September 17, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
0*-0  ?
55%
30%
6%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 143
james500
3916 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Sunday 3:11 AM
A-5-5-9 for six points seems a good choice, but let's see how A-4-7-9 works out. Every cut will help my hand, and the crib should be good.
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 3:12 AM
Chose the best pegging hand, the highest combined average, and more cuts for improvement (26 cuts for 10/14 points). Have I chosen correctly for all the right reasons, Ras?
Guest says: Ras went to town, pick up mail
Ras2829 says: Hi Rosemarie44: You've got the three major points and you were within one minute of standing alone on the site. Good job!
Ras2829 says: Hi guest: No town for me today. Picking apples this morning.
Inushtuk1 says: Save the Macintosh for me.
Rosemarie44 says: Hi Ras2829: Thank you. Just got back from town!
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: Do have a cross with Macintosh and Newton Pippin. Fine apple, has the crunch, spice of the Mac, not as thick a peel, about half red, and keeps for about three months in cool storage. Picked five boxes of those this morning. Northern Spy is my best keeper lasting until May if picked in late September, all-purpose apple, old time variety.
Jazzselke
2583 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Sunday 3:15 AM
Always leery of an obvious choice with a Ras puzzle, in this case keeping A559. The only cards that don't help A459 would be a 7 or an 8, but either of those cuts would contribute to the 57 crib.A455 not viable as 79 is not a desirable throw.
dec
6351 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 3:29 AM
Can we make a potential of twelve points in main hand with discarding the fives? The answer is no. I am sastified with my choice so the pegging process I have to get ready for. A three lead I would do an Ace response. I would only pair a four or five lead. My pegging responses are usually pretty good. But would appreciate any input on this. dec
Guest says: Hi dec. I have more of a question than input for you. You have chosen A-4-5-5. Makes sense to me. However, as Dan suggested, there's often a catch to a Ras puzzle. We have a neat A-5-5 three card eleven. But on defense, as games starting dealer how best to respond to an X-card lead? The obvious 5 for (15-2) may lead to a (20-2) for the Pone. Then what do we do? Well we can't play the A for the untenable count of (21). And the 5 for (25-6) leaves us vulnerable to a (30-12); with only small consolation of the (31-2) with our A. We could avoid that problem by playing our A on Pone's X-card lead. But that forces his second X-card off the play, and down comes his 5 if he/she has one. Then we would have to play a 4, giving Pone a run opportunity, or the 5, making the count (21). How about we forget the Magic Eleven entirely and dump our 4 on the X-card lead? But only do this on defense. Perhaps this may be the reason for this submission.
Guest says: Hi dec. I have more of a question than input for you. You have chosen A-4-5-5. Makes sense to me. However, as Dan suggested, there's often a catch to a Ras puzzle. We have a neat A-5-5 three card eleven. But on defense, as games starting dealer how best to respond to an X-card lead? The obvious 5 for (15-2) may lead to a (20-2) for the Pone. Then what do we do? Well we can't play the A for the untenable count of (21). And the 5 for (25-6) leaves us vulnerable to a (30-12); with only small consolation of the (31-2) with our A. We could avoid that problem by playing our A on Pone's X-card lead. But that forces his second X-card off the play, and down comes his 5 if he/she has one. Then we would have to play a 4, giving Pone a run opportunity, or the 5, making the count (21). How about we forget the Magic Eleven entirely and dump our 4 on the X-card lead? But only do this on defense. Perhaps this may be the reason for this submission.
Inushtuk1 says: Sorry. That was me, Inushtuk1 above.
Inushtuk1 says: Sorry. That was me, Inushtuk1 above.
james500 says: Not that the question was asked of me, but I'll give my "2 pence worth" anyway. If Pone plays a 5 once the score is 11 making it 16, as you suggest, why not pair it? The score is now 21, so Pone might just trade points with us by taking 31/2, which wouldn't be the end of the world. Alternatively, they'll be able (and inclined since playing offence), to play another 5 for 26/6. Pause a little while, sip your drink seemingly deep in thought, and then take your 31/14.
james500 says: Not that the question was asked of me, but I'll give my "2 pence worth" anyway. If Pone plays a 5 once the score is 11 making it 16, as you suggest, why not pair it? The score is now 21, so Pone might just trade points with us by taking 31/2, which wouldn't be the end of the world. Alternatively, they'll be able (and inclined since playing offence), to play another 5 for 26/6. Pause a little while, sip your drink seemingly deep in thought, and then take your 31/14.
Inushtuk1 says: Ah! Thank you James. You see that's my problem. I need to drink more and worry less. ; - ). Also, with us holding two 5's it is probably safe to take the (15-2), rather than make the count 11. Like I said, I need to drink more...
Inushtuk1 says: Ah! Thank you James. You see that's my problem. I need to drink more and worry less. ; - ). Also, with us holding two 5's it is probably safe to take the (15-2), rather than make the count 11. Like I said, I need to drink more...
Inushtuk1 says: Hi again dec. I would definitely pair a 4 or 5 lead, but dump my 5d on the 3 lead; on the assumption that 3 more likely came from a 2-3, than a 3-4.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi again dec. I would definitely pair a 4 or 5 lead, but dump my 5d on the 3 lead; on the assumption that 3 more likely came from a 2-3, than a 3-4.
Inushtuk1 says: If Pone does surprise me with the 4 I have no choice but to pair it for (16-2).
Inushtuk1 says: If Pone does surprise me with the 4 I have no choice but to pair it for (16-2).
Guest says: in summation even with a recommended defense the opponent needs a lot to make their par.Trading off not so bad. dec
Guest says: in summation even with a recommended defense the opponent needs a lot to make their par.Trading off not so bad. dec
glmccuskey
4094 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Sunday 4:59 AM
Everything but a two cut helps either the hand or the crib. Like RAS has said before, most good decisions are rewarded. Hence the six cut.
Gougie00
5723 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 5:48 AM
I tossed my 5s in the crib. Usually works.
bbaer1
3685 votes

