Friday 3:06 AM

I find most times that fours in a crib do not always add up unless in this case they do a X-Ace. At any rate six or an eight cut gives me a dozen ,I am playing this way because of lack of position here. Two of clubs lead. dec

   

Friday 3:07 AM

Nice on myshadowaz.
Starting with 6 points, I am tossing 4-4 to dealer which is slightly lower in value (6.00 pts. vs. 6.19 pts) than 2-2.
I am choosing optimal strategy at this point with a hand that adds up to "11". I cannot see that we will get 15 points with this hand.

   

Friday 3:53 AM

I am keeping the six points and the five. The fours go to the pones crib only because I have to discard something. They seem better to give up than completely distroy my hand with other discards.

   

Friday 4:15 AM

Hope to cut a 3,7 or 9 (12/46 = 26%).

Could have hoped for the same with 2-2-2-4, and then also had the possible cut of 2H scoring 12, but I think 2-5 (with two other 2's out of circulation), will be sufficiently safer than 4-5.

   

Friday 5:47 AM

I'll keep the sure 6 points and lead the 2.

   

Friday 6:20 AM

I like this hold and will lead the four of spades. We have cuts for 12 to 16 points.

   

Friday 6:40 AM

Like the potential to peg with the three 2's and 5 (4-card magic 11). I think the 4-4 to opp's crib is slightly safer than 2-5 and definitely safer than 4-5. I will lead the 2 of spades for possible flush fake with play of 5 next.

   

Friday 8:56 AM

What makes this interesting to me is our relative positions. Dealer is likely to keep making hitting his CPZ's so it's up to me to eventually start hitting mine. Offense. Leading a 4 and hope for a cut and a 31/2 with my magic 11.

   

Friday 10:44 AM

The 2-2-2-5 has a better expected average, but not by all that much. Plus I think there is more negative delta with our (2-2) and us holding a third 2, than there is with the (4-4) and us holding a toucher 5. This keep has 6 cuts for12, and 4 for 14. Not so with 2-2-2-5. It's maximum is 12, and there are only 5 cuts for that hand value. We need the points. Also it seems to me there are more ways things can go wrong with a four card Magic Eleven" than a three card of the same. But maybe that's just me.

Lead the 4s. If all goes according to plan the count will be (26) at our turn, and we will have 4-5 left in our hand. Now if we are going to continue using the Magic Eleven, of course we must play the 5 for (31-2). But what about going off script with the 4 reply? This gambit, if it works could, could see us outscoring Dealer 3-1 if s/he is holding X-X-X-X. When to try this and when *not* to? Ah, there's the rub.

   

Friday 12:25 PM

At 55-62* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense____Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W4 %___W5 %
2-4-4-5____7.65+2.02+(-5.77)=3.90____6.5____23.8
2-2-2-5____8.35+1.50+(-5.97)=3.79____5.6____22.3

Offense_______L4 %___L5 %
2-4-4-5_______22.1___56.4
2-2-2-5_______24.2___58.6

2-4-4-5 is better for expected averages by 0.11pt and is also slightly better for Win %s and Loss %s. So I'll select 2D-2C to discard.

After the K cut I'll lead 4S and play Offense:

Lead_________Our Pegging Pts.
4_________________1.86
2_________________1.74
5_________________1.47

   

Friday 1:08 PM

Where, oh where, has the little 3 gone ? Oh where, oh where can it be?

I'll lead the 4s, play offense, and pray the 3 isn't in the dealer's crib. This hand should have roughly the same pegging as 2225. I'll play the 5 as soon as it is safe to do so. The dealer could very easily trap it if the pone holds it too long.

   

Friday 2:17 PM

RAS plays this hand often in this manner although don't like having to toss 2-2 to hold four points. Cuts of 3, 4, and 6 provide scores of 12-14. Only the Ace does not add value. Knowing that I have six points with that starter card King, will play offense and lead 4s. Will take any pegs offered. Good puzzle shadowaz. Glad the shut down was short-lived as am addicted to the site. Note the fine explanation above by Inushtuk1 in reply to HalscribCLX posting as to why 2-4-4-5 has better pegging value than 2-2-2-5.

   

Friday 2:26 PM

I think its between discarding a 2-2 or 4-4:

2-4-4-5: 4pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.38) = -2½pts

2-2-2-5: 6pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = -½pts

Potential:

2-4-4-5: Improves with 2, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 12/14pts 3333, 44, 6666 = 12 cuts.

2-2-2-5: Improves with 2, 555, 6666, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 32 cuts = 69.6% up to 12pts with 2, 6666, 8888 = 9 cuts.

Pegging:

I think both hands will peg quite well.

Position:

We need to be at 70pts or better for our next deal. 2-4-4-5 has more cuts for improvement and more cuts for a good hand plus a better maximum. Also 2-2 will score less due to negative delta as we have another 2. So although it starts with 2pts less I think it will make this up. To keep the fake flush I'll throw 2D-2C.