October 10, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by rob
116*-113  ?
38%
38%
14%
14%
11%
11%
7%
7%
6%
6%
6%
6%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 189
Rosemarie44

Joined: March 2016 (2247 votes)

Tuesday 3:40 AM
These positions are most challenging for me, I'll take a stab at holding this hand. We will need to peg out before opponent counts his hand. He/she could be holding the 8 points necessary to do this.
Ras2829 says: Hi Rosemnarie44: Good choice as you have retained 4 different cards (5 has high pegging value, 7-8-9 have moderate pegging value, Queen has none). Don't need two eights either - so goodbye 8-Q!
Rosemarie44 says: Hi Ras: Did not see your comment till 10/11 AM! Thank you for your kind words.
glmccuskey

Joined: April 2011 (4486 votes)

Tuesday 4:04 AM
I like the connectors plus the five for a chance to peg out.
Jazzselke

Joined: March 2009 (2869 votes)

Tuesday 4:18 AM
Agree with Gary, 4 different cards to attempt to peg out. Depending on how the pegging goes, maybe try to keep 78 or 89 until the second sequence. Keeping 89 for the end actually has a nickname, The Langley Trap, referring to the great player from Washington, Jim Langley.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Dan. Ras has mentioned The Langley Trap and its variations. But the one I am familiar with would be something like 5-X-8-8. Pone leads his X-card to draw Dealer's lone 5, then plays his first 8(23). Waits for the GO, and pairs his/her own 8(31-4). How does it work with the 89? Also I played against him two or three times in my first tournament in Baker City in March of this year, and again on the Cribbage Cruise. A true Life Master, and more importantly, gentleman of the game.
Jazzselke says: 89 doesn't work in one particular way that I am aware of; just adjoining cards that could come in play at the end.
Inushtuk1 says: OK
Jazzselke

Joined: March 2009 (2869 votes)

Tuesday 4:18 AM
Agree with Gary, 4 different cards to attempt to peg out. Depending on how the pegging goes, maybe try to keep 78 or 89 until the second sequence. Keeping 89 for the end actually has a nickname, The Langley Trap, referring to the great player from Washington, Jim Langley.
Jazzselke says: Correction, Jim is from California. 5th ranked player of all-time.
Guest says: Also, his grand father was named for the Air Force base in Virgina
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6864 votes)

Tuesday 4:25 AM
Pegging out cards. By the way keeping the two suited may put doubt in opponents play on pegging. dec
spin121

Joined: March 2016 (299 votes)

Tuesday 6:31 AM
Hope pone has a clunker and if not maybe I can peg out with these beauties.
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (6178 votes)

Tuesday 6:43 AM
"One of the each" like my friend Claude would way. Obnoxious offense. Lets peg out.
Andy (muesli64)

Joined: August 2009 (2342 votes)

Tuesday 6:55 AM
Keep 'wide' cards to avoid any run.
Hillchem says: I ended up going with an assortment like the majority, but I did consider defensive pegging for a moment. I don't have Colvert's book in front of me right now, but what are the odds of keeping pone short here? It must be at least 25%, which maybe makes this a valid strategy considering the percentages given by Halscrib below, wouldn't it?
Mumble T Pegger

Joined: January 2015 (175 votes)

Tuesday 6:56 AM
This could get real interesting if Pone has a 4 and is a "see one, play one" player.
Jazzselke says: Great point Mike! Nice card last night!
Mumble T Pegger says: Thanks, Dan. We had some good game 9s. Dusty vs. Dwight both at 10/5 and me (11/5) vs. Lisa 13/6 for what turned out to be 1st place based on spread. See you next week. Oktoberfest menu is back!
rob

Joined: December 2013 (1807 votes)

Tuesday 7:40 AM
This was a fun endgame. I tossed Q-8 (suited, because why not?) to the crib to keep lower cards as peggers and to follow the "one of each" theory others mentioned. The real-life cut was a 9, not that it mattered. Pone had A-A-6-9 and he led an ace. I responded with the 5, he played 9 for 15-2. I paired the 9, and he played his remaining two cards for 31-2. That left me with a 7 and 8, which was just enough to peg out. I'm interested to know if I made the best discard choice or just got lucky.
Inushtuk1

Joined: July 2016 (1839 votes)

Tuesday 8:07 AM
Yes, keeping "one of the each" gives us the best chance to peg out before Pone shows out.

I see where Mumble T Pegger above, says it could get real interesting if Pone leads a 4. Indeed! I can only assume he would dump his 5 hoping for the 6(15-5). Then our 7 is (22-4). The score is now 120*-118. If Pone has a 3 or an 8 we're toast. I'm afraid I would play chicken on that 4 lead with my 9, keeping my 5-7-8 intact. But that's just me. Who knows?

Good puzzle rob, and I think you got 'lucky' *because* you made the best discard choice.
BigFoot Bob

Joined: April 2016 (624 votes)

Tuesday 10:58 AM
Thought more than I needed to. Kept the 5-Q for two and the 8-8 for a a octal of four points. With the one peg for sure it will be over with my hand. My idea on keeping just 5-8-8-Q only three cards can pair me and my card are wide. This hand is far from being over.
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4352 votes)

Tuesday 12:49 PM
I've kept the red cards, although since sevens and eights cover the same leads, maybe I should've kept 5-7-9-Q.
Coeurdelion

Joined: October 2007 (5766 votes)

Tuesday 12:55 PM
4 different cards, close cards peg well and the 5 is a good pegging card. So its 5-7-8-9 for me as well.
Ras2829

Joined: November 2008 (5496 votes)

Tuesday 1:34 PM
Suppose it makes no difference whether tossing suited or unsuited 8-Q as crib will never count. What are chances to limit non-dealer to no more than 7 holes? That's 1 in 5. So it's going for the pegs for me in this case. If opponent needed one more hole to count out 1 in 3 1/2, would have played the 5-8-8-Q and played SAFE on the pegs. A hole or two down in this area is so critical. Luck is a big factor in end-game scenarios and many times there is not a reward for those who make good decisions in this area. Will play BOLD on the pegs and take any that are available.
HalscribCLX

Joined: February 2008 (5710 votes)

Tuesday 1:38 PM
At 116*-113 playing an Optimal strategy the Chances of Our Pegging Out are:

Optimal________Dlr Peg Out %
5-7-8-9____________27.4
5-7-8-Q____________24.3
5-7-8-8____________24.0
5-7-9-Q____________23.3
5-8-8-9____________20.3
5-8-9-Q____________20.2
7-8-9-Q____________18.7
7-8-8-9____________17.3
5-8-8-Q____________16.2
8-8-9-Q____________15.1
7-8-8-Q____________12.9

5-7-8-9 has the best chance of pegging out for us at 27.4%. So I'll select 8H-Q to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Andy (muesli64) says: This is a nonsense in percentages as most of those hands peg out on point count. Given the one point for the dealer.
Coeurdelion says: Halscrib (Cribbage Prof) plays an 8 on an 8 lead and a 7 lead. Is this Defense?
Andy (muesli64) says: For example 588Q is just as good as 5789.
Coeurdelion says: Hi Andy! These aren't Win %s but Peg Out % and do not include scoring out if Pone is short.
Ras2829 says: Dealer needs five pegs. In regular game situations dealer pegs 3.8. Down here opponent will wiggle to avoid pegs if holding enough to win with first count. Dealer peg average in this tight end-game situation is more likely in the range of 2.8. Think Hal's % is right on. My uneducated guess would give dealer 25-30% chance to win by pegging out.