December 4, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by jqt
109-102*  ?
53%
18%
13%
8%
3%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 171
Jazzselke
2570 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Monday 3:21 AM
Flush is 6 points but this hold is also 6 without throwing a 5 to our opponent. Although I will always go for the win if I believe the dealer has a reasonable chance to go out on this hand, here he is 19 out.And we still can get 10, 12 or 13. Even 8 or 9 puts us close enough to peg out next hand. BTW sorry I didn't comment on the last 2 days with my submissions; was busy but not successful playing in Florida. Side-note: when I had the 57788Q in a real game at 100-85* and threw 5Q, I did lose with a face-card cut.
Jazzselke says: 557J
Jazzselke says: 557J
Inushtuk1 says: Ah!. The Lee Bailey Salute. You’ll get em next time.
Inushtuk1 says: Ah!. The Lee Bailey Salute. You’ll get em next time.
Guest says: well coach....if I have to give up a 5 to play defense, then I may as well go for a 10-11-12 hand since the 2- 7-8-9 are the only cuts that won't help me. Took the chance. The flush didn't look Marv-worthy to me here. S :)
Guest says: well coach....if I have to give up a 5 to play defense, then I may as well go for a 10-11-12 hand since the 2- 7-8-9 are the only cuts that won't help me. Took the chance. The flush didn't look Marv-worthy to me here. S :)
cribbagepogo says: Why not log in?
cribbagepogo says: Why not log in?
james500
3896 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Monday 3:37 AM
The 8 is going, but with the 4 or the 5? Not tempted by 7-8.
The cuts that boost 5-5-7-J (3,5,6,X), will also provide a boost to the 4-5-7-J flush.
On the toss of a coin, I'll try the flush.
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Monday 3:37 AM
I am going with this hand and tossing 4-8. More cuts for improvement than any other choice including the Flush. The combined value (avg. exp. hand minus crib value) is considerably higher 4.16 points vs. 2.61 points. Ras's crib value used.
dec
6328 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Monday 3:38 AM
With sixteen X-5s still in the deck and the possibility of game hole with a cut that flush is a pale second here. Now with eleven, lead the seven and lean into a go or last card here. dec
dec says: 17 x-5s. dec
Ras2829
5126 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Monday 4:36 AM
Am with the majority here. Playing off.,off., off. which really means playing on, on, on. Will take any peg offered after seeing the starter card, knowing that I have 11 points. Will lead the 7. With four cards totaling 27 points in hand think it likely that I will score one peg. Will not panic if I go pegless as dealer needs 19 to win. So I likely have two deals to chalk up a win.
Ras2829 says: BTW if dealer should make count 17 on my 7 spot lead would make the count lower with the play of a five so as to give dealer chance to drop two cards. That would assure me of having the last card for that needed peg.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. Why is the 7 better than the 5 or J here?
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1; Probably no better than either with dealer so far out of the fray. Didn't bother leading from the 5 or Jack as don't believe either will be touched by dealer with me at hole 109. So might as well show dealer the sleeper card 7 expecting dealer to avoid that too. Or do you believe dealer will be playing offense?
Inushtuk1 says: Thanks Ras. I think the Dealer will be playing total defense. Show him/her my J and hope for a 7 reply which gives us the Win.
Gougie00
5703 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Monday 5:13 AM
It's now or never, Come hold me tight
Kiss me my darling, Be mine tonight

Yet another do or die situation.
polynumeral
4508 votes

Joined: December 2008

 
 
 
Monday 5:40 AM
I hope I haven't dug a hole for myself with all these spades
Jazzselke says: Clever!
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016

 
 
 
Monday 7:07 AM
The dealer has an 85 percent chance of winning this game on this deal. On the off chance that he may need to use his crib, I want to make it as difficult as possible.

Keeping the 4-5-5-J for the possible double run gives him a 7-8 in the crib. NOT ACCEPTABLE

