November 13, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)
95-91*  ?
46%
20%
17%
3%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
Total votes: 179
Jazzselke
2586 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Monday 3:09 AM
In complete defensive posture, 39 best choice IMO as there is negative delta with us holding a 6 and another 9.
Guest says: Fascinating. The winning choice right now, at 43% is keeping the 5-6-9-9, yet every comment here, save one, is for a defensive position, forcing a breakup of the 669. I chose offence too, but I will give the Rule of 26 comment below some consideration. --Dwight
Guest says: I'm on this site to learn what "not" to do, and since the Jazzman is one of my mentors, I just learned something. I'm one who kept 5-6-9-9 to try to push my score up. Now I know better, and why! S :)
spin121
299 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Monday 3:22 AM
I hate this puzzle and I love this puzzle
All these good cards and I can't keep them. But this is the kind thing that happens in cribbage A LOT. Leading my 3. Defense
spin121 says: And hopefully dealer doesn't plop a 7 on my 3 lead.
spin121 says: And hopefully dealer doesn't plop a 7 on my 3 lead.
spin121 says: After the 4 cut I have 8 pts. and want at least 2 more. Dealer does have at least 2 pts in crib based on what I tossed, but if dealer's first card doesn't seem to match up with the 4 cut will take some chances and get a little greedy with peg pts.
spin121 says: After the 4 cut I have 8 pts. and want at least 2 more. Dealer does have at least 2 pts in crib based on what I tossed, but if dealer's first card doesn't seem to match up with the 4 cut will take some chances and get a little greedy with peg pts.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi spin121. Why can’t you be happy dealing at 103?
Inushtuk1 says: Hi spin121. Why can’t you be happy dealing at 103?
Guest says: My thinking was if I don't go out as dealer next deal it could come down to a pegging War where are opponent is the dealer with the advantage. He's four holes short right now so that gives me a little wiggle room to get just a little greedy if his hand looks like it might be short. spin
Guest says: My thinking was if I don't go out as dealer next deal it could come down to a pegging War where are opponent is the dealer with the advantage. He's four holes short right now so that gives me a little wiggle room to get just a little greedy if his hand looks like it might be short. spin
Guest says: Our* opponent. I'm using my smartphone talk feature because I can't stand typing long messages on it. hence the error.
Guest says: Our* opponent. I'm using my smartphone talk feature because I can't stand typing long messages on it. hence the error.
Guest says: spin
Guest says: spin
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Monday 3:24 AM
Defense for me also as we are at par alread as pone.
Rosemarie44 says: Toss 2-9 is valued at 4.57 pts to opponent, and 3-9 is valued at 5.18 pts.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Monday 4:18 AM
Must try to defend, and I'll probably lead the 6 Card, since I was dealt two 9 Cards, and this breaks up the hand nicely.
JQT says: Why hold the Deuce instead of the Trey? Excellent question! Since we know the whereabouts of two of the four 9 Cards, I believe this "Negative Delta" shall reduce the value of the Trey in our Opponent's Crib accordingly. Furthermore, the 2-5-9 combination forms a three-card "Sweet Sixteen," which is frequently very useful during the pegging against the likes of 5-X-X-X or 5-5-X-X in forming a (31-2) for us as Pone. Note however that I should have led from one of the cards in this combo in order to exploit it! Thus maybe I'll start with the 9 Card instead (leading the ostensibly safer Deuce may 'trap' us as hinted at above by spin121).
james500
3924 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Monday 4:27 AM
Tempting to keep 6-9-9-?, but not sure it's worth the risk at these positions. Someone with the charts will have to tell me whether 2-5 tends to be more dangerous than 3-9.

Every cut bar a 3 will help me, (4+ points in the crib though), and I have a 16 with 2-5-9.

