October 12, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by james500
67*-81  ?
46%
23%
17%
3%
3%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 162
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 3:14 AM
This is a repeat of the hand submitted on 9/28/17 but with different positions on the board. I chose to toss 5-8 again to my crib.
BigFoot Bob
624 votes

Joined: April 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 3:17 AM
Went with the simple double run today.
Ras2829
5147 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 3:22 AM
This hand has such a chance for growth, go for it when this 4-card 15-2 is present. Cut the fourth 4 spot for one of crib's rarest 20-pointers. At hole 67 with opponent already at 81 it's off., off., off. for me. That lousy 9 starter card missed the hand and is not likely to add much value to the crib. Am at a loss for words this early morn.
Ras2829 says: Well looking back to 9/28, did offer this. Presented here for what it's worth! "Here are some significant parameters on comparing 5-8 and 4-8 discards to own crib. The 5-8 average is 5.564 (550)16/91 scores wo points 7.09% and scores 8 or more 24.909%. The 4-8 weighs in at 3.773 (even lower in this case because of the presence of the 3 in hand) (431) 58/91, scores two or less 33.097% and tallies 8 or more 15.720%. Those are very wide differences in deed. Of course the 5-8 never scores zero while there are many 3 card additions to 4-8 that result in zero points."
dec
6353 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 3:32 AM
Go for the triple and/or the three,four cuts and we a nick in the crib. Time to shift into second if not third. dec
Jazzselke
2583 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Thursday 4:03 AM
Agree with commenters,or is it commentators (attention Dave Aiken, JQT). Hold the oen-ended triple-run and a 5 in the crib.
Jazzselke says: ...commentors..open...
james500 says: Hi Dan. Usually somebody who participates in or carries out an activity is known as a (verb) er. Build-Builder, weld-welder, speak-speaker, play-player etc. It follows then that someone who commentates would be a commentater, however the spell checker always amends this to commentator when I type it.
james500 says: Me again. I've clearly misread your original post. Your question wasn't the correct spelling of someone who commentates, "Commentater" vs "Commentator", but whether you should describe the people on here as having commented or having commentated. My apologies, I'm hanging my head in shame as we speak, which makes it very awkward to see what I'm typing by the way.
Jazzselke says: James, I wouldn't be too hard on yourself....
Guest says: Commenter. A commentator is someone who does live commentary, like an anchorperson or narrator. (and I held the hand your way--sorry about your lousy score and weather at the Cubs game ) S:)
Guest says: am wondering if James is Mr Head Judge in Reno, etc..... S :)
Jazzselke says: James,I believe, is from England
james500
3917 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Thursday 4:50 AM
Wasn't aware that I'd sent in what is essentially the same puzzle, twice in short succession. Oops.

I'm little behind here and so is Pone, no need for me to keep an escape card then. 5-8 instead of the 4-5 I chose a fortnight or so ago. It was wrong then and would be even "wronger" today.
Ras2829 says: HI james500: No problem with the duplicate submission. I looked at it and thought of deleting as moderator. Then noticed the position was different and perhaps you wanted to see if the choices would be the same in this position as compared to the submission of 9/28?
glmccuskey
4095 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Thursday 5:33 AM
Looks like we all agree.
Mumble T Pegger
175 votes

Joined: January 2015
 
 
 
Thursday 6:08 AM
Dan, a commenter makes isolated comments. A commentator is someone who provides commentary (I.e., expresses opinions or offers explanations about an event or situation). So, I would say that someone like me is a commenter on this site whereas someone like Ras is a commentator.
Jazzselke says: That's interesting
Guest says: Bingo! oh, wrong game, but I agree. S :)
Gougie00
5725 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 7:51 AM
Wondering if suited 45 might be the right answer if the scenario was different. I'm behind by 17 and need a monster hand. The 9 doesnt fit the bill, and I probably just lost.
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Thursday 8:09 AM
As james500 has said we had this hand on September 28th except its a different board position. Then we were playing Defense. Here I would play Offense as we're short of position. I think 5-8 is still the right discard.
Inushtuk1
1481 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 9:08 AM
Like I said two weeks ago, I keep it this way on offense and defense.
Inushtuk1 says: In Colvert's book, in the Little Turkey Plays section, he mentions that perhaps Dealer CAN play three in a sequence. But I haven't had much luck with that with this hand. I'll be dumping my suited 4 on most leads. The exceptions would be any X-card lead and a 5. With the X-card lead I'm hoping for the 3-4-4 Magic Eleven. To wit: X(10)-3(13)-X(23)-4(27)-GO-4(31-4). On the 5 lead I'm hoping it came from 5-X-X-X. To wit: 5(5)-3(8)-X(18)-4(22)-GO-4(26-2)-4(30-7). Other than that it seems we can score more by showing a suited 4 first. Comments?
Jazzselke says: X-3-6-4-go-4-4 27 for 2 and 31 for 8
Jazzselke says: Colvert's book is wrong on 3 aces as the dealer; no way can you play 3 aces in a row.
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: Think you are correct that you will peg more on average by making the count 14 on a X-point lead. Good chance then to advance the count to 31-4 as you show above. You can get 31-8 if non-dealer leads a 6 from 10-J-Q or similar and dealer plays the trey on the six which advances the count to 19 with the non-dealer playing any of those X-pointers, play of the four makes 23 and a go. So you would score the pair for two followed by the 31-8. Not going to happen very often though. If needing 10 pegs desperately, seems like the thing to do. Dealer can score back-to-back triples on any three of a kind other than the Aces as Jazzselke points out. Can anybody design a hand where the dealer drops in three Aces back-to-back as is common with other triples?
Guest says: Can't it go. 10. 2(12) 10(22) a(23) a(24) a(25)Dealer all pictures. Non dealer 2 a a a
Guest says: I mean non dealer all pictures
Ras2829 says: HI Guest: Bingo! So non-dealer has all X-pointers and dealer holds A-A-A-2. So it goes X-2-X for 22, dealer plays first Ace for 23, "go", and pairs for 2, and trips for 6 and a go. Is that how it works?
Jazzselke says: That is correct. I mispoke, NON-dealer cannot play 3 aces in a row.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 1:14 PM
At 67*-81 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs_Crib_Total____W3 %____W4 %
3-4-4-4___10.80+2.85+5.57=19.22____11.9____33.0
3-4-4-5*__11.67+3.67+3.59=18.93_____9.7____28.7
3-4-4-8*___8.22+3.09+6.23=17.54_____7.6____26.8

Defense_______L3 %____L4 %
3-4-4-4_______28.6____54.6
3-4-4-5*______31.8____60.4
3-4-4-8*______28.8____61.8

* suited discards

3-4-4-4 is better for expected averages by 0.29pt and is significantly better for Win %s and Loss %. So I'll select 5-8 to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
HalscribCLX says: Headings should be Offense.