Keeping the flush gives him a 5-8 in the crib. NOT ACCEPTABLE

That leaves us with the 5-5-7-J. A 6 cut will still give us the double run even though the percentages are lower than the other option and there is a higher likelihood that the 8-4 will balk his crib. While holding 5-5 in my hand leading the Jack is Not the best leading option so I will lead the 7.
Coeurdelion says: It can't be 85% chance of getting out this deal for Dealer? Average for Dealer is 16pts pegging, hand and crib and (s)he needs 19pts. It must be below 50%. I would estimate more like 30%?
Coeurdelion says: It can't be 85% chance of getting out this deal for Dealer? Average for Dealer is 16pts pegging, hand and crib and (s)he needs 19pts. It must be below 50%. I would estimate more like 30%?
Ras2829 says: Hi Coeurdelion: Your 30% figure for dealer to go out on this deal is right on. DeLynn Colvert, "in Play Winning Cribbage" shows dealer has 1 chance in 4 1/2 to score 19 points.
Ras2829 says: Hi Coeurdelion: Your 30% figure for dealer to go out on this deal is right on. DeLynn Colvert, "in Play Winning Cribbage" shows dealer has 1 chance in 4 1/2 to score 19 points.
spin121
299 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Monday 8:25 AM
looks like 3 5 6 X or even a 7 8 card is what I'm after. Flush is dangerous because of the 5 discard with it. After the spade cut I have 11. Just need one more peg for the win. Agree with Ras above play low and hope dealer plays out his cards so I get one peg for last card.
spin121 says: Also, with 2 five cards in my hand, it doesn't bode well that dealer will have 19 pts to go out this deal. So even if I miss getting that one peg I need I'm guaranteed to get it next deal (provided opponent doesn't peg out first)
JQT
4137 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Monday 9:05 AM
Who posted this thing, anyway?!

Toss (7 8) seems reckless, but maybe we should be in 'reckless' mode here?!

The fact is, any of the three popular choices of either the FLUSH, or Toss (5h 8), or Toss (4 8), or even Toss (7 8) are probably going to NET us about Eight to Ten Points, sans the pegging.

So ... which hand is the most likely to allow us to peg a few holes as Pone?

And if we do come up 'short,' which discard will most reliably prevent the Dealer from beating us to the Finish Line? I suppose Toss (4 J) is maybe a fourth consideration.

I don't rightly know what's best here; that's why I posted this thing! Toss (4 8) seems to be the most 'careful' choice we have.

But I'm going to try the FLUSH today, just out of habit. I'm probably WRONG!

Now I must peg TWO! I'll lead the 4 Card, and HOPE that at a Count of Fourteen, that my Jack can secure a 'go' at a Count of Twenty-Four ... wish me 'Rotza Ruck.'
JQT says: The Dealer needs Nineteen Points, a few more than average. Normally, throwing a 5 Card would be exactly the wrong thing to do here, but it's a lot safer than Toss (7 8). And since we were dealt Two 5 Cards to begin with, throwing one of these 'over the board' should hopefully not get us into *as much* trouble as usual.
glmccuskey
4076 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Monday 9:51 AM
Why keep the four when a 3 cut still gets us 10 points and you can most like live to peg another day.
Coeurdelion
5574 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Monday 10:31 AM
We need 12pts to get out this deal or 10/11pts to likely peg out next hand. I don't think we need to risk 7-8 to increase our chances of 12pts. 5-5-7-J still has 333, 101010, QQQ, KKK = 12 cuts for 10pts, 3S, 10S, QS, KS = 4 cuts for 11pts and of course 55, 6666, JJJ = 9 cuts for 12pts or more. So I'll throw 4-8 as per the majority.
BigFoot Bob
624 votes

Joined: April 2016

Monday 1:16 PM
I just hated to giving the 7-8 to the dealer, so I broke up the hand and went with flush.
Inushtuk1
1465 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Monday 4:11 PM
I went with the flush because it will be harder to read. Meaning I am more likely to peg a few holes, should I come up short, as JQT suggested. I’ll lead my J. I doubt I’ll see a 5 reply. But is a 7 or a 4 too much to expect? Hope not.
Inushtuk1 says: The (5-8) is not so bad with me holding a 7. I hope!
JQT says: Even if the Dealer tossed a 'Pear' of 5 Cards, a veritable 5 Card Salad, we would hope s/he holds all Ten Cards, and thus we may still 'sneak through' with our "Magic Eleven." Pegging two is not as easy as pegging one, however. We might end up at the dreaded (120*-120)!
Inushtuk1 says: Yes, I see where *sometimes*, one can make use of a two-card Magic Eleven as Pone. We just need to lead our X-card. Is there any other way we can make use of our two card eleven? I mean would Pone *have* to lead anX-card to make use of his/her two-card eleven?
Inushtuk1 says: “We might end up at the dreaded (120*-120)!” Danger is my middle name.
Ras2829 says: HiInushtuk1: Think you could conceivably score the 31-2 since holding 4-7-J for 21 by playing any of those three cards and getting a X-point response. The higher count would produce more 31-2 frequently with the lead of the Jack to which opponent responds with a X-pointer. The two card eleven does have a chance with non-dealer if a combined total of 21 is present in the n/d hand.
Hillchem
2890 votes

Joined: April 2015

 
 
 
Monday 6:16 PM
Going for a win here. If my numbers are correct, there are only 17 cards in the deck that give me less than 10 points.