November 11, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)
118-118*  ?
36%
26%
16%
4%
3%
2%
2%
2%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 138
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:02 AM
Andy dangles us in a precarious position on this VETERANS DAY, just Three Holes Out as Pone!

This is a U.S.A. Holiday, although "Eleven-Eleven" still reverberates with significance throughout the Entire World.

Our first choice or decision, or at least our first thought or concept, is whether we should attempt to peg out, or whether we might be better off trying to retain sufficient points and then defend and use First Hand Show to win.

I say "thought or concept" as opposed to "choice or decision" because we may not have a choice! If a Jack is Cut, and it WILL occur precisely 4 DIV 46 equals 0.087 or about 9% of the time (since we were not dealt any Jacks), then we MUST try to peg out.

And even if we don't choose to peg out initially, as long as any Dealer sitting at Hole 118 scores on our first card played, that Dealer is guaranteed to peg out (if we don't peg out FIRST), since Dealer always gets an additional Point for Last.

With all this stacked against us, my strategy will primarily be to retain cards that I feel could help us peg out, with an eye on defensive pegging as well.

In this capacity, I believe we do have a few good choices here, such as Keep (A 5 6 8), Keep (A 5 6 7), or Keep (A 6 7 8). Note we get enough points after ANY Cut, unlike Keep (A 5 7 8), where a 4 Card Cut might leave us "high and dry" (don't be THAT guy!).

In the end, I think it's probably a "toss up" between Keep (A 5 6 8) and Keep (A 5 6 7), and I'll choose the former and thus I'll Toss (7 T) today. It's important to note that while the Ace is the safest LEAD, doing this would probably HARM our overall chances of pegging out. Therefore, I'll lead the 8 Card and attempt, against all odds, to beat the Dealer to Hole 121.
JQT says: The Ace is definitely the safest lead card, but the goal here is to score Three Points before the Dealer can achieve the same. And the process of pegging involves the playing of all four cards, and not just the first card. When we hold just one low-ranking card along with nothing lower than a 5 Card as Pone, there is a big danger of getting "trapped" at a Count of Twenty-Seven or greater. While the 'lone' Ace can indeed be a liability, at the score given, it's probably as much an asset for us as well. The Ace can be used both offensively and defensively, thus it is a very versatile card. If we lead the Ace, its value is diminished to that of being purely defensive, and we may be squandering its real value.
JQT says: Today, I decided to Keep (A 5 6 8), as opposed to Keep (A 5 6 7), a choice made below in a posting by orvani. Within that posting by orvani, I've much discussed a pegging scenario using cards that I never chose to begin with, so what gives? I found that choice of Keep (A 5 6 7) both interesting and instructive, and 'Cribbage Endgame Analysis' has been the real focus of my interest in Cribbage over the bulk of my life. But what of all this analysis on what may, according to me at least, be the "wrong" hand?! In LIFE as in Cribbage, discard decisions are "forever," in that once we make them, we are 'wedded' to the hands we chose. For better or worse, we must view and play the hands we have chosen and not attempt to be doing the "What If?" scenario during the pegging. This ability of "letting go of the past" really serves us well in Cribbage, and it's one of the many things that I've painstakingly learned in the arena of investing that "translates" virtually seamlessly into the realm of Cribbage. Play the cards that you have chosen without regret and do so with all of your ability! Accept any mistakes and move on. There is ALWAYS a chance to play correctly, even if we may have chosen the 'wrong' hand to begin with! Once we commit to a specific set of cards, there's to be no looking back. This perhaps goes beyond Cribbage, but I also very much like coach John Wooden's advice: "Do not let what you cannot do interfere with what you can do."
james500
3923 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Saturday 3:09 AM
I'll lead the 7 and hope Dealer can score 15/2. If they pair me, my Ace will provide for a nervy finish with the scores tied at 120.
glmccuskey
4101 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Saturday 3:11 AM
Agree with JQT.
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:28 AM
In this situation I would haved liked to see A-6-8-9 as my pegging hand so assuming I am playing a good player and luck involved this is my keep.. lead the eight and hope for a two response or hope for the ace play probably on third round for three. dec
Gougie00
5730 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 6:08 AM
This close to 121, the ace is a liability. The dealer wants to peg out and I will play it that way. Lead the 7, I think. If its paired then I'm sunk. And so it goes.
jmath714
1299 votes

Joined: January 2012
 
 
 
Saturday 6:38 AM
I’m genuinely unsure whether to attempt to peg out or count out here. My first thought was to try to fade my opponent counting out since I don’t have a pair to lead from.

