October 19, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by Inushtuk1
69-73*  ?
92%
5%
0%
0%
Total votes: 169
BigFoot Bob
624 votes

Joined: April 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 3:09 AM
Yahoo!
Guest says: What goes around comes around. Donate 2 points to your opponent and you are rewarded with 16. Can't tell you how many times I've experienced this. Dwight
dec
6359 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 3:11 AM
That sure is a shiny lure there lets see if I can steal the bait here. Looks like I might have escaped with the prize here possibly. Play the percentages and position that the cut might be ours alone. Eight lead, I am not a big fan of a possible six or five response here. dec
Inushtuk1 says: Hi dec. I see what you mean about the six or five response. But I would counter-reply with my 9, keeping the 10-10 intact. But I chose offense after the cut. You might have switched to defense, as Ras did.
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 3:14 AM
I am going for it! Starting with eight points and a possibility of 16 maximum vs. three points and a maximum of 8 points tossing the balking cards of 10-K (usually worth 2 points in opponent's crib).
Guest says: No brainier today
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 3:41 AM
Position Position. I need help to get my next CPZ. Opponent is already there. Playing defense not my nature anyway. Go for it KK away. Go find some horses for your kingdoms.
wasa
3019 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Thursday 5:34 AM
Great minds think alike... strongly feel I have to keep the double run.
james500
3924 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Thursday 6:14 AM
I doubt it'll be the optimum hold, but I'd like to see how 10-K would fare, especially since I have another of each.

King lead.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 7:51 AM
The only way I can possibly reach the desired board position is to "go for it!"

BINGO! Lead the 8 and hope the net of 10 points plus pegging points is enough to get us where we want to be on our deal.
Jazzselke
2587 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Thursday 8:08 AM
Sneaky Inushtuk! This exact scenario is in DeLynn's book in his chapter on position,how do I remember these things? Our opponent is just past the CPZ, we will be there dealing next hand with just a couple points. We are 26 points from the NEXT one, we can't get there with a 16 hand. So its defense for me.
Jazzselke says: 10-K, not sure why it didn't show.
Inushtuk1 says: Yeah I'm sneaky alright. But you and james500 are too damn smart for your own good. : - ). And how do you remember these things anyway? But here's the thing. I don't agree with DeLynn here, and I'm not sure Halscrib or Ras will either. Obviously the bot will say our best chances to win is to keep the double run. And the lesser chances to lose will be to break it up as you and James have done. But we are -17 and Dealer is plus 3 using Schell's Simplified System. That definitely calls for defense for sure. And using CPZ's we should play defense as well. But still I can't wrap my head around this one. It feels like offense to me. Hence the submission. One of these days I'll figure this board position thing out.
Inushtuk1 says: Perhaps instead of rambling on above, I should have just referred you to joekayak's post above. He expresses my sentiments exactly. Haven't we *lost* the battle for 3rd Street? Don't we need *offense* to win the struggle for 4th Street? Are you getting a sense of my confusion, and frustration over this particular position conundrum? Somebody just shoot me please!
Jazzselke says: Don't take it that seriously! Would like to see you at another tournament!
Inushtuk1 says: Lucky for me I'm Canadian and don't own a gun. Lol
Guest says: lucky for me I'm American and don't own a gun
Guest says: Hi Inushtuk1, I'm not familiar with Schell's Simplified System but I have to wonder why he's adding the extra point to it. I'm sure he has good reasons for it. For the sake of argument (my argument) let's say we are only -13 here. If you add the ten holes we normally get as pone and then add another 13 holes that I say we are short we end up at hole 118 as dealer if perfect averages hold true - 16 10 16 10 16 10 etc. and we probably win the game by pegging out before opponent gets his first count. (69 23 = 92) (92 16 = 108) (108 10 = 118)Meanwhile opponent is moving from hole 73 to somewhere. Let's use the average number of holes dealer moves which is 16 pts. (73 16 = 89) (89 10 = 99) (99 16 = 115) In this position I think if we have a good hand play offense and if we have a bad hand play defense and if we have an average hand I honestly do not know. "Do we take a chance on getting the extra 13 holes by the end of the game or do we take a chance on trying to reduce opponent's average by 5 holes by the end of the game" spin
Gougie00
5731 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 8:40 AM
Gambit paid off. Always a worry when I have to give my opponent points. Lead the 9?
Inushtuk1
1488 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 9:29 AM
Sorry DeLynn. I know you're a five time national champion, and have about 50,000 more MRP's than me; but I have to disagree with you on this one. The cut hit my hand. God only knows how much damage I did by tossing the cowboys. Offense on the lead of the 8.
Sgt Pegger
279 votes

Joined: July 2017
 
 
 
Thursday 10:01 AM
For me in this position....this is a no-brainer.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 10:24 AM
Given that 'Dealing from Beyond Hole 70' is the coveted positional goal of Third Street, would we rather be Pone or Dealer today?

