November 10, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by ras2829
87*-87  ?
47%
46%
4%
1%
0%
Total votes: 168
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Friday 3:01 AM
Very often in Cribbage, the clues that can help us to decode a particular hand are visible and yet mysteriously hidden within the hand itself.

And both logic and rational thought is frequently the key to unpacking the mystery.

The PAIR of 7s and the 'PEAR' of Treys are certainly more likely to generate the best Crib Values, and so how can this TRUTH help us to see that Toss (T J) is actually superior today?! Say What!?

PAIRS 'contain' points, and yet they are not too efficient at 'generating additional' points when placed into our Crib.

PAIRS like the 7 Cards only get "help" from either an 8 Card or from "like" Cards ... such as other 7 Cards. Treys only get "help" from either a 9 Card or from "like" cards as well ... from other Treys.

And since we're already holding HALF of the Treys and HALF of the 7 Cards, this "help from 'like' cards" is statistically unlikely to come.

It is therefore the "touching" cards (T J) which contain the most relative potential for our Crib: they start at ZERO, but then add points when combined with 18 Cards (5555, 9999, TTT, JJJ, QQQQ), cards either discarded by Pone or available from the Cut.

The best overall SYNERGY here is to leave the two PAIRS together in our Hand, where either a Deuce or a 5 Card Cut can be of significant help, and then the two "touching" cards (T J) can receive and generate maximum potential leverage in our Crib. That QUEEN Cut is ideal!
JQT says: And it almost goes without saying that Keep (3 3 7 7) is bound to be our best pegging arrangement today as well. I'll choose a Trey response to a Trey, a 5 Card, a 6 Card, or a 9 Card Lead; all other leads, I'll respond with a 7 Card.
james500 says: Good morning John, hope life's treating you well. Not defending my "odd man out" choice today, which may yet be proved second best, but a point in regard the comparison between the potential help for 7-7 vs T-J. Were Pone to discard randomly then there would be, as you say, many fewer cards to help the pair, (AAAA,77,8888 = 10) opposed to the 18 you list for 10-J. Pone doesn't discard randomly though, and of those 18 cards, will be very reluctant to throw a 5 or Jack, leaving just 11 cards that we could reasonably expect to receive which have synergy with 10-J. Still more than the ten for 7-7, but only just. I would also suggest that since we were dealt no eights, the chance that Pone has one is slightly higher than average, while since we have two sevens and a 10, the chance that Pone will have either 7-8 or 8-9-10 is reduced, leading them to be more likely to discard this 8 card, giving us a sound reason to discard speculatively with 7-7? Thanks in advance for any feedback.
JQT says: Toss (7 7) will indeed produce the greatest Crib, but I fear the average increase in Crib Value is too far offset by what it costs us in the Hand and the Pegging if we split up the two pairs. Also, one of the few helpful Cuts for Keep (3 3 T J) is a Deuce, and yet if we Keep (3 3 7 7), a Deuce Cut is just ONE OF MANY very helpful Cuts. I think Toss (7 7) therefore earns itself a solid Second Place, and I prefer Toss (T J) for reasons expressed above. It's a very tight race in the voting so far!
JQT says: Good rhetoric today, James (and many others). As I have said many times, differ with Halscrib at your peril! I don't think it matters a whole lot here, but it may matter, and so in the final analysis, Toss (7 7) may indeed be best by a skosh. I'll not argue against it! But maybe I'll argue better tomorrow!
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Friday 3:21 AM
This was my original pick, tossing T-J and holding the three's and sevens for a slightly higher combined value than tossing 7-7 to my crib. JQT makes a good case for this choice.
I was wobbling as Das stated that 7-7 to our crib had the potential for 8 points or more 27% (?) of the time, and 12 points or more 15% (?) of the time. I will check these figures to be sure of my figures.
Rosemarie44 says: Sorry, "Das" my spell checker in action! Should be Ras.
Rosemarie44 says: Sorry, "Das" my spell checker in action! Should be Ras.
dec
6357 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Friday 3:37 AM
I am thinking about a cut card here. Five would be the best but a two,three,seven or eight adds also. A face card cut does give hope to the crib. So lets lead a seven maybe parlay the threes in pegging and hope for a sizable crib here. dec
dec says: I meant seven as a response play and also an ace cut adds. dec
james500
3922 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Friday 4:39 AM
Pone is very unlikely to discard a 5 under most circumstances; with a pair of sevens known to be out of circulation though, they may have no use for an 8...

I await William Jaitch's critique of this, or of American social policy, with baited breath.
Guest says: Let's not encourage him, james.
BigFoot Bob
624 votes

Joined: April 2016
 
 
 
Friday 4:41 AM
Three or seven pairs are good tosses to my crib and only bettered by 5-5 but today having only four points in my hand I will donate the T-J thinking it may be the best of both hands.
glmccuskey
4100 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Friday 5:01 AM
This should peg more defensively and with my opponent at 87 I could get anything in my crib as they fight to get into 4th street position.
Gougie00
5729 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Friday 6:05 AM
At this point, I need a huge crib. Lets hope the pone tried to sneak in a 89 or A7.

Not crazy about 3377 as a pegger either.
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Friday 8:38 AM
Pegs better. Nor any 10 or Jack to be trapped. Above all we don't want pone to get to 96.
Inushtuk1
1486 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Friday 9:34 AM
Both camps make very good arguments. I’d much prefer to keep the two pairs at 0*-0. But we’re running out of race track. We could really use a big crib now, while still pegging defensively to keep Pone from getting to 96. Maybe this way pegs *slightly* better, with us retaining three different ranks as opposed to two. Could be wrong about that.

