November 13, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)
95-91*  ?
46%
20%
17%
3%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
Total votes: 179

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Jazzselke
861 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Monday 3:09 AM
In complete defensive posture, 39 best choice IMO as there is negative delta with us holding a 6 and another 9.
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spin121
211 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Monday 3:22 AM
I hate this puzzle and I love this puzzle
All these good cards and I can't keep them. But this is the kind thing that happens in cribbage A LOT. Leading my 3. Defense
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Rosemarie44
647 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Monday 3:24 AM
Defense for me also as we are at par alread as pone.
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JQT
2095 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Monday 4:18 AM
Must try to defend, and I'll probably lead the 6 Card, since I was dealt two 9 Cards, and this breaks up the hand nicely.
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james500
1589 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Monday 4:27 AM
Tempting to keep 6-9-9-?, but not sure it's worth the risk at these positions. Someone with the charts will have to tell me whether 2-5 tends to be more dangerous than 3-9.

Every cut bar a 3 will help me, (4+ points in the crib though), and I have a 16 with 2-5-9.

2(2)-5(7)-9(16)-X(26)-5(31/2).
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dec
3813 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Monday 4:38 AM
A stingy discard. Third best potential for average in main hand with any cut but a three adding to add. Another element the eleven count on hand. I will lead the two and seperate the five and the six on any potential pegging damage. Its like football all three elements to a team strat offense, defense and special teams ( pegging ). Go Pats!. dec
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glmccuskey
2460 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Monday 4:43 AM
Only a 2 or 8 doesnít get us back to at least four points. Not going to throw 2-3 or the 5 in this spot. Iíll lead the three.
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BigFoot Bob
566 votes

Joined: April 2016

   
Monday 5:05 AM
Keep my six and nines. The 2-3 is troubling but I don't really want to send the five over the board either. I have to chance the 2-3 toss to have a chance to win.
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Inushtuk1
384 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Monday 9:13 AM
I agree the (2-3) is too dangerous here. I kept the 3 for the chance for the 4 card run. Iíll have to go back and read JQTís explanation for why he kept the 2. It seems to me though that (2-9) and (3-9) are very similar in crib averages. And the 3-5-6-9 does have a slightly higher average hand. I prefer the key connector in my hand rather than Dealerís. Leading the 3. Defense.
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Gougie00
3326 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Monday 9:50 AM
Cant win the game here, but I can lose it. 3-9 to stifle the dealer's crib. Lead the 2 and play defense.
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Coeurdelion
3282 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Monday 2:52 PM
I think we should keep the 6-9-9 to get well past 4th street par-hole. That means its 2-3, 3-5 or 2-5. 2-3 scores 7Ĺpts (Schell: 7.33), 3-5 = 6ĺpts (Schell: 6.78) and 2-5 is 6ľpts (Schell: 6.11).

I'll throw the 2-5 as the lowest scoring discard keeping 6pts.
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HalscribCLX
3032 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Monday 3:35 PM
At 95-91* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense__Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total_____W1 %___W2 %
5-6-9-9__8.52+(-2.61)+(-7.42)=(-1.51)___0.0___34.1
3-6-9-9__7.17+(-2.85)+(-6.26)=(-1.94)___0.0___29.6
3-5-6-9*_4.96+(-2.78)+(-4.29)=(-2.11)___0.0___24.6
2-5-6-9__4.91+(-2.89)+(-4.26)=(-2.24)___0.0___23.9
2-6-9-9__7.30+(-2.89)+(-6.89)=(-2.48)___0.0___26.4

Defense_______L1 %___L2 %
5-6-9-9_______1.7____34.8
3-6-9-9_______0.7____26.8
3-5-6-9*______0.6____21.7
2-5-6-9_______0.8____22.9
2-6-9-9_______1.2____30.6

5-6-9-9 is best for expected averages by 0.43pt and is best for Win %s by a significant margin. However the 2-3 discard is very risky and the Loss %s of 5-6-9-9 are very high and as I'm recommending Defense and in this critical board position the Win/Loss %s take account of this. So I'll select 2-5 to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll lead the 3 and play Defense:

Lead_____________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
3_______________________(-2.24)
6_______________________(-2.31)
9_______________________(-2.33)
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Ras2829
2818 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Monday 5:28 PM
Late getting on and if playing defense am not discarding a 5 with anything to opponent crib. So we can toss the 2-3 for 7.524 (286) avg or 2-5 5.794 (136). No thanks! Since am already at hole 95 (4th St CPZ is 95-99) and dealer is four holes short, it comes down to the 2-9 or 3-9. If not for the delta effect, my choice would have been 2-9. The 3-9 has the lower average by a whisker according to the Cribbage Prof and you can see that reflected in HalscribCLX analysis above. Will lead the deuce and split 5-6 next. Likely to drop the 5 spot as seeing the 6-9 as not too great a threat since also discarded a nine. Knowing that have nine points after the cut of the four, will likely pass up a 15-2 unless it were to look very safe. This is an excellent puzzle Andy (muesli64) as it mirrors the difficult decisions often required in this game on the opponent deal. On this site we can take all day to make the decision and ponder over the effects. In a real game, decision making is generally confined to a few seconds - seldom a full minute. This hand like many others would be a "no-brainer" if discarding to own crib. That's cribbage - what a wonder!
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