In this spot I’ll lead the ace but I’m curious of the stats on how often you can count out from here vs how often you can peg out.
bbaer1
3692 votes

Joined: February 2011
 
 
 
Saturday 7:02 AM
I'll lead the seven from this. If dealer pairs me I have a reply. Doubt that (s)he'll fifteen me as they won't want to get into a pegging run scenario.
orvani
328 votes

Joined: June 2011
 
 
 
Saturday 7:45 AM
I vote for A-5-6-7 and lead 7 if opponent plays 8 for 15-2 I play the 6 Apppooff.... End or the game If he answer the 7 over my 7 and get pair for 2 I plays the Ace for 15-2 and he must be careful with the cards he plays because I still have middle cards that can bring me closer to 30 for GO or 31-2.
JQT says: A Bonus Pegging Puzzle for all of you A-5-6-7 aficionados: Okay, let's say we Keep (A 5 6 7) and the Cut is a 7 Card. We decide to lead our 7 Card and Dealer replies with an Ace, so we PAIR it (9-2) for a Count of Nine. Now Dealer unloads a 9 Card to double the Count to Eighteen. Question: Do we then play our 5 Card or our 6 Card? Just when we thought Cribbage was easy! ; - )
Inushtuk1 says: Hi JQT. FYI: I never thought cribbage *was* easy. ; - ). Dealer has shown me an A, and a 9. He/she is equally likely to have a 5 or 6 in their hand. Maybe both. In which case we are toast anyway. But if Dealer *doesn’t* have a 5, mine could be trapped into giving up 3 pegs. So I’ll unload it now and play defense here. But on the *other* hand the 6 bumps the count up a little higher increasing my chances of getting the GO. A real toughie JQT, but I’ll play my 5. Thanks for ruining my day. ; - ) How about we avoid this headache by playing our *6* on his Ace. There are only two live Aces left. If Dealer does have one for (15-2), *now* we pair that Ace for (16-2). The score is now 120-120*. Now the Dealer is in a bit of a bind. If s/he bumps the count to (26) the game is ours. And if s/he makes it (25), the game is ours unless s/he has the case Ace. In which case they are just too darn lucky anyway. BTW: Thanks to all vets everywhere for their service.
JQT says: There is initially equal high bias for Dealer to be holding both a 5 Card and a 6 Card, but in my scenario, at a Count of Nine, Dealer did NOT play a 6 Card for (15=2). Does this affect your decision? If we escape PAIRING of our second-to-last card, we probably minimally give up a "go" and Last Card: we could WIN this if our final two cards are NOT PAIRED and if our Last Card is also NOT Fifteen-Twoed.
JQT says: While I have long suggested that we should not always lead our *safest* card at such a score, when it comes to playing our second-to-last card, I will usually adopt the "Play It Safe(est)" strategy, and here, we already have good reason for Dealer to NOT be holding a 6 card. Back when the Count was Nine, if the Dealer had a 6 Card, it probably would have been played for (15=2). Since this did NOT happen, we might assume the Dealer HAS NO 6 CARDS. Therefore, if we play our 6 Card, it's *probably* safe, right? I think so. But at this juncture, the score is (120-118*), and we still need another point! And it appears we shall NOT be getting any more points during the pegging! Therefore, not unlike at the beginning of this puzzle, we need to prevent the Dealer from pegging Three Holes. If we suspect that the Dealer has no 6 Card, might it be worth "saving" our 6 Card for our Last Card? I think NOT: I think we should unload the ostensibly "safer" 6 Card and do so NOW. But it's very complicated!
JQT says: Without attempting to further suggest an answer to the pegging conundrum that I supplied, let's just list a few bits of information we might have gleaned from this puzzle: A 7 Card was Cut, and we begin with (A 5 6 7) and led a 7 card which was NOT then PAIRED, so let's give two strikes against the Dealer holding a 7 Card. And we can surmise all of this before we even begin to examine what the Dealer's First Response actually is! An Ace was played by the Dealer, and we're going to PAIR it for certain, because with two cards remaining and three points needed to WIN, we've simply got to get going! Since two Aces are now accounted for, let's give two strikes against the Dealer holding any more Aces. Furthermore, since the Dealer could have probably safely brought the Count over Fifteen with ANY Ten Card or "X" and since the Dealer did NOT do so, let's give one strike against the Dealer holding any X Cards. This may or may not be true: remember, just like us, the Dealer is looking to score Three Points here ANY WAY POSSIBLE! But the Ten Cards are "low bias" to begin with, so one strike is probably reasonable. After we PAIR the Dealer's Ace, our analysis is rewarded since the Dealer does not TRIPLE the Ace and WIN, so let's now give three strikes against the Dealer holding any Aces whatsoever. We bring the Count up to Nine with our Ace, and Dealer replies with a 9 Card, therefore let's give one strike against the Dealer holding any 6 Cards. Look how much we can surmise after just seeing the Cut and half of Dealer's Hand - the first two cards!
Inushtuk1 says: Wow! Thanks monsieur cribbage.
james500 says: Marvelous analysis John, thank you. As soon as "Learn to play cribbage the JQT way" becomes available in book shops, I'll definitely get myself a copy.
JQT says: I hope my "thinking out loud" about the nuances of the pegging subtleties of this position is not an intrusion, and that it offers some insight for newer players to examine how we may apply specific odds or "weights" to whether an opponent may or may not be holding specific cards. I've compiled numerous 'Endgame Pegging Battles' over my last few decades of play, and my goal was to compile these into a book one day. Alas, I may lack the health and the energy to bring this task to fruition. Note that I did not mention the obvious: we should also give one strike against both an 8 Card and a Ten Card since we discarded these. Never forget what you discard! Also important to note here when using my "Baseball Analogy" of course is that once a "winning" card is NOT played, "three strikes" means our opponent definitely does NOT hold the considered card. However; even with two strikes against, a card considered with such low bias may still appear! In Cribbage, it's more often that probability governs a situation as opposed to certainty, but not-to-worry, as probability is usually rewarded in the long run!
spin121
299 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 8:53 AM
Have to keep the ace for my lead card. And dealer just might pop a 7 on it.
spin121 says: I can see leading the 7 from this since we need 3 holes to win. Dealer is going to be desperate to peg out but will probably know I am fishing for him to play an 8 for 15-2. I almost always like getting first blood when it's this close so I'll stick with my ace lead.
cribbagepogo
3251 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Saturday 1:16 PM
No one has it correct yet. I will lead the 10, if dealer takes 15- I will take 20-2 and hope he has another 10 card. You wouldn't hold another 10 unless that is all you were dealt but if dealer 26 I have the ace.
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Saturday 1:59 PM
We need to stop Dealer pegging 3pts and peg/hold 3pts ourselves. I think A-6-7-8 fits the bill quite well.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 2:07 PM
At 118-118* playing an Offense strategy the Loss %s and Hold Enough %s are:

