September 10, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by ras2829
40*-32  ?
34%
31%
14%
8%
3%
2%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 134

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Rosemarie44
647 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Sunday 3:08 AM
Tossing 2-5 to my crib today. More cuts for improvement and slightly higher combined value. Both hands has same expected average hand at 6.70 points and same min and max, 4 - 11 points. Crib values: 2-5, 5.54 points, and A-4, 5.42 points.
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james500
1589 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Sunday 3:44 AM
I'd choose 2-5, but might there be a case to be made for J-5?
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spin121
211 votes

Joined: March 2016

Sunday 4:38 AM
11 in hand - hoping for more than the known 2 in crib and 1 guaranteed peg. Sitting @ 54 for sure. Will take all pegs offered.
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dec
3813 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Sunday 4:42 AM
If the ten was a spade J-5. Been doing the 2-5 in this case most times. Defense in pegging trust in some points still in the crib. dec
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Gougie00
3326 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Sunday 5:59 AM
Lets try it this way.
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Ras2829
2818 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Sunday 10:21 AM
This puzzle comes from a live game in which I tossed the 5-J as have done today. RAS is 3 holes short of 2nd street CPZ 43-47 and opponent needs 11 points to get there. Seems that an optimal pegging strategy is important. Couldn't quite drop down to defense. My scant empirical data shows the difference between 5-J, 5-10, 2-5, A-4, 2-J, and 2-10 discards to be 1/2 point. That's six choices all within that very close range. Since holding this hand, have queried a couple of times on the Cribbage Prof. That masterful cribbot shows those discards in the same order of decreasing value with even less of a margin. Having three cards of less than 4 in value adds to the pegging value. The Prof shows the 5-J to have a 6.79 crib value. Suspect with all the gears working in that transmission, that average is lowered by the presence of 5, A-4, and a 10 spot in the hand? My empirical data shows he 5-J to average 7.088 (1,678) 3/91. The number in parentheses represents the number of times discarded to own crib and results recorded. Will take pegs that appear reasonably safe.
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HalscribCLX
3032 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Sunday 3:15 PM
At 40*-32 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

____________________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W6 %____W7 %
A-2-4-10__4.52+3.30+6.79=14.61____27.7____49.0
2-5-10-J__6.70+2.67+5.23=14.60____28.6____50.4
A-2-4-J___4.78+3.30+6.50=14.58____28.4____49.8
A-4-10-J__6.70+2.50+5.37=14.57____29.3____52.3

Offense_______L6 %____L7 %
A-2-4-10______14.9____29.8
2-5-10-J______14.5____28.9
A-2-4-J_______14.9____29.5
A-4-10-J______13.6____27.4

There's only 0.04pt between the first and fourth for expected averages but A-4-10-J is best for Win %s and lowest for Loss % so I'll select 2-5 to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
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spin121
211 votes

Joined: March 2016

Monday 2:00 AM
4/100 of a point difference between the top 4 hands. This must be a record. You have to try very hard to play this hand wrong.
Interestingly the 2 5 discard is worse than the A 4 discard, albeit only 3/100th of a point difference between the two discards.
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