November 10, 2017
*** This hand was suggested by ras2829
|Total votes: 168|
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Joined: October 2008
Friday 3:01 AM
Very often in Cribbage, the clues that can help us to decode a particular hand are visible and yet mysteriously hidden within the hand itself.
And both logic and rational thought is frequently the key to unpacking the mystery.
The PAIR of 7s and the 'PEAR' of Treys are certainly more likely to generate the best Crib Values, and so how can this TRUTH help us to see that Toss (T J) is actually superior today?! Say What!?
PAIRS 'contain' points, and yet they are not too efficient at 'generating additional' points when placed into our Crib.
PAIRS like the 7 Cards only get "help" from either an 8 Card or from "like" Cards ... such as other 7 Cards. Treys only get "help" from either a 9 Card or from "like" cards as well ... from other Treys.
And since we're already holding HALF of the Treys and HALF of the 7 Cards, this "help from 'like' cards" is statistically unlikely to come.
It is therefore the "touching" cards (T J) which contain the most relative potential for our Crib: they start at ZERO, but then add points when combined with 18 Cards (5555, 9999, TTT, JJJ, QQQQ), cards either discarded by Pone or available from the Cut.
The best overall SYNERGY here is to leave the two PAIRS together in our Hand, where either a Deuce or a 5 Card Cut can be of significant help, and then the two "touching" cards (T J) can receive and generate maximum potential leverage in our Crib. That QUEEN Cut is ideal!
Joined: March 2016
Friday 3:21 AM
This was my original pick, tossing T-J and holding the three's and sevens for a slightly higher combined value than tossing 7-7 to my crib. JQT makes a good case for this choice.
I was wobbling as Das stated that 7-7 to our crib had the potential for 8 points or more 27% (?) of the time, and 12 points or more 15% (?) of the time. I will check these figures to be sure of my figures.
Joined: April 2008
Friday 3:37 AM
I am thinking about a cut card here. Five would be the best but a two,three,seven or eight adds also. A face card cut does give hope to the crib. So lets lead a seven maybe parlay the threes in pegging and hope for a sizable crib here. dec
Joined: June 2013
Friday 4:39 AM
Pone is very unlikely to discard a 5 under most circumstances; with a pair of sevens known to be out of circulation though, they may have no use for an 8...
I await William Jaitch's critique of this, or of American social policy, with baited breath.
Joined: April 2016
Friday 4:41 AM
Three or seven pairs are good tosses to my crib and only bettered by 5-5 but today having only four points in my hand I will donate the T-J thinking it may be the best of both hands.
Joined: April 2011
Friday 5:01 AM
This should peg more defensively and with my opponent at 87 I could get anything in my crib as they fight to get into 4th street position.
Joined: March 2008
Friday 6:05 AM
At this point, I need a huge crib. Lets hope the pone tried to sneak in a 89 or A7.
Not crazy about 3377 as a pegger either.
Joined: August 2009
Friday 8:38 AM
Pegs better. Nor any 10 or Jack to be trapped. Above all we don't want pone to get to 96.
Joined: July 2016
Friday 9:34 AM
Both camps make very good arguments. I’d much prefer to keep the two pairs at 0*-0. But we’re running out of race track. We could really use a big crib now, while still pegging defensively to keep Pone from getting to 96. Maybe this way pegs *slightly* better, with us retaining three different ranks as opposed to two. Could be wrong about that.
I’ll reply with a suited 3 on all leads but the K, 5, 4, and 2. On the K lead I will play my 10. On the 5, 4, and 2 I will dump my J. Never mind waiting until the count has reached 12 or higher. Note that the suited 3 is fairly safe on an A lead. The A lead more likely came from A-4-5-6, or similar, and our X-card reply gives up an easy (15-2). That’s more likely than Pone scouting the 3 card run.
Joined: February 2008
Friday 3:49 PM
At 87*-87 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W2 %___W3 %
Defense______L2 %___L3 %
3-3-7-7 is best for expected averages by 0.23pt but 3-3-10-J is slightly best for Win %s and Loss %s so in this critical board position I'll select 7-7 to discard.
After the Q cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Joined: November 2008
Friday 4:28 PM
This hand is from a live game. After the game ran a query on Cribbage Prof and noted that the higher combined values went with the 3-3-7-7. In the game, as here today, RAS chose 7-7 to discard thinking at 87, better go for a crib score. So what do the discarding profiles look like for the two leading choices of this day? The 7-7 averages 5.873 ((1,372) 13/91, scores two points 22.011%, scores 3-7 34.914, scores 8-11 27.259%,adn tallies 12 or more 15.816%. That 7-7 does produce a lot of two point cribs, nearly 1/4. It scores 12 or more though about 1/6. So I went for the possible large crib score. The 10-J averages 4.758 (1,459)32/91, scores 2 or less points 28.649%, tallies 3-7 43.799, scores 8-11 25.976%, and reaches 12 or more 1.576%. So the 7-7 is 10x as likely to produce 12 or more to own crib even though holding 3-3-7-7 has a slight edge in combined value and defensive pegging. You can see most of this in HalscribCLX analysis directly above.
Joined: October 2007
Friday 6:50 PM
I think it must be between 3-3-7-7 (10-J), 3-3-10-J (7-7) and 7-7-10-J (3-3):
3-3-7-7: 4pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.61) = 8¾pts
3-3-10-J: 2pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.92) = 7¾pts
7-7-10-J: 2pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.94) = 7¾pts
3-3-7-7: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 33, 5555, 77, 8888, 9999 = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 8/12pts with 2222, 5555, 77, 8888 = 14 cuts.
3-3-10-J: Improves with 2222, 33, 5555, 9999, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ
= 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 6/7/10pts with 2222, 33, 5555, 9999 = 14 cuts. Plus 12 diamonds for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt
7-7-10-J: Improves with AAAA, 5555, 77, 8888, 9999, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ = 28 cuts = 60.9% up to 6pts with 5555, 77, 8888 = 10 cuts. Plus 12 diamonds for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt
I think 3-3-7-7 and 3-3-10-J will peg best.
We're short of position and Pone only needs 9pts to reach par-hole. I'll play Defensively to try to keep them short.
3-3-7-7 has the best starting value by 1pt over the other two and together with 3-3-10-J it has 14 cuts for a good improvement for the hand. 3-3-10-J also has the benefit of his nob and it should peg well. I tend toward the 7-7 discard.