Sunday 3:13 AM

I prefer 2-3 in my crib and this hand has a slightly higher combined average (average expected hand and crib value). Crib values are: 2-3, 7.14 points, and 9-9, 5.21 points.

   

Sunday 3:24 AM

Today we're going to compare Toss (6 9) with Toss (9 9) and the legendary Toss (2 3). And lastly, I'll have something awful to say about Toss (2 4).

Toss (6 9) might 'work' for some people here, but frankly it's not for me. Toss (6 9) holds an attraction for some players, probably because of its numerical relation to Toss (7 8). But don't confuse them, because these two discards are definitely from opposite sides of the tracks.

When we are the Dealer, what value does a PEAR (PAIR) add to our Crib? You've basically got Two Points, as long as you keep them together, regardless of where they end up. So they often add nothing. And this is the "trap" here of Toss (9 9).

Still, it's not a terrible way to 'split' this bunch. Better however I think is Toss (2 3). This is frequently a discard with some Future Growth! I *dare* you to throw Toss (2 3) and NOT get any added points!

I'd be remiss if I didn't touch upon the dangers of Toss (2 4) from this arrangement. Don't do it.

The 3-6-9 group is ONLY helped by "like" cards, and since we were already dealt many of these, it's a low-probability discard decision. And Toss (2 4) is a far cry from Toss (2 3).

   

Sunday 3:29 AM

Completely missed the 2-3 option, only considered 9-9, 6-9 and 3-6. Mulligan!

Every cut will increase the value of my hand, and it has an eleven with 6-3-2.

   

Sunday 3:31 AM

Goal 59 plus so its offense leaning towards crib potential output and depending on opponents lead probably defense. That is what I surmise with a little wait time on decisions in playing live. Numbers explain the rest. dec

   

Sunday 4:59 AM

Nice puzzle Dan.

2 ways to go, either 23 or 99. I'll try the 23. The ace starter means there is at least 5 in the crib. I want to be at hole 60 at the end of this deal, so I'll peg aggressive.

   

Sunday 7:26 AM

Although the 2-3-4-6 with 9-9 discard garners nearly a full point more in potential hand value and more than a point in offensive pegging potential, the power of the 2-3 to the crib erases those advantages. Am dealing from solid position within the 2nd street CPZ 43-47. My next deal needs to be from 3rd street CPZ 69-73. So will play offense to the lead and take any pegs offered. If I can attain my positional targets, opponent will have upcoming deal from the middle of nowhere. My scant empirical data shows that the preferred choice of tis day has the edge by less than .1 of a point. Interesting puzzle from Jazzselke.

   

Sunday 7:34 AM

Love 2 3 to my crib. Would like to solidify my advantage so will peg offensively but no pairing. I think this could be called optimal.

   

Sunday 10:22 AM

Sneaky Dan. Very sneaky. The 2-3 are suited. If they weren’t I would have seriously considered 2-3-4-6 for its much higher average hand, and better offensive pegging potential. *That’s* how close this one is. I don’t think it was just a coincidence that the 2-3 are suited.

   

Sunday 11:12 AM

The 2-3 discard to my crib is a great toss, maybe as good as my hand.

   

Sunday 3:25 PM

Its between 2-3-4-6 (9-9), 2-3-4-9 (6-9) and 4-6-9-9 (2-3):

2-3-4-6: 5pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.16) = 10¼pts

2-3-4-9: 5pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.13) = 10¼pts

4-6-9-9: 6pts + 6¾pts (Schell: 7.00) = 12¾pts

Potential:

2-3-4-6: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 666, 7777, 8888, 99 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 11/12pts with 222, 333, 444, 666 = 12 cuts.

2-3-4-9: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 666, 8888, 99 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 12pts with 222, 333, 444 = 9 cuts.

4-6-9-9: Improves with 222, 444, 5555, 666, 99 = 15 cuts = 15/46 = 32.6% up to 11/12pts with 5555, 666, 99 = 9 cuts.

Pegging:

I think 2-3-4-6 will peg best but perhaps 46-9-9 if pegging Defensively.

Position:

We are in a good lead positionally. I don't think we need to play Defense so I'll take pegs where I can and peg Offense.

Summary:

2-3-4-6 is better than 2-3-4-9 in all respects so its between 2-3-4-6 and 4-6-9-9. 4-6-9-9 has many fewere cuts for improvement and fewer for a good hand. Also pegging Offense 2-3-4-6 will be much better. But 4-6-9-9 has a 2½pts higher starting value. Will 2-3-4-6 make this up? In this position I'm inclined to keep what I've got. We start with 6pts in hand and a guaranteed 2pts in the box but with a good chance of a lot more averaging 7pts (according to Schell). So I'll throw the 2-3.

   

Sunday 3:46 PM

At 44*-48 playing an Offense strategy the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W5 %____W6 %
4-6-9-9___7.48+2.67+6.89=17.04____17.2____43.9
2-3-4-6___8.41+3.72+4.89=17.02____16.3____40.8
2-3-4-9___8.02+3.46+4.85=16.33____15.0____39.5

Offense_______L5 %____L6 %
4-6-9-9_______12.1____28.7
2-3-4-6_______15.1____33.3
2-3-4-9_______14.8____34.2

Although 4-6-9-9 is only a very slim 0.02pt better than 2-3-4-6 for expected averages it is significantly best for both Win %s and Loss %s which take account of the board position at 3rd street CPZ. So I'll select 2-3 to discard.

After the A cut I'll play Defense to the lead.