November 14, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by Inushtuk1
104*-108  ?
65%
23%
4%
3%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 196

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dec
3813 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Tuesday 3:04 AM
That is one less three to worry about. Defense, the fives should take care of the counts needed, that is why I kept peggers here. dec
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spin121
211 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Tuesday 3:38 AM
Ordinarily I would Toss two 5s to my crib here. But I need defense and I'm afraid of getting caught up in a pegging battle if I kept 5567.
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Rosemarie44
647 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Tuesday 3:39 AM
The run and 5-T to our crib seems to be the obvious choice. Do we want both offense and defense here? Holding three 5's gives us that with a higher expected combined value than holding the run. Inushtuk1?
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JQT
2095 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Tuesday 4:05 AM
They say that Pawns are the "Soul" of Chess; similarly, I contend that "Pegging" is the "Soul" of Cribbage.

Amazingly and quite serendipitously, Mr. Mike has cleverly and ever-so-convincingly placed us as the Dealer almost *exactly* where we might expect to find ourselves after the completion of yesterday's puzzle!

This gets a bit lengthy (mixing Coffee and Bourbon; that'll do it every time...), but I wanted to 'dissect' this excellent puzzle and its discard decision in greater detail so that some of our newer players could perhaps 'peek into the purported brain' of an aging Cribbage Junkie.

Should we hold the powerful Fourteen Points in our Hand with Keep (5 5 5 T), and possibly get 'boxed in' and perhaps risk 'coughing up' a few points during the pegging? Or should we retain a Double RUN via Keep (5 5 6 7) and Toss (5 T) into our Crib, which is probably Eight plus Two equals Ten Points 'and probably still counting'?

Our opponent should average Ten Points after the Pegging and Hand is all over and done with, and that would place Pone at around Hole 118 as Next Dealer, which would be an extremely dangerous position. Although I am pretty sure that most people will simply 'go with the greater static points' today, I think that this decision is possibly WAY more difficult than it appears.

Do we want to risk giving up a greater-than-average movement of our opponent in order to retain the Monster Fourteen-Point behemoth Hand, or do we 'hedge' a bit now and hope to 'sneak in the back door' with First Hand Show as the Next Non Dealer?

As one who often advocates "Do what gives you the most flexibility," I must admit that I am initially inclined to submit and do the latter. This would mean Keep (5 5 6 7), but the more I look at this thing, the more I believe that the Double RUN choice seems to be primed for defeat, as it may give up even more during the pegging.

At least with the Keep (5 5 5 T) choice, we may enjoy a little bit of pegging immunity, since we might have some "Safety in Numbers" with our multiple 5 Cards. Both of these choices seem to be involving too much risk during the pegging, so I wonder: are there any other options here today?

We are Seventeen Holes away from Paradise, and therefore as long as we hold Pone 'short' of say Hole 116, this might allow us to safely "coast" toward victory with First Hand Show as Next Non Dealer!

This means that as the Dealer, we may really only require about Eight or Ten Points during this entire excursion as Dealer, thus we could actually entertain crazy thoughts such as Keep (5 5 7 T) and Toss (5 6), or even Keep (5 6 7 T) and Toss (5 5)!

In a strictly defensive capacity, it's not so important how far we move (providing we get within capable 'striking' distance), as long as we adequately hold Pone back. But can we really guarantee this? Or might we have more absolute control here by just going into Full Throttle Offensive Mode?

In that realm, even if Pone were to end up at Hole 120, by retaining the "Big Guns" of Keep (5 5 5 T) as Dealer, we may "burst into victory" during This Deal, and avoid any complexities that would almost certainly come if we continue on toward another deal.

The fact is, if Pone either does have a Great Hand, or get a Great Cut, there's really little we can do about this. But we do have some control over two crucial things here: first, while the pegging may get "sloppy" as we're holding three 5 Cards, it would possibly be even "sloppier" if we held the Double RUN. And second, by "storming the beach" with the Fourteen-Point Monster, we may indeed effectively "take away" Pone's most powerful weapon here, and that would be Pone's desire to live for the pegging during Another Deal.