Joined: February 2011
 
 
 
Sunday 8:03 AM
Not being dealt any X-cards, I'll keep it this way.
Ras2829
5145 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 11:17 AM
Appreciate all the perceptive comments above. Only the 2, 7, and 8 do not add value to the hand and cuts of 7-8 likely to help the crib. After the six cut know that I have a guaranteed peg,14 points in hand, and two points in crib. So will move down the board 17 holes with certainty. Defense it is with a caveat. Will pair a 4 or five lead. Why might that be? Look for these "triple nickels" whether dealing or not at the bottom of the hand. Notice in live play how often folks don't see the value of them. In this case we are dealer. Often as non-dealer I witness folks with 2-3-3-5-10-K, 2-3-3-5-9-K, 2-3-3-5-10-K, or 2-3-3-5-9-K miss the hand potential of holding the "triple nickels" and making a very low scoring discard to opponent crib of 10-K or 9-K. The combined values favor holding the two points every time. Look for these; you'll be amazed how often you have this opportunity. glmccuskey has repeated one of my favorite lines: ..."good decisions are rewarded." He is correct by adding the word most. There are so many variables in this game that nobody can reach the point where all decisions are rewarded. If you could do that, you would be National Cribbage Champion hands down. Look for those "triple nickles" and you will be pleasantly rewarded very often.
Ras2829 says: Really pleased to see that 61% have made the A-4-5-5 choice at the time of my posting. More than half see the A-4-5-5 as the clear choice.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. I was typing while you were sending. I did not see your post before I sent mine. Why pair the 4? Well it has fewer losers than our other options. And the 5 if tripled by Pone for (15-8), gives us (20-12). As for all our good decisions being rewarded, we would never lose, and no one would want to play with us. ; - )
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: Will give up fewer points over time with such play by pairing the four rather than playing Ace for five or playing the five for count of nine. My data is pretty meager on pegging. It seems that I would give up 12 points in 15-2's by making count 5 with the play of the Ace and give up six once in each dozen such events. You could argue that giving up the 15-2 on the count of five is the easiest way out. Think I would do that here if only knew of 10 points or less (dealer peg, hand score, and crib).
Inushtuk1 says: Thank you.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi again Ras. What do you think about keeping A-5-5-9 on 4th Street on defense? Just for the added safety of an escape card. That might also have made a good submission.
Inushtuk1
1480 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 11:26 AM
Rosemarie says it best. Highest expected average and more cuts for improvement. Must keep the 4-5-5 together. Is this double run hopenosis? I don't think so. I *hope* not. the (7-9) is certainly not as desirable as the (6-8), but it sure bets the heck out of (4-7), and the average hand of A-4-5-5 is only 0.13 points short of A-5-5-9 even though it starts with 2 more points.