I’ll reply with a suited 3 on all leads but the K, 5, 4, and 2. On the K lead I will play my 10. On the 5, 4, and 2 I will dump my J. Never mind waiting until the count has reached 12 or higher. Note that the suited 3 is fairly safe on an A lead. The A lead more likely came from A-4-5-6, or similar, and our X-card reply gives up an easy (15-2). That’s more likely than Pone scouting the 3 card run.
HalscribCLX
5316 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Friday 3:49 PM
At 87*-87 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W2 %___W3 %
3-3-7-7___6.09+(-2.17)+4.51=8.43____4.0____28.4
3-3-10-J__4.43+(-2.24)+6.01=8.20____5.1____30.0
7-7-10-J__4.09+(-2.30)+5.86=7.65____3.3____27.4

Defense______L2 %___L3 %
3-3-7-7_____10.3____53.0
3-3-10-J_____9.4____50.4
7-7-10-J____10.2____53.3

3-3-7-7 is best for expected averages by 0.23pt but 3-3-10-J is slightly best for Win %s and Loss %s so in this critical board position I'll select 7-7 to discard.

After the Q cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Ras2829
5153 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Friday 4:28 PM
This hand is from a live game. After the game ran a query on Cribbage Prof and noted that the higher combined values went with the 3-3-7-7. In the game, as here today, RAS chose 7-7 to discard thinking at 87, better go for a crib score. So what do the discarding profiles look like for the two leading choices of this day? The 7-7 averages 5.873 ((1,372) 13/91, scores two points 22.011%, scores 3-7 34.914, scores 8-11 27.259%,adn tallies 12 or more 15.816%. That 7-7 does produce a lot of two point cribs, nearly 1/4. It scores 12 or more though about 1/6. So I went for the possible large crib score. The 10-J averages 4.758 (1,459)32/91, scores 2 or less points 28.649%, tallies 3-7 43.799, scores 8-11 25.976%, and reaches 12 or more 1.576%. So the 7-7 is 10x as likely to produce 12 or more to own crib even though holding 3-3-7-7 has a slight edge in combined value and defensive pegging. You can see most of this in HalscribCLX analysis directly above.
Ras2829 says: Want to limit opponent movement down the board, so will play off the lead although would pair a trey if led. See Inushtuk1's work above. That covers it for me. Show a lot of love/respect for our veterans and the family members left behind. Those serving today have a tough assignment as in a prolonged war such as Afghanistan and a small Armed Force, some have had to put their lives on the line 3-4 times in active combat roles. It seems we've been there for more than 15 years. Support parades in your communities. Thanks so much for giving so freely so that we can live more freely. My service to the country is long ago (United States Marine Corps 1958-1964). My honor to serve and "Semper Fidelis".
JQT says: Hello Sir RAS: While we occasionally 'agree to disagree' on discarding selections such as we did today (after all, what is one quarter of a point among friends?!), we completely 'agree-to-agree' on the superb service given by our numerous VETERANS. I am always looking at new ways to help those in my local community, and if anyone has any IDEAS, I am always open to suggestions. Just post them on this site and/or to me directly and I shall see them and act accordingly. Meanwhile, THANK YOU VETERANS.
Guest says: JQT - I served in the Navy for 25 years. While I appreciate people thanking me for my service, "service" comes in many different forms. You don't have to be in the military to "serve". You can tutor those who need it, visit the sick, elderly or lonely, work in a soup kitchen, etc. etc. I'm sure there are many that visit this site that do all of those things and more. And for that let me say, "THANK YOU FOR YOUR SERVICE".
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: You have stated this so well & you deserve the admiration that so many show towards you. Thank you for your lengthy service to our country, the appeal to others to find ways to contribute in their communities, and your sincere acknowledgment and appreciation to those who do.
Coeurdelion
5593 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Friday 6:50 PM
I think it must be between 3-3-7-7 (10-J), 3-3-10-J (7-7) and 7-7-10-J (3-3):

3-3-7-7: 4pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.61) = 8¾pts

3-3-10-J: 2pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.92) = 7¾pts

7-7-10-J: 2pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.94) = 7¾pts

Potential:

3-3-7-7: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 33, 5555, 77, 8888, 9999 = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 8/12pts with 2222, 5555, 77, 8888 = 14 cuts.

3-3-10-J: Improves with 2222, 33, 5555, 9999, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ
= 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 6/7/10pts with 2222, 33, 5555, 9999 = 14 cuts. Plus 12 diamonds for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt

7-7-10-J: Improves with AAAA, 5555, 77, 8888, 9999, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ = 28 cuts = 60.9% up to 6pts with 5555, 77, 8888 = 10 cuts. Plus 12 diamonds for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt

Pegging:

I think 3-3-7-7 and 3-3-10-J will peg best.

Position:

We're short of position and Pone only needs 9pts to reach par-hole. I'll play Defensively to try to keep them short.

Summary:

3-3-7-7 has the best starting value by 1pt over the other two and together with 3-3-10-J it has 14 cuts for a good improvement for the hand. 3-3-10-J also has the benefit of his nob and it should peg well. I tend toward the 7-7 discard.