November 19, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by ras2829
0-0*  ?
58%
28%
6%
2%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 139
dec
6359 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 3:06 AM
Wide and most to start, unless you count the flush .Four lead. dec
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 3:07 AM
I really need to do better after the last few days. Okay, here goes. This hand increases with every cut and improves by 4-3/4 points in expected average from 4 points to 8.70 points.
This hand has a three card "magic eleven" also for pegging advantage as pone.
Values for tosses to dealer are: 2-9, 4.57 points; and 7-9, 5.10 points. Ras will give us statistics as to how well each toss fares by tossing these cards in the dealers crib.
Rosemarie44 says: I didn't even see the Flush. A first for me.
Rosemarie44 says: I don't believe it would be to my advantage to hold the Flush and toss 3-5 to dealer which is worth 6.72 points!
Rosemarie44 says: For what is is worth in Ras's new videos he mentions the hand 3-4-5-7. He says it is better to hold an "8" than the "7" as there is pegging room between the 5 and the 8.
Ras2829 says: Hi Rosemarie44: Well done and near the head of the pack - hard to beat dec getting on here. You were within a minute even so. It's much more difficult to make the choice in a vacuum. That's what you find here at 3:00 AM.
Rosemarie44 says: Hi Ras: Thank you for your kind words! Came on this morning to look at responses as usual and saw your post.
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Sunday 3:24 AM
2 - 9 is automatic for me. What is the catch Ras?
BigFoot Bob
624 votes

Joined: April 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 3:36 AM
Keeping the short run so I can toss wide to the pones crib. (2-9) My holding the 3-4-5-7 has some potential.
Inushtuk1
1488 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 4:53 AM
Keeping the long run. I can only score 12 max, not 14, but I have much better peggers than 3-4-5-7. I think that might be the catch Andy. Lead the 3. It’s the (7-9) curse for me.
Inushtuk1 says: Forgot to mention this keep *also* has a three card eleven. But as you can see I am not using it. If you want to lead the 2 I wouldn’t argue with you.
Inushtuk1 says: JQT is right again. The long run with the lower max has the higher average hand.
JQT says: It's nice to once again have earned your much-appreciated vote of confidence! ; - ) Incidentally, the "C. Liam Brown" site illustrates a very good comparison matrix for today's puzzle, Ref: https://cliambrown.com/cribbage/?data=2C3S4C5D7C9CN
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 5:09 AM
Both 2-3-4-5 and 3-4-5-7 are powerful potential hands.

It's difficult to believe, especially after throwing a 5 Card to the Dealer, that the FLUSH could compensate us adequately.

Toss (7 9) is awkward, and I have often dubbed it "The Curse," but it's still far better than unleashing a 5 Card into the wild!

I especially like the *growth prospects* of the Long RUN (it may not grow to be the highest, but indeed it grows the best!), so I'll Keep (2 3 4 5) and Toss (7 9).

I'll lead the Trey and 'go for the low-hanging fruit' of the early (15-2), thus 'messing up' both the three-card "Magic Eleven" construct as well as the Fake Flush. I'm a bit destructive today, I know.
JQT says: As First Non-Dealer, the reasons why we should both strive for the highest Expected Average in our Hand as well as why we should not worry too much about giving up a bit more in the Dealer's Crib (or during the pegging) are described in detail in the superb Cribbage book by De Lynn Colvert called "Play Winning Cribbage" in a chapter titled "Cribbage for the Expert" (Edition 3) pages 75-104 (especially read page 79). Dealer begins with a positional advantage, but if we as the First Non-Dealer can score just a few 'extra' (from five to seven) points throughout the game, then we may be able to tilt the alternate "cycle" of deals such that we now enjoy a 9-deal game as opposed to a ten-deal game, which will then usually favor us as the First Non Dealer.
JQT says: When we begin a game of Cribbage as the First Non-Dealer, our greatest "reach" comes at the time when we have 'First Hand Show' and score during completion of our odd-numbered deals, as we do so *before* the Dealer can begin his or her next 'Three Counts' of Hand, Crib, and Hand as Next Pone. The First Dealer's greatest "reach" therefore comes at the completion of every even-numbered deal, when he or she becomes Pone. All of this is a bit complicated by the fact that the Current Dealer always enjoys a smaller "reach" during the pegging, but while this 'low-high-tide' of Dealer Pegging Advantage consists of perhaps Four or Five Holes, the "reach" of First Hand Show for the Non Dealer (or Pone) is closer to about Nine or Ten Holes. Read Colvert's book, and study the Critical Position Zones as developed by RAS, for a much more detailed explanation.
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: Just terrific! Happy Thanksgiving - treat the turkey tenderly.
Gougie00
5731 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 6:46 AM
Tempted to toss 7-9, but I took the safe route and tossed 2-9. Lead the 4, and grab whatever pegs present themselves.
Jazzselke
2587 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Sunday 7:47 AM
Possible 14 for first hand, and good pegging cards. 2345 more versatile and also good pegging, but would rather throw 29 than 79.
King Richard says: King agrees. Don't toss 7-9 and risk giving the game away on Deal 1. And, lots of potential with what we are keeping.
glmccuskey
4102 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Sunday 8:22 AM
I like the 3-4-5 run and I always hold the seven with it. I’ll read on and see if anyone changes my mind.
Sgt Pegger says: I am completely with you on this one. I like the 4 start with this combination.
spin121
299 votes

Joined: March 2016
Sunday 8:57 AM
2 3 4 5 was Very tempting. But I have the whole game to make up 7 holes and don't want to risk that 7 9 just yet.
spin121 says: Leading my 7 hoping for an 8 response so can play my 5 and hope for a 6 from dealer.
spin121 says: Leading my 7 hoping for an 8 response so can play my 5 and hope for a 6 from dealer.
Ras2829
5155 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 7:52 PM
Use discretion in retaining these four cards and discarding two mid-cards to opponent. Puzzle submitted as there are only two sets of middle cards which justify the retention of 2-3-4-5. Those are the 7-9 and 9-9. In both cases, the combined value will be greater if holding the 4-card run. That doesn't work with any other set of mid-cards whether of sequence, or pairs, or cards with a gap such as 6-8 or 6-9. Will lead the trey and take pegs as offered.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Monday 12:03 AM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W9 %____W10 %
2-3-4-5___8.65+2.11+(-5.02)=5.74____30.3____26.3
3-4-5-7___8.39+1.59+(-4.35)=5.63____28.6____25.8

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
2-3-4-5______40.4____49.3
3-4-5-7______38.5____49.3

2-3-4-5 is 0.11pt better for expected averages and also slightly better for Win %s although 3-4-5-7 is slightly lower for Loss %s. So I'll select 7-9 to discard.

After the 10 cut I'll lead the 3 and play Offense:

Lead________Our Pegging Pts.
3________________2.37
2________________2.24
4________________2.17
5________________1.78