On any X-card lead I will dump my 5. Ignore the lunatic ravings of that Guest in dec's post. The 5 prevents the Pone from scoring the (15-2), and gets rid of one of my headaches. And so it is with the 9, 5, 3, 2, and Ace leads. I'll play the standard 4 on an 8 lead. Pairing the 4 lead. A 7, or 6 lead sees me dumping my Ace. This is the *second* most likely card Pone will be gunning for.
Inushtuk1 says: Last sentence of first paragraph should read A-4-5-5 starts with 2 *less* points.
cribbagepogo
3249 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Sunday 1:19 PM
So much for logic, I like A/4 in the crib. Cut works either way.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 3:00 PM
At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W9 %____W10 %
A-4-5-5___8.70+(-2.00)+4.02=10.72____38.8____49.7
A-5-5-9___8.83+(-1.91)+3.52=10.44____37.5____51.3
A-4-5-9___5.48+(-1.96)+6.11= 9.63____36.1____48.4
A-4-7-9___2.65+(-1.89)+8.78= 9.54____35.2____47.4
A-5-7-9___4.87+(-2.09)+6.48= 9.26____35.3____48.1

Defense_______L9 %____L10 %
A-4-5-5_______28.6____25.2
A-5-5-9_______24.9____23.0
A-4-5-9_______28.0____26.3
A-4-7-9_______28.0____27.1
A-5-7-9_______27.1____26.2

A-4-5-5 is best for expected averages and although A-5-5-9 is better for Win %s and Loss %s as its the start of the game I'll select 7-9 to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Sunday 5:46 PM
I think its between A-4-5-5 (7-9) and A-5-5-9 (4-7):

A-4-5-5: 4pts + 4¼pts (Schell: 4.04) = 8¼pts

A-5-5-9: 6pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.72) = 10pts

Potential:

A-4-5-5: Improves with AAA, 3333, 444, 55, 6666, 999 + 16xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 10/14pts with 55, 6666 + 16xXs = 22 cuts.

A-5-5-9: Improves with AAA, 55, 6666, 999 + 16xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 10/12/14pts with AAA, 55, 999 + 16xXs = 24 cuts.

Pegging:

I think both hands will peg quite well but playing Defense perhaps A-5-5-9 will be slightly better with 3 small cards and a high card.

Position:

As usual as First Dealer we'll play Defense to try to maintain our positional advantage.

Summary:

A-5-5-9 starts with 1¾pts more than A-4-5-5 but with A-4-5-5 there are 22 cuts for improvement to 10/14pts and the remaining 13 cuts improve to 8pts a huge increase from 4pts in both cases. A-4-5-5 may be more difficult to peg Defensively with but played judiciously I think it may not be too bad especially if Pone leads a tenth card. So I'll throw the suited 7-9.
BigFoot Bob
624 votes

Joined: April 2016
 
 
 
Monday 12:20 AM
Tossing the gapper and keeping the two ended chance for a double run or ten or face gives me eight points