September 11, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by ras2829
0*-0  ?
56%
24%
11%
3%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 171
james500
3922 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Monday 3:07 AM
If there were no flush option, I would've been looking at 2-3 or X-5. As it is, I'll keep the clubs. All cuts are helpful.
dec
6357 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Monday 3:20 AM
If it was Jack-Five I would not even think about this for a minute. The average on this is still more .. the pegging I better have a plan after. Ace lead I would counter with a three they might get some pegs but I believe I would also. dec
spin121
299 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Monday 5:02 AM
Really wanted to toss 5 Q but felt need for an out card. Nothing worse than a pegging war first hand as dealer.
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Monday 5:05 AM
Really liked the flush and the fact that it totals up to an "11". Decided on the small run and 5-Q to my crib. Nice one Ras.
james500 says: Good morning. Submitted a puzzle recently, but checking my notes, I've entered the Dealer score incorrectly. I think it is due on the 25th/26th of this month? Can you, or one of the other mods, delete please. I have already resubmitted, and it will be featured next year. Thanks in advance.
Rosemarie44 says: Hi James500: found one of the 28th score 117-117*. Is that the one? a few more later in the month and one earlier around 9/21.
james500 says: Hi. That's the one, yes.
Gougie00
5729 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Monday 5:45 AM
The flush is alluring, but I'll tuck 5Q in my crib.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Monday 9:50 AM
A234 has a maximum of 10 points whereas the A235 club flush has a maximum of 10. The pegging strength for both hands is nearly identical.
JRCeagle78 says: The statement above should read 12 points for the flush
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Monday 11:55 AM
With QC cut, isn't the max for each hand 14? With the flush-you get 12 in the hand and at least a pair in the crib. With A234 and any Q cut, you get eight in the hand and at least 6 in the crib.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi joekayak. JR means 10 is the *hand* maximum.
jmath714
1299 votes

Joined: January 2012
 
 
 
Monday 1:44 PM
Had a blast at GN. Added 26 MRPs and saw 494 friends. I'm on the flush today but would consider 2-3 as well - ready to learn and listen here.
james500 says: Congratulations for your ranking points.
Inushtuk1 says: Yes, congrats jmath714. If by 494 friends, you mean that was the number in attendance, then that was a big bump up from last year's attendance. But still nowhere near the heyday of the ACC I gather. It's a shame. See, I should have scraped together some cash and gone west. Hopefully next time.
HalscribCLX
5317 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Monday 3:06 PM
At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W9 %____W10 %
A-2-3-4___8.11+(-2.20)+6.59=12.50____45.5____56.1
A-2-3-Q___7.78+(-1.96)+6.32=12.14____43.1____54.5
A-2-3-5__11.04+(-2.15)+3.19=12.08____44.9____55.5

Defense_______L9 %____L10 %
A-2-3-4_______27.9____20.2
A-2-3-Q_______27.0____21.1
A-2-3-5_______28.3____20.7

A-2-3-4 is best for expected averages by 0.36pt and is slightly best for Win %s and joint lowest with A-2-3-Q for Loss %s. So I'll select 5-Q to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Guest says: Surprised not to see a 2-3 toss to self even represented as an option here?
Inushtuk1 says: Hi guest. The (2-3) turns out to be fourth best with us holding an Ace *and a 4.
Inushtuk1 says: *and*
Inushtuk1
1486 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Monday 3:20 PM
I used to always keep A-2-3-Q(4-5) from this or similar, as Colvert suggested in his book. Apparently DeLynn may have changed his mind about that. I've heard Ras say he plays the A-2-3-4 now for the pegs. Here we don't need the pegs, but this hand is so much better for expected averages. And the escape card of the Q doesn't make up for its lower expected average. The poor underrated (4-5) suffers from some negative delta today with us retaining a 3.

Hopefully there is safety in numbers with us holding 4 small cards, and Pone will not lead one. But if so we have the cards to most likely end up on the winning side of a run pegging war, as Dealer *usually does, and dec pointed out.
Inushtuk1 says: On most leads the plan is to dump my 2. This has 2 defensive effects. It rids me of my second smallest card, and breaks up the run. On a 4 lead there is no choice but to pair it. The 6 lead will see my 3, hoping Dealer was not leading from a pair. The 3 is also dumped on a 7 lead. Once again breaking up the run. On a 3 I play my Ace. At least i have rid myself of the most likely card I have to be trapped. Not sure about X-card leads whether the Ace or the Deuce is best.
Coeurdelion
5594 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Monday 5:07 PM
Several possibilities including 4-5, 5-Q, 4-Q and perhaps 2-3:

A-2-3-Q: 5pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.48) = 11½pts

A-2-3-4: 4pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 10½pts

A-2-3-5: 7pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.59) = 10½pts

A-4-5-Q: 4pts + 6¾pts (Schell: 7.00) = 10¾pts

Potential:

A-2-3-Q: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 555, 9999 + 15xXs = 34 cuts = 73.9% up to 12/14pts with AAA, 222, 333 = 9 cuts.

A-2-3-4: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 8/10pts with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 35 cuts.

A-2-3-5: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 11/12pts with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 555, 7777, 9999 + 15xXs = 38 cuts plus 9 clubs for an extra 1pt for the flush.

A-4-5-Q: Improves with AAA, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 9999 + 15xXs = 35 cuts = 76.1% up to 8/9/10pts AAA, 444, 555, 6666 + 15xXs = 28 cuts.

Pegging:

All these hands will peg well.

Position:

As First Dealer we'll play Defense to maintain our positional advantage.

Summary:

A-2-3-4 starts with 10½pts has guaranteed improvement as does A-2-3-5. A-2-3-4 has 35 cuts for 8/10pts whilst A-2-3-5 has 38 cuts for 11/12ps. Boths should peg well although playing Defense may be a problem with both hands . I'll throw the 5-Q for the better crib potential.
The_Bee_Mann
306 votes

Joined: November 2016
 
 
 
Monday 11:21 PM
I discarded the 4 and 5 keeping the A-2-3-Q.
Ras2829
5153 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Monday 11:41 PM
Lots of choices here. Inushtuk1 says it for me and am tuckered out after playing cribbage at the WA State Fair from opening to close. That fair runs from 9/1-23 and closes every Tuesday. If you are passing through or resident of this area, head for the Hobby Hall and get a few games in. Great fun and you'll be amazed at the number of folks watching and lining up behind the chairs for the next game. At one time it was the 5th largest fair with over a million in attendance. Think the numbers have dropped off the past few years though it is still a huge extravaganza.