2(2)-5(7)-9(16)-X(26)-5(31/2).
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Monday 4:38 AM
A stingy discard. Third best potential for average in main hand with any cut but a three adding to add. Another element the eleven count on hand. I will lead the two and seperate the five and the six on any potential pegging damage. Its like football all three elements to a team strat offense, defense and special teams ( pegging ). Go Pats!. dec
glmccuskey
4102 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Monday 4:43 AM
Only a 2 or 8 doesn’t get us back to at least four points. Not going to throw 2-3 or the 5 in this spot. I’ll lead the three.
BigFoot Bob
624 votes

Joined: April 2016
 
 
 
Monday 5:05 AM
Keep my six and nines. The 2-3 is troubling but I don't really want to send the five over the board either. I have to chance the 2-3 toss to have a chance to win.
Guest says: You would be better off with 2-5 though neither is a viable option here.
BigFoot Bob says: Keeping the 2-5 mean sacraficing four points.
BigFoot Bob says: My humble game says lets get down the road. If the pone beats me he has to earn it with a correct toss.
Rosemarie44 says: Hi BigFoot Bob: Tossing 2-3 to opponent is worth 7.52 points and tossing 2-5 is worth 5.79 points. These statistics are for your information only and not to say your reasoning for your choice is incorrect.
BigFoot Bob says: In the mind of a BigFoot. My thinking was 5-6 touching cards could product something. Leading one of the nines, I could pick up two more point with another nine or six if paired. Just good luck with the starter card.
BigFoot Bob says: Thanks Rosemarie44 would you teach me how to do the formulas or math please?
Guest says: Don’t be so sure that was a good cut Big Foot. With 2-3 to the crib that four cut may have cost you the game.
Rosemarie44 says: Hi BigFoot Bob: I will be happy to get you started but I do believe Ras is the best teacher as he taught me. He is at raswino29@outlook.com. 1. go to cliambrown.com site and plug in the hand, 2c 3s 5d 6h, 9d, 9 c. choose opponent's crib and submit. Do that and get back to me.
JQT says: At Hole 95, we need Twenty-Six Points to win, and the "Twenty-Six Theory" of Cribbage means that we should tend to average this during our next Three Counts as Dealer-then-Pone (Hand and Crib as Next Dealer, then First Hand Show as Next-Next Pone). This means we probably won't require many points at all during this deal as Pone! Our efforts therefore are maybe better spent on defense. Set the pegs up at this very instructive position, and play out a few dozen sample endgame hands to see the effects; it will be time well spent.
BigFoot Bob says: Ok I did that.
Guest says: Hi BFB: look at the first entry "2-3" Brown says that is "aggressive" look under column "hand" see that the avg. is 8.50 pts, the hand has a min of 6 to a maximum of 12 points. Under "Crib" the avg. is 7.40 pts. To get your avg. value for this hand take avg.hand at 8.50 and minus the crib value of 7.40 pts. that will give you the figure for this toss. Then go to the next line and do the same. 2-5 is less risky than 2-3 but in this position we don't want to give up either of these tosses to dealer. So going to the third line 2-9 do the same math . less risky toss, Note we are close to par at 95 (96) and we have the next hand as dealer. So defense here at this hand.
Guest says: Hi BFB: the par holes are 18 - 44- 70- 96 -111 for your information. That's me here and above. Rosemarie44
Guest says: Hi BFB: there is another step I do but it is harder to do this step in live play. It is hard for me to explain over the internet. Actually it is determining how many cuts increase the value of the hand you have chosen to hold. So for example: cuts of 3, 6 and 9 increase the value of today's hand. Ten cuts then do not increase this hand. Two cuts increase hand to 12 points and 1 cut increases hand to 14 pts. Are you with so far?
Guest says: Hi BFB: disregard the above last reply. Copied the wrong page!!!!!!
BigFoot Bob says: Can you please email me Rosemarie44? Bob@askaroofer.com
Rosemarie44 says: Hi BigFoot Bob: Do you understand the table and what the figures are saying to you depending on the toss you choose for this hand?
Inushtuk1
1488 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Monday 9:13 AM
I agree the (2-3) is too dangerous here. I kept the 3 for the chance for the 4 card run. I’ll have to go back and read JQT’s explanation for why he kept the 2. It seems to me though that (2-9) and (3-9) are very similar in crib averages. And the 3-5-6-9 does have a slightly higher average hand. I prefer the key connector in my hand rather than Dealer’s. Leading the 3. Defense.
Jazzselke says: Keeping the 2 and getting a 4 cut doesn't give us the 4-card run,but actually gives us 9, 1 more point!
Inushtuk1 says: Thanks Dan. I knew there had to be something I was missing.
Gougie00
5731 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Monday 9:50 AM
Cant win the game here, but I can lose it. 3-9 to stifle the dealer's crib. Lead the 2 and play defense.
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Monday 2:52 PM
I think we should keep the 6-9-9 to get well past 4th street par-hole. That means its 2-3, 3-5 or 2-5. 2-3 scores 7½pts (Schell: 7.33), 3-5 = 6¾pts (Schell: 6.78) and 2-5 is 6¼pts (Schell: 6.11).

