December 4, 2017
*** This hand was suggested by jqt
|Total votes: 171|
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Joined: March 2009
Monday 3:21 AM
Flush is 6 points but this hold is also 6 without throwing a 5 to our opponent. Although I will always go for the win if I believe the dealer has a reasonable chance to go out on this hand, here he is 19 out.And we still can get 10, 12 or 13. Even 8 or 9 puts us close enough to peg out next hand. BTW sorry I didn't comment on the last 2 days with my submissions; was busy but not successful playing in Florida. Side-note: when I had the 57788Q in a real game at 100-85* and threw 5Q, I did lose with a face-card cut.
Joined: June 2013
Monday 3:37 AM
The 8 is going, but with the 4 or the 5? Not tempted by 7-8.
The cuts that boost 5-5-7-J (3,5,6,X), will also provide a boost to the 4-5-7-J flush.
On the toss of a coin, I'll try the flush.
Joined: March 2016
Monday 3:37 AM
I am going with this hand and tossing 4-8. More cuts for improvement than any other choice including the Flush. The combined value (avg. exp. hand minus crib value) is considerably higher 4.16 points vs. 2.61 points. Ras's crib value used.
Joined: April 2008
Monday 3:38 AM
With sixteen X-5s still in the deck and the possibility of game hole with a cut that flush is a pale second here. Now with eleven, lead the seven and lean into a go or last card here. dec
Joined: November 2008
Monday 4:36 AM
Am with the majority here. Playing off.,off., off. which really means playing on, on, on. Will take any peg offered after seeing the starter card, knowing that I have 11 points. Will lead the 7. With four cards totaling 27 points in hand think it likely that I will score one peg. Will not panic if I go pegless as dealer needs 19 to win. So I likely have two deals to chalk up a win.
Joined: March 2008
Monday 5:13 AM
It's now or never, Come hold me tight
Kiss me my darling, Be mine tonight
Yet another do or die situation.
Joined: December 2008
Monday 5:40 AM
I hope I haven't dug a hole for myself with all these spades
Joined: June 2016
Monday 7:07 AM
The dealer has an 85 percent chance of winning this game on this deal. On the off chance that he may need to use his crib, I want to make it as difficult as possible.
Keeping the 4-5-5-J for the possible double run gives him a 7-8 in the crib. NOT ACCEPTABLE
Keeping the flush gives him a 5-8 in the crib. NOT ACCEPTABLE
That leaves us with the 5-5-7-J. A 6 cut will still give us the double run even though the percentages are lower than the other option and there is a higher likelihood that the 8-4 will balk his crib. While holding 5-5 in my hand leading the Jack is Not the best leading option so I will lead the 7.
Joined: March 2016
Monday 8:25 AM
looks like 3 5 6 X or even a 7 8 card is what I'm after. Flush is dangerous because of the 5 discard with it. After the spade cut I have 11. Just need one more peg for the win. Agree with Ras above play low and hope dealer plays out his cards so I get one peg for last card.
Joined: October 2008
Monday 9:05 AM
Who posted this thing, anyway?!
Toss (7 8) seems reckless, but maybe we should be in 'reckless' mode here?!
The fact is, any of the three popular choices of either the FLUSH, or Toss (5h 8), or Toss (4 8), or even Toss (7 8) are probably going to NET us about Eight to Ten Points, sans the pegging.
So ... which hand is the most likely to allow us to peg a few holes as Pone?
And if we do come up 'short,' which discard will most reliably prevent the Dealer from beating us to the Finish Line? I suppose Toss (4 J) is maybe a fourth consideration.
I don't rightly know what's best here; that's why I posted this thing! Toss (4 8) seems to be the most 'careful' choice we have.
But I'm going to try the FLUSH today, just out of habit. I'm probably WRONG!
Now I must peg TWO! I'll lead the 4 Card, and HOPE that at a Count of Fourteen, that my Jack can secure a 'go' at a Count of Twenty-Four ... wish me 'Rotza Ruck.'
Joined: April 2011
Monday 9:51 AM
Why keep the four when a 3 cut still gets us 10 points and you can most like live to peg another day.
Joined: October 2007
Monday 10:31 AM
We need 12pts to get out this deal or 10/11pts to likely peg out next hand. I don't think we need to risk 7-8 to increase our chances of 12pts. 5-5-7-J still has 333, 101010, QQQ, KKK = 12 cuts for 10pts, 3S, 10S, QS, KS = 4 cuts for 11pts and of course 55, 6666, JJJ = 9 cuts for 12pts or more. So I'll throw 4-8 as per the majority.
Joined: April 2016
Monday 1:16 PM
I just hated to giving the 7-8 to the dealer, so I broke up the hand and went with flush.
Joined: July 2016
Monday 4:11 PM
I went with the flush because it will be harder to read. Meaning I am more likely to peg a few holes, should I come up short, as JQT suggested. Iíll lead my J. I doubt Iíll see a 5 reply. But is a 7 or a 4 too much to expect? Hope not.
Joined: April 2015
Monday 6:16 PM
Going for a win here. If my numbers are correct, there are only 17 cards in the deck that give me less than 10 points.