, and a 10 spot in the hand? My empirical data shows he 5-J to average 7.088 (1,678) 3/91. The number in parentheses represents the number of times discarded to own crib and results recorded. Will take pegs that appear reasonably safe.
Ras2829 says: BTW that 5-J to own crib scores 8-11 41.358% and tallies 12 or more 5.78% while scoring a mere two points 1.609%. That's an amazingly low number for two-point cribs. Even the powerhouse 5-5 scores two points 2.4%. Try it; you'll like it!
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. Thanks for the puzzle. i would have voted for (2-5), but accidentally ended up reading your comments first. But shouldn't we be on defense here? We have board position using Schell's system. We are plus 22. Pone is minus 2. And why aren't you at the GN instead of the fair?
Ras2829 says: H Inushtuk1; Can't quite bring myself to play defense as play the CPZ's very closely. That means I need to be dealing from hole 43-47. Takes not much more than an average hand for my opponent to be there from hole 32. I not choosing optimal, would have elected defense. If choosing defense,the 2-5 discard works out about 1/2 point better after the deduction for avg. pegs scored by opponent, adding the potential hand score, and adding potential crib value. Too much on my platter with family activities and the State Fair which runs from 9/1-23 to fit the GN in the mix.
Inushtuk1 says: Thank you.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 3:15 PM
At 40*-32 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

____________________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W6 %____W7 %
A-2-4-10__4.52+3.30+6.79=14.61____27.7____49.0
2-5-10-J__6.70+2.67+5.23=14.60____28.6____50.4
A-2-4-J___4.78+3.30+6.50=14.58____28.4____49.8
A-4-10-J__6.70+2.50+5.37=14.57____29.3____52.3

Offense_______L6 %____L7 %
A-2-4-10______14.9____29.8
2-5-10-J______14.5____28.9
A-2-4-J_______14.9____29.5
A-4-10-J______13.6____27.4

There's only 0.04pt between the first and fourth for expected averages but A-4-10-J is best for Win %s and lowest for Loss % so I'll select 2-5 to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
spin121
299 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Monday 2:00 AM
4/100 of a point difference between the top 4 hands. This must be a record. You have to try very hard to play this hand wrong.
Interestingly the 2 5 discard is worse than the A 4 discard, albeit only 3/100th of a point difference between the two discards.