I'll throw the 2-5 as the lowest scoring discard keeping 6pts.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Monday 3:35 PM
At 95-91* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense__Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total_____W1 %___W2 %
5-6-9-9__8.52+(-2.61)+(-7.42)=(-1.51)___0.0___34.1
3-6-9-9__7.17+(-2.85)+(-6.26)=(-1.94)___0.0___29.6
3-5-6-9*_4.96+(-2.78)+(-4.29)=(-2.11)___0.0___24.6
2-5-6-9__4.91+(-2.89)+(-4.26)=(-2.24)___0.0___23.9
2-6-9-9__7.30+(-2.89)+(-6.89)=(-2.48)___0.0___26.4

Defense_______L1 %___L2 %
5-6-9-9_______1.7____34.8
3-6-9-9_______0.7____26.8
3-5-6-9*______0.6____21.7
2-5-6-9_______0.8____22.9
2-6-9-9_______1.2____30.6

5-6-9-9 is best for expected averages by 0.43pt and is best for Win %s by a significant margin. However the 2-3 discard is very risky and the Loss %s of 5-6-9-9 are very high and as I'm recommending Defense and in this critical board position the Win/Loss %s take account of this. So I'll select 2-5 to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll lead the 3 and play Defense:

Lead_____________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
3_______________________(-2.24)
6_______________________(-2.31)
9_______________________(-2.33)
Guest says: Fake News!!!
Ras2829
5155 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Monday 5:28 PM
Late getting on and if playing defense am not discarding a 5 with anything to opponent crib. So we can toss the 2-3 for 7.524 (286) avg or 2-5 5.794 (136). No thanks! Since am already at hole 95 (4th St CPZ is 95-99) and dealer is four holes short, it comes down to the 2-9 or 3-9. If not for the delta effect, my choice would have been 2-9. The 3-9 has the lower average by a whisker according to the Cribbage Prof and you can see that reflected in HalscribCLX analysis above. Will lead the deuce and split 5-6 next. Likely to drop the 5 spot as seeing the 6-9 as not too great a threat since also discarded a nine. Knowing that have nine points after the cut of the four, will likely pass up a 15-2 unless it were to look very safe. This is an excellent puzzle Andy (muesli64) as it mirrors the difficult decisions often required in this game on the opponent deal. On this site we can take all day to make the decision and ponder over the effects. In a real game, decision making is generally confined to a few seconds - seldom a full minute. This hand like many others would be a "no-brainer" if discarding to own crib. That's cribbage - what a wonder!
Ras2829 says: BTW my vote jumps the total for this choice to a whoppin' 3%!
Ras2829 says: Actually should have kept the 9c since planned to lead the 2c. Might be able to fake the flush. Another 2% made that choice.
JQT says: I couldn't agree more! Halscrib is definitely a most formidable and worthy opponent, but it's discard decisions such as the one presented today that I feel may allow us humans to try to still set ourselves apart and find an edge. Toss (3 9) not only has the precious "Negative Delta" we desire with the Dealer in such a dangerous position, but it also allows us to avoid throwing any semblance of either a 5 Card, or cards such as 2-3, i.e., cards that 'add up' to five. Remember, even if the 5 Card does little or nothing to help us as Pone, the retention of in such positions as this one mainly serves to keep it out of action for the Dealer! I have dubbed such discarding avoidance tactics as "Five Card Insurance," and that's because the one card (or value) that can really harm us the most in such precarious positions is the 5 Card. Especially dangerous is when we Cut a 5 Card during such positions, as the Dealer now gets to use it TWICE: once in the Hand, and once in the Crib. By holding onto any form of 5 Card (or cards that add up to five) we avoid such a hazard.
JQT says: Note: my last sentence above should probably end: "(or cards that *might* add up to five)..." as it refers to Dealer's Crib. RAS refers to the lowest Crib Value given by Halscrib of -4.26 points; since we already like our own score here, in this defensive situation, we are less concerned with the NET values and the TOTAL values, and we are primarily concerned with the LOWEST ABSOLUTE VALUE of the Dealer's Crib.