Since we're now Pone and since we may have already in a sense met that goal ourselves, throwing points to our Opponent (who is now dealing from Hole 73, a subjectively superior POSITION) will possibly only serve to help our Opponent better meet that same goal!

Therefore I think it may be better to 'hedge' here and Toss (T K).

And look: after the 9 Card Cut, we have a Double RUN! Who Knew?
Guest says: the Shadow knew
Ras2829
5155 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 11:58 AM
With opponent already dealing at hole 73, see nothing to be gained by tossing the low-scoring 10-K to opponent crib and playing three points with limited growth potential. My mind is going off., off., def. Note the shift after seeing the starter card. The K-K does average 5.589 to opponent crib, almost a point and half more than when tossed to own. These larger double runs, RAS often refers to as suicide hands. You can't afford in most cases to reduce from 8 points to three and there is little chance to redeem oneself with pegging as the larger cards offer very limited pegging to non-dealer. Knew of this in De Lynn's book although could not have told you the page number. Might even have handed out a paper showing this in my earlier days of crib class. By the way if positions were reversed, would have taken my chances on reducing the hand to three points as shown directly above by JQT. A few holes different around these critical zones are very crucial to effective decision making. Just not here! Will lead the 8. Don't like how leading the ten works, hoping that dealer dropped mid-cards as usual to crib. Frequency of discards by dealer include heavy preponderance of two mid-cards or two low cards. In fact of the ten most frequent dealer discards, eight are mid cards or low cards. A five is not among the ten although the 2-3 and J-Q are. K-K scores two points with a whole lot of the deck.
Ras2829 says: BTW it would be my estimate that we have 1/5 chance to win even going for a big cut on this hand and getting one. Hope HalscribCLX posts today so that we can see the projected win/loss %. Our chances are not very good with opponent dealing from 73, regardless of the cut or strategy choice.
spin121
299 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 1:11 PM
Offense or defense, that is the question. Flip a coin but nothing is going to change the fact that dealer is sitting at hole 73.
JQT says: That's it: you said it, in a nutshell. Cribbage can be a very fickle mistress sometimes, and one single good or bad Cut can make or break us, it can lead us to Victory or can ruin us. Those who choose DEFENSE here are forgoing Five Points but in doing so, they are preventing Two Points in the Dealer's Crib, so in the abstract, that's a differential of only Three Holes. Meanwhile, the Dealer could throw a PAIR of Queens today, and we might Cut the Dealer a Jack! That's right: if we Toss (K K), the Crib could be worth Sixteen Points, but if we Toss (T K), it could *still* be worth Ten Points. And that's just ONE scenario. If we Cut a 5 Card and Dealer throws Toss (5 K), that Toss (K K) discard could yield Twenty Points in the Crib! And Toss (T K) could easily give up Sixteen Points as well. And meanwhile, if we Toss (T K) and Cut a 9 card, we may hold just Eight Points as opposed to Sixteen Points. It can slice both ways. We tend to think of POSITIONAL play as a discrete choice of either OFFENSE or DEFENSE, but in fact if either or both players are extremely close to any positional zone, the logic we often apply for playing either OFFENSE or DEFENSE virtually becomes a "Step-Function" as it leaps from one to the other. Most important is sometimes not so much which we choose but HOW WELL WE PLAY IT.
Guest says: Well said JQT. Looking at the numbers: If playing defense we are playing for dealer to lose 5 pts on average of 26 pts for 2 deals by the end of the game. If we playing offense we are looking to gain 6 pts on average of the 26 pts for 2 deals by the end of the game.It's a wash.
Guest says: spin
Guest says: For the record my second calculation is off there. Looks like if playing offense we need to gain about 13 pts by the end of game. spin
Guest says: btw I have a good excuse for screwing up but it's too complicated to go into. :) spin
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 5:14 PM
At 69-73* playing an Offense strategy the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Our
Offense______Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W3 %__W4 %
8-9-10-10___10.39+1.15+(-5.77)=5.77____3.8___17.1
8-9-10-K*____4.83+1.20+(-3.79)=2.24____0.8___11.9

Offense________L3 %__L4 %
8-9-10-10______21.5__60.2
8-9-10-K*______15.6__54.8

* unsuited 10-K

8-9-10-10 is 3.54pts better for expected averages and very much better for Win %s. It is however also very much poorer for Loss %s because of the risk of the K-K . Even so I'll select K-K to discard because of the very large difference in expected averages.

After the 9 cut I'll lead the 8 and play Offense:

Lead____________Our Pegging Pts.
8___________________1.40
10__________________1.21
9___________________1.09