November 11, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)
118-118*  ?
36%
26%
16%
4%
3%
2%
2%
2%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 138

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JQT
2095 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Saturday 3:02 AM
Andy dangles us in a precarious position on this VETERANS DAY, just Three Holes Out as Pone!

This is a U.S.A. Holiday, although "Eleven-Eleven" still reverberates with significance throughout the Entire World.

Our first choice or decision, or at least our first thought or concept, is whether we should attempt to peg out, or whether we might be better off trying to retain sufficient points and then defend and use First Hand Show to win.

I say "thought or concept" as opposed to "choice or decision" because we may not have a choice! If a Jack is Cut, and it WILL occur precisely 4 DIV 46 equals 0.087 or about 9% of the time (since we were not dealt any Jacks), then we MUST try to peg out.

And even if we don't choose to peg out initially, as long as any Dealer sitting at Hole 118 scores on our first card played, that Dealer is guaranteed to peg out (if we don't peg out FIRST), since Dealer always gets an additional Point for Last.

With all this stacked against us, my strategy will primarily be to retain cards that I feel could help us peg out, with an eye on defensive pegging as well.

In this capacity, I believe we do have a few good choices here, such as Keep (A 5 6 8), Keep (A 5 6 7), or Keep (A 6 7 8). Note we get enough points after ANY Cut, unlike Keep (A 5 7 8), where a 4 Card Cut might leave us "high and dry" (don't be THAT guy!).

In the end, I think it's probably a "toss up" between Keep (A 5 6 8) and Keep (A 5 6 7), and I'll choose the former and thus I'll Toss (7 T) today. It's important to note that while the Ace is the safest LEAD, doing this would probably HARM our overall chances of pegging out. Therefore, I'll lead the 8 Card and attempt, against all odds, to beat the Dealer to Hole 121.
Reply
james500
1589 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Saturday 3:09 AM
I'll lead the 7 and hope Dealer can score 15/2. If they pair me, my Ace will provide for a nervy finish with the scores tied at 120.
Reply
glmccuskey
2460 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Saturday 3:11 AM
Agree with JQT.
Reply
dec
3813 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Saturday 3:28 AM
In this situation I would haved liked to see A-6-8-9 as my pegging hand so assuming I am playing a good player and luck involved this is my keep.. lead the eight and hope for a two response or hope for the ace play probably on third round for three. dec
Reply
Gougie00
3326 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Saturday 6:08 AM
This close to 121, the ace is a liability. The dealer wants to peg out and I will play it that way. Lead the 7, I think. If its paired then I'm sunk. And so it goes.
Reply
jmath714
519 votes

Joined: January 2012

   
Saturday 6:38 AM
Iím genuinely unsure whether to attempt to peg out or count out here. My first thought was to try to fade my opponent counting out since I donít have a pair to lead from.

In this spot Iíll lead the ace but Iím curious of the stats on how often you can count out from here vs how often you can peg out.
Reply
bbaer1
2164 votes

Joined: February 2011

   
Saturday 7:02 AM
I'll lead the seven from this. If dealer pairs me I have a reply. Doubt that (s)he'll fifteen me as they won't want to get into a pegging run scenario.
Reply
orvani
298 votes

Joined: June 2011

   
Saturday 7:45 AM
I vote for A-5-6-7 and lead 7 if opponent plays 8 for 15-2 I play the 6 Apppooff.... End or the game If he answer the 7 over my 7 and get pair for 2 I plays the Ace for 15-2 and he must be careful with the cards he plays because I still have middle cards that can bring me closer to 30 for GO or 31-2.
Reply
spin121
211 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Saturday 8:53 AM
Have to keep the ace for my lead card. And dealer just might pop a 7 on it.
Reply
cribbagepogo
2410 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Saturday 1:16 PM
No one has it correct yet. I will lead the 10, if dealer takes 15- I will take 20-2 and hope he has another 10 card. You wouldn't hold another 10 unless that is all you were dealt but if dealer 26 I have the ace.
Reply
Coeurdelion
3282 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Saturday 1:59 PM
We need to stop Dealer pegging 3pts and peg/hold 3pts ourselves. I think A-6-7-8 fits the bill quite well.
Reply
HalscribCLX
3032 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Saturday 2:07 PM
At 118-118* playing an Offense strategy the Loss %s and Hold Enough %s are:

Offense____Loss %s____Hold Out %s
6-7-8-10___27.3________100.0
A-7-8-10___29.5_________95.4
A-6-7-8____33.0________100.0
A-6-8-10___33.9_________95.8
5-7-8-10___34.0________100.0
5-6-8-10___39.3_________99.8
5-6-7-10___41.8________100.0

6-7-8-10 is lowest for Dealer's Chance's of Winning and also is guaranteed to hold enough to go out. So I'll select A-5 to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll lead the 6 and play Defense:

Lead__________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
6___________________(-1.23)
10__________________(-1.25)
7___________________(-1.26)
8___________________(-1.29)
Reply
Ras2829
2818 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Saturday 2:37 PM
My experience suggests that to hold the better pegging cards here, dealer will win. So agree with HalscribCLX choice today. These are the four least likely to give up pegs. If RAS thought needed to peg three before dealer did so, would have held A-5-6-8. After seeing the 9 on the deck will lead the six. Would like to drop the 8 as second card played putting some space between the remaining 7-10. The 10 should be reasonably safe as dealer will seldom retain a X-pointer if having other cards available and discarded a five spot.
Reply
The_Bee_Mann
293 votes

Joined: November 2016

   
Saturday 6:58 PM
I just guessed. I liked keeping the A, 5,6 and X. Since the dealer is also keeping pegging cards, it is hard to second the opponents hand,
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