October 11, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
26*-29  ?
41%
26%
20%
10%
0%
Total votes: 160

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Rosemarie44
666 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Wednesday 3:16 AM
Good one Ras! Decided on tossing 5-J today. Would we use optimal strategy? Holding a four card for an out card along with the close cards of 7-9-9.
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glmccuskey
2483 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Wednesday 3:17 AM
Good decisions are often rewarded as RAS would say. 7-9-9 seem to go together and the 7-4 form a magic eleven. That leaves the 5-J for the crib.
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dec
3837 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Wednesday 4:14 AM
20 cuts to improve not enough compared to the J-5 discard. Closer then you think here. Eleven count to use n the pegging. dec
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Jazzselke
876 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Wednesday 4:20 AM
Agree with all commenters so far.
We are in good dealing position and would like to prevent opponent from getting past Hole 43. If position not favorable would toss 45.
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BigFoot Bob
585 votes

Joined: April 2016

   
Wednesday 5:19 AM
Can't deny a blind hog a acorn.
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Gougie00
3351 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Wednesday 5:23 AM
Ah-h. I am breaking new ground here. I am tossing 45 in my own crib, because they are touchies, but also because I like the 799J incase of an 8 or 10 cut. My stretch goal is hole 45 and I might get there.

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Mumble T Pegger
174 votes

Joined: January 2015

   
Wednesday 6:02 AM
Prefer holding it this way to have more chances of cutting into a double run and I like 4-5 in the crib.
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Inushtuk1
407 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Wednesday 8:12 AM
Two gut shots at a three card double run, plus (5-J) has some negative delta with us retaining the 4. But it was not easy to give up the Magic Eleven.
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james500
1609 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Wednesday 12:55 PM
I'm in the Jack-Five club today.
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Coeurdelion
3304 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Wednesday 4:10 PM
Keeping 2+2pts means 9-9 or 5-J or we could keep 4pts with 5-9-9-J (4-7) and perhaps 7-9-9-J (4-5) is worth looking at:

4-5-7-J: 2pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.16) = 7¼pts

4-7-9-9: 2pts + 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = 9pts

5-9-9-J: 4pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.72) = 8pts

7-9-9-J: 2pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.48) = 8½pts

Potential:

4-5-7-J: Improves with AAAA, 3333, 444, 555, 6666, 777, 8888 + 15xXs = 40 cuts = 40/46 = 87.0% up to 6/7/8pts with 3333, 444, 555, 6666, JJJ = 17 cuts. Plus 11 clubs for an extra 1pt for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

4-7-9-9: Improves with 2222, 444, 6666, 777, 8888, 99 = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 6/10pts with 2222, 444, 6666, 8888, 99 = 17 cuts

5-9-9-J: Improves with AAAA, 555, 6666, 99 + 15xXs = 28 cuts = 60.9% up to 8/12pts with AAAA, 555, 6666, 99 = 13 cuts. Plus 11 clubs for an extra 1pt for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

7-9-9-J: Improves with 555, 6666, 777, 8888, 99, 10101010, JJJ = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 6/8/10pts with 6666, 8888, 99, 10101010 = 14 cuts. Plus 11 clubs for an extra 1pt for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

Pegging:

With a magic eleven and the 4-5 pegging cards I think 4-5-7-J will peg best.

Position:

It looks as if its third deal and we've lost a little ground but still have positional advantage so I'll play Defense to maintain it.

Summary:

4-5-7-J has the most cuts for improvement and although it will peg well has a maximum of 6-8pts but with 17 cuts. It has the lowest starting value though. 4-7-9-9 has many fewer cuts for improvement but starts with 9pt and has 17 cuts for 6-10pts. Both 5-9-9-J and 7-9-9-J start with 8/8½pts and similar number of cuts for improvement. 5-9-9-J has 13 cuts for 8-12pts while 7-9-9-J has 14 cuts for 6-10pts. Playing Defense I think 7-9-9-J will peg well so I'm inclined to throw the 4-5.

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HalscribCLX
3055 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Wednesday 4:29 PM
At 26*-29 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W7 %____W8 %
7-9-9-J___4.37+(-2.17)+6.62=8.82____32.3____44.4
4-7-9-9___3.96+(-2.04)+6.87=8.79____31.2____42.6
5-9-9-J___6.67+(-2.07)+3.69=8.29____30.5____42.6
4-9-9-J___4.20+(-2.17)+6.21=8.24____29.8____43.3
4-5-7-J___4.98+(-2.17)+4.98=7.79____30.8____41.3

Defense______L7 %____L8 %
7-9-9-J______32.0____33.5
4-7-9-9______33.8____35.7
5-9-9-J______32.7____35.5
4-9-9-J______31.1____34.5
4-5-7-J______35.2____37.4

7-9-9-J is best for expected averages by 0.03pt but is appreciably better for Win %s and Loss %s which take account of the board position. So I'll select 4-5 to discard.

After the 8 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
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Ras2829
2842 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Wednesday 5:33 PM
With opponent needing 14 points to reach 2nd street CPZ 43-47, RAS has chosen def., def., optimal. The optimal choice results from knowing that I have a guaranteed peg, 11 points in hand, and a minimum of two points in crib. That would put me at hole 40. Given that will play off the lead. The hand does even slightly better than the figures shown by HalscribCLX above if choosing an optimal strategy. Will play off the lead. Often when looking at hands such as this holding for two cuts to provide a double run is preferable. Gougie00 points this out very well above. The 4-5 (using Hal's figures) is within .25 hundredths of the crib potential of the 5-J.
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