After some deep thought (and way too many words; but hey, at least I'm not pontificating on the Affordable Care Act...), I think we must try to avoid the vagaries of heading into the Next Deal, and so I shall Keep (5 5 5 T) and venture forth all guns blazing! We do wish to minimize Pone's Pegging, so I'll attempt to "duck and dodge" all the way through with the numerous 5 Cards.

The Trey Cut adds nothing we know of to our Crib, so it would be nice to peg Three Holes to assure Victory during This Deal: may it be so! At least we'll have no trouble trying to hold either a PAIR or a (15-2) with our last two cards! ; - )
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Gougie00
3326 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Tuesday 5:04 AM
Nice puzzle. I gotta play offense because I cant play defense.
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Jazzselke
861 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Tuesday 5:16 AM
5567, along with 5667 and 5677, are 3 of the hardest hands to avoid pegging by the opponent IMO. 555X is no bargain either, but I will take my chances on that and try to avoid another deal.
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james500
1589 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Tuesday 5:40 AM
It doesn't follow Ras' rule on sacrifice limits, but since it's the end of the game, I'd be interested to see what the win% for this arrangement would be.
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Andy (muesli64)
1292 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Tuesday 6:23 AM
Throwing 6-7. Can think too deeply otherwise??!!
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glmccuskey
2460 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Tuesday 7:19 AM
It's pretty much all been said above. I have an escape card with the ten and should go out on this deal if my opponent doesn't.
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Inushtuk1
384 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Tuesday 11:35 AM
I agree with JQT on this one. This is our best chance to go out now. Not sure that the double run would be “sloppier” than 5-5-5-X; but it does give us the best chance to win *now*
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Coeurdelion
3282 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Tuesday 11:38 AM
We may have really good potential with 5-5-6-7 (5H-10H) but we only need 17pts to go out and with 5-5-5-10 we already hold 14pts! The power of the 6-7 discard will be severely reduced as we hold three 5s but it doesn't matter as we only have to get 3pts with the pegging and the crib and thats only if we get no increase with the hand from 5 + 15xXs. So I'll throw the 6-7.
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HalscribCLX
3032 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Tuesday 11:57 AM
At 104*-108 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages aaand Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Net
Optimal__Hand__Pegs_Crib_Total____Win %s__Loss %
5-5-6-7*_12.11+1.76+6.37=20.24____74.6____25.4
5-5-5-10_15.04+0.43+4.57=20.05____79.8____20.2

* 5H-10H discard

5-5-6-7 is better for expected averages by 0.19pt but 5-5-5-10 is significantly better for Win %s which at this end-game position is more important than the expected averages. So I'll select 6-7 to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
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joekayak
290 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Tuesday 12:18 PM
No one seems to mention that with 14 in hand PLUS one sure peg, we are only two from victory if we can peg defensively. Can't keep the pone from holding 8876 but might be able to keep pone from pegging 1. Def Def Def.
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Ras2829
2818 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Tuesday 2:24 PM
At hole 104 with 14 points in hand and a guaranteed peg, RAS is sitting at hole 119. The 6-7 to own crib averages 5.140 and all I need in the crib is two points easily attained with frequent non-dealer discards of 9-K, 9-Q, or a 6/7/8 with any X-pointer. Seems to me that choosing optimal or offense, the 5-5-5-X should be retained. Playoff the lead though would take a 15-2 on a X-lead or would pair a five if led. Otherwise will play off if possible. With three fives, a trey on the deck, and the lead of a trey would play the 5h. A few pegs for non-dealer and this game could be over. Less chance of them holding the four spot with 5-5-5 in my hand than holding a deuce with the trey lead. Had I been at hole 94 instead of 104 would have played 5-5-6-7 with 5h-10h to crib.
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BigFoot Bob
566 votes

Joined: April 2016

Tuesday 5:28 PM
Tonight is all about learning. I will admit I had to take a look at the results so I will not score my discard today. Thanks Rosemarie44. I will call you coach from now on.
Had fun today Bee Mann even loosing three games of cribbage to you is better than working.
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The_Bee_Mann
293 votes

Joined: November 2016

   
Tuesday 8:25 PM
I discarded the 6 and 7. Its all dependent on if the pone doesn't have enough to go out.
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