Tuesday 3:22 AM

4-4-5-5 improves with most cuts: A,2,3,4,5,6,7 + X (38/46 = 82%). We know 10-K is a good discard to make to our opponent, and with the negative delta effect of 2 fives being out of circulation, it becomes even more effective here.

That said, 5-5-10-K is worth ten points and I don't have the stomach to break it up at this stage of the game, as I want every point I can muster.

Had I kept 4455, the cut would've given 8 points. As it is I still have 10, but Dealer's crib of 2-4-4-?-? is scarily just a 3 or 9 card away from being valuable.

5d lead gives a 50:50 chance to score 15/2, or maybe even a 2/46 chance at 15/8.

   

Tuesday 3:30 AM

Surely offense in this position but I am not sure about tossing 2 points to the dealer with a pair of 4's worth 6 points in value. I chose the safer toss 4-K worth 4.36 points in value and a hand that I believe has the potential with more cuts that tossing 10-K (which incidentally is lower in value, 3.85 points).the cut of a "2" didn't help my hand.

   

Tuesday 3:40 AM

Keeping the possible double run and tossing the killer XK to the pone crib.

   

Tuesday 5:33 AM

Hard to pass up 10 points with many cuts for 14-20.

   

Tuesday 6:43 AM

Elsewhere on the board, I'd toss K-10. Here I'll curl my nose and toss 44. I have a sure 10 pts, and someone is going to have to convince me to sacrifice points.

Lead the 10.

   

Tuesday 9:06 AM

It certainly *is* hard to pass up 10 points with many cuts for 14-20. It's *also* hard to pass up 4 cuts for 24, *and* make the best discard possible.

Gougie needs some convincing. Well, 4-4-5-5 has an average hand of 9.30. The 5-5-10-K averages only 2.61 points higher, even though it starts with 6 more. Using Ras's crib averages, 5-5-10-K wins with an expected average of 5.91. 4-4-5-5 has a respectable expected average of 5.46. James brought up the negative delta effect with us holding two 5's. I *think*, but am not sure, that the negative delta of retaining two 5's and tossing (10-K) is greater than that of holding two 5's and tossing (4-4). I'll leave that for Coeurdelion or JQT to explore further. Now which do you think will peg better offensively? Two touching pairs, or 5-5-10-K? I say 4-4-5-5 has the better chance to do some damage and score a run. Did I convince anyone? Probably not.

Leading the 4h.

   

Tuesday 9:25 AM

Only an 8 or 9 doesn't add value to this hand. Can't resist going for that 6 cut and tossing 10 K over the board. Part of me thinks this is a very bad choice and the other part of me doesn't care. heh

   

Tuesday 9:59 AM

The allure of K-10ing pone's crib is too strong...

   

Tuesday 1:00 PM

1. I am non dealer and 16 X-5's still in the deck. 2. If I needed a three to qualify in a tourney I might do the K-10. 3. A four point sacrafice not sure it is the right play. dec

   

Tuesday 1:25 PM

Well, playing offense does it seem that holding 4 points should be preferable to 10 points? Yup, it is! The offensive pegging edge goes to holding the adjacent pairs, only an 8/9 does not add value, and we've already doubled the value of the hand with the cut of the deuce. We avoid that pair of fours to opponent which averages 6.000 and discard 10-K 3.848 which scores 2 or less 45.494%. Of course the 4-4 will never score less than two points while many of the 10-K tosses result in a zero point crib. The 4-4 toss results in cribs of 8 points or more 32.220% while 10-K does that at rate of 16.529%. Those are huge differences when it comes to discard values. Inushtuk1 does a good job of covering potential pegging opportunities. Offense is not always what it seems and it is difficult to estimate with some degree of accuracy what pegging values of a given set of cards might be. Based on my scant empirical data the 4-4-5-5 is about .2 greater in offensive pegging value as compared to the 5-5-10-K. That's quite a small amount. That sliver of pegging value, the potential low-scoring crib, and the potential added value to hand score with all cuts other than the 8-9 makes the combined value higher for the two pairs.

   

Tuesday 1:30 PM

At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs__Crib___Total___W9 %____W10 %
4-4-5-5____9.30+1.37+(-3.49)=7.18____30.1____28.7
4-5-5-10___9.52+1.50+(-3.88)=7.14____30.7____29.3
5-5-10-K__11.91+1.20+(-6.17)=6.94____35.8____30.0

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
4-4-5-5______34.9____45.4
4-5-5-10_____36.0____45.8
5-5-10-K_____41.3____46.7

4-4-5-5 is best for expected averages by 0.04pt over 4-5-5-10. 5-5-10-K is best for Win %s but worst for Loss %s. 4-5-5-10 is second best for Win %s and Loss %s and as said only 0.04pt lower for expected averages. So I'll select 4-K to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll lead a 5 and play Offense:

Lead_______Our Pegging Pts.
5_______________1.48
10______________1.22
4_______________1.06

   

Tuesday 2:30 PM

I think its between 4-4-5-5, 5-5-10-K and 4-5-5-10:

4-4-5-5: 4pts - 4pts (Schell: 3.88) = 0pts

4-5-5-10: 6pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.36) = +1½pts

5-5-10-K: 10pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = +3½pts

Potential:

4-4-5-5: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 3333, 44, 55, 6666, 7777 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 16/24pts with 3333, 6666 = 8 cuts.

4-5-5-10: Improves with AAAA, 3333, 44, 55, 6666 + 14xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 12/14/16pts with 3333, 55, 6666, 101010 = 13 cuts.

5-5-10-K: Improves with 55 + 14xXs = 16 cuts = 34.8% up to 14/16/20pts with all cuts.

Pegging:

I think 4-4-5-5 will peg best with 4-5-5-10 next best.

Position:

As usual as First Pone I'll play Offense to try to improve my position.

Summary:

4-5-5-10 starts with +1½pts more than 4-4-5-5 and although its 2pts behind 5-5-10-K it has much better potential. So I'll select 4-K to discard.