Offense____Loss %s____Hold Out %s
6-7-8-10___27.3________100.0
A-7-8-10___29.5_________95.4
A-6-7-8____33.0________100.0
A-6-8-10___33.9_________95.8
5-7-8-10___34.0________100.0
5-6-8-10___39.3_________99.8
5-6-7-10___41.8________100.0

6-7-8-10 is lowest for Dealer's Chance's of Winning and also is guaranteed to hold enough to go out. So I'll select A-5 to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll lead the 6 and play Defense:

Lead__________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
6___________________(-1.23)
10__________________(-1.25)
7___________________(-1.26)
8___________________(-1.29)
JQT says: I'm not buying it today. Trying to survive the pegging assumes we JUST GIVE UP after a Jack Cut, thus accepting a loss 9% of the time. Given we escape the Jack Cut, let's just go down ONE of many perilous avenues: After Keep (6 7 8 T), if the Dealer can score on the 6 Card Lead (666, 999), Pone is SUNK. Any "X" Card response to the 6 Card Lead other than a Ten (JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK) also appears doomed. Also, those pegging values listed at the end would *seem* to be Dealer NET scores; all we are interested in today are ABSOLUTE pegging scores!
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: Think you are right as to the dealer peg scores being net scores as think loss % for non-dealer are much higher than shown with all possible retentions. Would think dealer peg outs which would result in loss for non-dealer are 50% or better for any hand retained by non-dealer.
Guest says: I want my money back!
Ras2829
5154 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 2:37 PM
My experience suggests that to hold the better pegging cards here, dealer will win. So agree with HalscribCLX choice today. These are the four least likely to give up pegs. If RAS thought needed to peg three before dealer did so, would have held A-5-6-8. After seeing the 9 on the deck will lead the six. Would like to drop the 8 as second card played putting some space between the remaining 7-10. The 10 should be reasonably safe as dealer will seldom retain a X-pointer if having other cards available and discarded a five spot.
The_Bee_Mann
306 votes

Joined: November 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 6:58 PM
I just guessed. I liked keeping the A, 5,6 and X. Since the dealer is also keeping pegging cards, it is hard to second the opponents hand,
The_Bee_Mann says: second guess