December 3, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by Jazzselke
44*-48  ?
51%
51%
35%
35%
5%
5%
3%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
Total votes: 137
Rosemarie44

Joined: March 2016 (2241 votes)

Sunday 3:13 AM
I prefer 2-3 in my crib and this hand has a slightly higher combined average (average expected hand and crib value). Crib values are: 2-3, 7.14 points, and 9-9, 5.21 points.
Rosemarie44 says: I have noted that Ras explained usually pairs in the crib, are good if playing defense and pairs in hand are good for playing offense due to the pegging advantage of these two pairs held in the hand.
Guest says: Pears
JQT

Joined: October 2008 (4517 votes)

Sunday 3:24 AM
Today we're going to compare Toss (6 9) with Toss (9 9) and the legendary Toss (2 3). And lastly, I'll have something awful to say about Toss (2 4).

Toss (6 9) might 'work' for some people here, but frankly it's not for me. Toss (6 9) holds an attraction for some players, probably because of its numerical relation to Toss (7 8). But don't confuse them, because these two discards are definitely from opposite sides of the tracks.

When we are the Dealer, what value does a PEAR (PAIR) add to our Crib? You've basically got Two Points, as long as you keep them together, regardless of where they end up. So they often add nothing. And this is the "trap" here of Toss (9 9).

Still, it's not a terrible way to 'split' this bunch. Better however I think is Toss (2 3). This is frequently a discard with some Future Growth! I *dare* you to throw Toss (2 3) and NOT get any added points!

I'd be remiss if I didn't touch upon the dangers of Toss (2 4) from this arrangement. Don't do it.

The 3-6-9 group is ONLY helped by "like" cards, and since we were already dealt many of these, it's a low-probability discard decision. And Toss (2 4) is a far cry from Toss (2 3).
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4346 votes)

Sunday 3:29 AM
Completely missed the 2-3 option, only considered 9-9, 6-9 and 3-6. Mulligan!

Every cut will increase the value of my hand, and it has an eleven with 6-3-2.
Hillchem says: Ditto for me. Learning today.
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6856 votes)

Sunday 3:31 AM
Goal 59 plus so its offense leaning towards crib potential output and depending on opponents lead probably defense. That is what I surmise with a little wait time on decisions in playing live. Numbers explain the rest. dec
Rosemarie44 says: Hi dec: Yes, I thoroughly agree with you there. Usually do the hands up ahead of time if possible. Advantage of moderator position!
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (6172 votes)

Sunday 4:59 AM
Nice puzzle Dan.

2 ways to go, either 23 or 99. I'll try the 23. The ace starter means there is at least 5 in the crib. I want to be at hole 60 at the end of this deal, so I'll peg aggressive.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Greg. “The ace starter means there is at least 5 in the crib.” I think Dan Selke said the same thing several months ago. Good to know. This is something I was completely unaware of before I discovered this site. I wonder how many others; people who have played for years; do not know this? It can definitely affect your pegging strategy after the cut.
JQT says: Any time you have either a 5 Card in a Crib, or two cards that add up to five, that Crib will ALWAYS produce at least Two Points. And adding an Ace Cut to the mix *still* means that we'll get Two MORE Points! With other Cuts, it's not so simple. Those 'added' Two Points won't always necessarily come from a (15-2), as we can see by constructs such as: (2 3 3 5 6). For example, after Toss (2 3), what if the Cut were the Trey? You'll always get Two Points or more, but *sometimes* the only points may come from the Cut itself! Where it becomes a bit tricky is when the Cut may add points and then possibly either allow for, or preclude, the addition of any MORE points than those Two Points generated from the Cut. When we examine Toss (2 3) with either an Ace or a 4 Card Cut however, we find that we'll ALWAYS get Two MORE Points, in addition to the Points from the RUN. That's why this is an important concept to remember, because sometimes the points produced by the Cut Itself are the ONLY POINTS we shall have, while at other times, as in the case of either an A-2-3 or 2-3-4 RUN formed by the Starter or Cut, we'll always get at least TWO MORE POINTS. Today's Exercise: What other Cuts (if any), after we Toss (2 3) to our Own Crib, might immediately add points, and yet *STILL* allow us to anticipate the addition of Two MORE Points? Are there any?
Inushtuk1 says: The dog ate my homework.
Ras2829

Joined: November 2008 (5496 votes)

