October 11, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
26*-29  ?
41%
26%
20%
10%
0%
Total votes: 160
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:16 AM
Good one Ras! Decided on tossing 5-J today. Would we use optimal strategy? Holding a four card for an out card along with the close cards of 7-9-9.
Guest says: A no brainier today
Guest says: Perhaps you should try to be the brainiest!
glmccuskey
4095 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:17 AM
Good decisions are often rewarded as RAS would say. 7-9-9 seem to go together and the 7-4 form a magic eleven. That leaves the 5-J for the crib.
dec
6352 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:14 AM
20 cuts to improve not enough compared to the J-5 discard. Closer then you think here. Eleven count to use n the pegging. dec
Jazzselke
2583 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:20 AM
Agree with all commenters so far.
We are in good dealing position and would like to prevent opponent from getting past Hole 43. If position not favorable would toss 45.
Guest says: I went with 4-5 to put touching cards in my crib, and have two chances at a double run in my hand. S :)
Guest says: I went with 4-5 to put touching cards in my crib, and have two chances at a double run in my hand. S :)
Jazzselke says: As Dan C.mentions it's a close call. Only keeping it this way with the 47 because of our position.
Jazzselke says: As Dan C.mentions it's a close call. Only keeping it this way with the 47 because of our position.
Guest says: You know I am lousy at that lol. S:) Am on for Marinette, and looks like we'll be bringing a friend along!
Guest says: You know I am lousy at that lol. S:) Am on for Marinette, and looks like we'll be bringing a friend along!
BigFoot Bob
624 votes

Joined: April 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:19 AM
Can't deny a blind hog a acorn.
Inushtuk1 says: Inushtuk say whaaaaat?!
Gougie00
5724 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:23 AM
Ah-h. I am breaking new ground here. I am tossing 45 in my own crib, because they are touchies, but also because I like the 799J incase of an 8 or 10 cut. My stretch goal is hole 45 and I might get there.

Mumble T Pegger
175 votes

Joined: January 2015
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:02 AM
Prefer holding it this way to have more chances of cutting into a double run and I like 4-5 in the crib.
Inushtuk1
1480 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 8:12 AM
Two gut shots at a three card double run, plus (5-J) has some negative delta with us retaining the 4. But it was not easy to give up the Magic Eleven.
Inushtuk1 says: Nice cut for everyone. We have 14 known points. This puts us at least at hole 40. Our goal for next Deal is 43/44. Defense without the Magic Eleven. We can do this. On 8 of the possible 13 leads dump the suited 9. I prefer the 7 on the 4 lead, hoping that 4 came from a 2-4-9-?, and not a 4-4-?-?. Of course this will backfire often, but hey, that's what makes cribbage so much fun right? I'll take the (15-2) on the 6 lead as I don't want to make the count (16) with my J. Besides the fact that it is likely to be paired from a 6-9-10-J; any X-card makes the count (26), and we are forced to say GO. Pone can have the (24-2) with his logical 9, because my 7 closes the count at (31-2). We're up 4-2 after the first play series. Playing away with the J on a 7, or 8 lead. Now the 9 lead is the one card I really didn't want to see Pone lead. We'll just have to risk pairing it, and take the 2 points. Probably giving up 6 here, but at least we scored 2. Anything else could give up 3 points with us getting nothing in return. With that 9 lead I would have been better off with the 4 in my hand so I could recoup 2 of those 6 points with my (31-2). The 10, or J lead allows me to play away again with my 7. The 5 lead gets my suited 9, as that pesky 5 lead so often comes from 5-10-J-Q, or 5-J-Q-K.
james500
3917 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Wednesday 12:55 PM
I'm in the Jack-Five club today.
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:10 PM
Keeping 2+2pts means 9-9 or 5-J or we could keep 4pts with 5-9-9-J (4-7) and perhaps 7-9-9-J (4-5) is worth looking at:

4-5-7-J: 2pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.16) = 7¼pts

4-7-9-9: 2pts + 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = 9pts

5-9-9-J: 4pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.72) = 8pts

7-9-9-J: 2pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.48) = 8½pts

Potential:

4-5-7-J: Improves with AAAA, 3333, 444, 555, 6666, 777, 8888 + 15xXs = 40 cuts = 40/46 = 87.0% up to 6/7/8pts with 3333, 444, 555, 6666, JJJ = 17 cuts. Plus 11 clubs for an extra 1pt for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

4-7-9-9: Improves with 2222, 444, 6666, 777, 8888, 99 = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 6/10pts with 2222, 444, 6666, 8888, 99 = 17 cuts

5-9-9-J: Improves with AAAA, 555, 6666, 99 + 15xXs = 28 cuts = 60.9% up to 8/12pts with AAAA, 555, 6666, 99 = 13 cuts. Plus 11 clubs for an extra 1pt for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

7-9-9-J: Improves with 555, 6666, 777, 8888, 99, 10101010, JJJ = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 6/8/10pts with 6666, 8888, 99, 10101010 = 14 cuts. Plus 11 clubs for an extra 1pt for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

Pegging:

With a magic eleven and the 4-5 pegging cards I think 4-5-7-J will peg best.

Position:

It looks as if its third deal and we've lost a little ground but still have positional advantage so I'll play Defense to maintain it.

Summary:

4-5-7-J has the most cuts for improvement and although it will peg well has a maximum of 6-8pts but with 17 cuts. It has the lowest starting value though. 4-7-9-9 has many fewer cuts for improvement but starts with 9pt and has 17 cuts for 6-10pts. Both 5-9-9-J and 7-9-9-J start with 8/8½pts and similar number of cuts for improvement. 5-9-9-J has 13 cuts for 8-12pts while 7-9-9-J has 14 cuts for 6-10pts. Playing Defense I think 7-9-9-J will peg well so I'm inclined to throw the 4-5.

Ras2829 says: Hi Coeurdelion: Sure appreciate the quality of your substantive analysis. Your contribution adds immensely to the value of this site.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:29 PM
At 26*-29 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W7 %____W8 %
7-9-9-J___4.37+(-2.17)+6.62=8.82____32.3____44.4
4-7-9-9___3.96+(-2.04)+6.87=8.79____31.2____42.6
5-9-9-J___6.67+(-2.07)+3.69=8.29____30.5____42.6
4-9-9-J___4.20+(-2.17)+6.21=8.24____29.8____43.3
4-5-7-J___4.98+(-2.17)+4.98=7.79____30.8____41.3

Defense______L7 %____L8 %
7-9-9-J______32.0____33.5
4-7-9-9______33.8____35.7
5-9-9-J______32.7____35.5
4-9-9-J______31.1____34.5
4-5-7-J______35.2____37.4

7-9-9-J is best for expected averages by 0.03pt but is appreciably better for Win %s and Loss %s which take account of the board position. So I'll select 4-5 to discard.

After the 8 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Ras2829
5146 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:33 PM
With opponent needing 14 points to reach 2nd street CPZ 43-47, RAS has chosen def., def., optimal. The optimal choice results from knowing that I have a guaranteed peg, 11 points in hand, and a minimum of two points in crib. That would put me at hole 40. Given that will play off the lead. The hand does even slightly better than the figures shown by HalscribCLX above if choosing an optimal strategy. Will play off the lead. Often when looking at hands such as this holding for two cuts to provide a double run is preferable. Gougie00 points this out very well above. The 4-5 (using Hal's figures) is within .25 hundredths of the crib potential of the 5-J.