October 10, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by rob
116*-113  ?
38%
14%
11%
7%
6%
6%
3%
3%
3%
2%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 189

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Rosemarie44
613 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Tuesday 3:40 AM
These positions are most challenging for me, I'll take a stab at holding this hand. We will need to peg out before opponent counts his hand. He/she could be holding the 8 points necessary to do this.
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glmccuskey
2433 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Tuesday 4:04 AM
I like the connectors plus the five for a chance to peg out.
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Jazzselke
842 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Tuesday 4:18 AM
Agree with Gary, 4 different cards to attempt to peg out. Depending on how the pegging goes, maybe try to keep 78 or 89 until the second sequence. Keeping 89 for the end actually has a nickname, The Langley Trap, referring to the great player from Washington, Jim Langley.
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Jazzselke
842 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Tuesday 4:18 AM
Agree with Gary, 4 different cards to attempt to peg out. Depending on how the pegging goes, maybe try to keep 78 or 89 until the second sequence. Keeping 89 for the end actually has a nickname, The Langley Trap, referring to the great player from Washington, Jim Langley.
Reply
dec
3774 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Tuesday 4:25 AM
Pegging out cards. By the way keeping the two suited may put doubt in opponents play on pegging. dec
Reply
spin121
181 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Tuesday 6:31 AM
Hope pone has a clunker and if not maybe I can peg out with these beauties.
Reply
Gougie00
3299 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Tuesday 6:43 AM
"One of the each" like my friend Claude would way. Obnoxious offense. Lets peg out.
Reply
Andy (muesli64)
1276 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Tuesday 6:55 AM
Keep 'wide' cards to avoid any run.
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Mumble T Pegger
160 votes

Joined: January 2015

   
Tuesday 6:56 AM
This could get real interesting if Pone has a 4 and is a "see one, play one" player.
Reply
rob
1272 votes

Joined: December 2013

   
Tuesday 7:40 AM
This was a fun endgame. I tossed Q-8 (suited, because why not?) to the crib to keep lower cards as peggers and to follow the "one of each" theory others mentioned. The real-life cut was a 9, not that it mattered. Pone had A-A-6-9 and he led an ace. I responded with the 5, he played 9 for 15-2. I paired the 9, and he played his remaining two cards for 31-2. That left me with a 7 and 8, which was just enough to peg out. I'm interested to know if I made the best discard choice or just got lucky.
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Inushtuk1
360 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Tuesday 8:07 AM
Yes, keeping "one of the each" gives us the best chance to peg out before Pone shows out.

I see where Mumble T Pegger above, says it could get real interesting if Pone leads a 4. Indeed! I can only assume he would dump his 5 hoping for the 6(15-5). Then our 7 is (22-4). The score is now 120*-118. If Pone has a 3 or an 8 we're toast. I'm afraid I would play chicken on that 4 lead with my 9, keeping my 5-7-8 intact. But that's just me. Who knows?

Good puzzle rob, and I think you got 'lucky' *because* you made the best discard choice.
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BigFoot Bob
537 votes

Joined: April 2016

   
Tuesday 10:58 AM
Thought more than I needed to. Kept the 5-Q for two and the 8-8 for a a octal of four points. With the one peg for sure it will be over with my hand. My idea on keeping just 5-8-8-Q only three cards can pair me and my card are wide. This hand is far from being over.
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james500
1560 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Tuesday 12:49 PM
I've kept the red cards, although since sevens and eights cover the same leads, maybe I should've kept 5-7-9-Q.
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Coeurdelion
3255 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Tuesday 12:55 PM
4 different cards, close cards peg well and the 5 is a good pegging card. So its 5-7-8-9 for me as well.
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Ras2829
2785 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Tuesday 1:34 PM
Suppose it makes no difference whether tossing suited or unsuited 8-Q as crib will never count. What are chances to limit non-dealer to no more than 7 holes? That's 1 in 5. So it's going for the pegs for me in this case. If opponent needed one more hole to count out 1 in 3 1/2, would have played the 5-8-8-Q and played SAFE on the pegs. A hole or two down in this area is so critical. Luck is a big factor in end-game scenarios and many times there is not a reward for those who make good decisions in this area. Will play BOLD on the pegs and take any that are available.
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HalscribCLX
3000 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Tuesday 1:38 PM
At 116*-113 playing an Optimal strategy the Chances of Our Pegging Out are:

Optimal________Dlr Peg Out %
5-7-8-9____________27.4
5-7-8-Q____________24.3
5-7-8-8____________24.0
5-7-9-Q____________23.3
5-8-8-9____________20.3
5-8-9-Q____________20.2
7-8-9-Q____________18.7
7-8-8-9____________17.3
5-8-8-Q____________16.2
8-8-9-Q____________15.1
7-8-8-Q____________12.9

5-7-8-9 has the best chance of pegging out for us at 27.4%. So I'll select 8H-Q to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
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