Sunday 7:26 AM
Although the 2-3-4-6 with 9-9 discard garners nearly a full point more in potential hand value and more than a point in offensive pegging potential, the power of the 2-3 to the crib erases those advantages. Am dealing from solid position within the 2nd street CPZ 43-47. My next deal needs to be from 3rd street CPZ 69-73. So will play offense to the lead and take any pegs offered. If I can attain my positional targets, opponent will have upcoming deal from the middle of nowhere. My scant empirical data shows that the preferred choice of tis day has the edge by less than .1 of a point. Interesting puzzle from Jazzselke.
Ras2829 says: BTW can reasonably expect 5-7 points in crib as a minimum even if opponent discarded low scoring choices such as 10-K, 9-K, 9-Q, 6-K etc. After knowing that our hand remains at six points, 3-4 pegs becomes increasingly a need. So peg BOLD or as Gougie00 states: ...."peg aggressive."
spin121

Joined: March 2016 (299 votes)

Sunday 7:34 AM
Love 2 3 to my crib. Would like to solidify my advantage so will peg offensively but no pairing. I think this could be called optimal.
spin121 says: Something else from yesterday's puzzle that occurred to me: if we are playing in a format where spread pts matter that 7 7 8 8 keep - discard 5 Q on average is going to give us more spread pts.
Inushtuk1

Joined: July 2016 (1833 votes)

Sunday 10:22 AM
Sneaky Dan. Very sneaky. The 2-3 are suited. If they weren’t I would have seriously considered 2-3-4-6 for its much higher average hand, and better offensive pegging potential. *That’s* how close this one is. I don’t think it was just a coincidence that the 2-3 are suited.
Inushtuk1 says: The (2-3) to my crib averages 7 points. I will assume I have that much, and play defensively. I’ll pair the 9 lead though. With two in my hand, that 9 more likely came from 2-3-4-9, or A-2-3-9. In which case Pone will score two points should I reply with the *seemingly* safe 4.
BigFoot Bob

Joined: April 2016 (624 votes)

Sunday 11:12 AM
The 2-3 discard to my crib is a great toss, maybe as good as my hand.
Coeurdelion

Joined: October 2007 (5766 votes)

Sunday 3:25 PM
Its between 2-3-4-6 (9-9), 2-3-4-9 (6-9) and 4-6-9-9 (2-3):

2-3-4-6: 5pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.16) = 10¼pts

2-3-4-9: 5pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.13) = 10¼pts

4-6-9-9: 6pts + 6¾pts (Schell: 7.00) = 12¾pts

Potential:

2-3-4-6: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 666, 7777, 8888, 99 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 11/12pts with 222, 333, 444, 666 = 12 cuts.

2-3-4-9: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 666, 8888, 99 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 12pts with 222, 333, 444 = 9 cuts.

4-6-9-9: Improves with 222, 444, 5555, 666, 99 = 15 cuts = 15/46 = 32.6% up to 11/12pts with 5555, 666, 99 = 9 cuts.

Pegging:

I think 2-3-4-6 will peg best but perhaps 46-9-9 if pegging Defensively.

Position:

We are in a good lead positionally. I don't think we need to play Defense so I'll take pegs where I can and peg Offense.

Summary:

2-3-4-6 is better than 2-3-4-9 in all respects so its between 2-3-4-6 and 4-6-9-9. 4-6-9-9 has many fewere cuts for improvement and fewer for a good hand. Also pegging Offense 2-3-4-6 will be much better. But 4-6-9-9 has a 2½pts higher starting value. Will 2-3-4-6 make this up? In this position I'm inclined to keep what I've got. We start with 6pts in hand and a guaranteed 2pts in the box but with a good chance of a lot more averaging 7pts (according to Schell). So I'll throw the 2-3.
HalscribCLX

Joined: February 2008 (5704 votes)

Sunday 3:46 PM
At 44*-48 playing an Offense strategy the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W5 %____W6 %
4-6-9-9___7.48+2.67+6.89=17.04____17.2____43.9
2-3-4-6___8.41+3.72+4.89=17.02____16.3____40.8
2-3-4-9___8.02+3.46+4.85=16.33____15.0____39.5

Offense_______L5 %____L6 %
4-6-9-9_______12.1____28.7
2-3-4-6_______15.1____33.3
2-3-4-9_______14.8____34.2

Although 4-6-9-9 is only a very slim 0.02pt better than 2-3-4-6 for expected averages it is significantly best for both Win %s and Loss %s which take account of the board position at 3rd street CPZ. So I'll select 2-3 to discard.

After the A cut I'll play Defense to the lead.