December 9, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by james500
103*-109  ?
42%
30%
8%
8%
7%
2%
0%
0%
Total votes: 142
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:07 AM
With Eighteen Points necessary to WIN as the Dealer, we seem to be in the Driver's Seat today. But our Opponent only needs a Dozen Points, and Pone of course gets First Hand Show. Make PONE *work* for it!

Choices seem to abound today, with a FLUSH if we Toss (3c 6c), or a few other likely choices such as Toss (2 3), and even Toss (3 3). Even Toss (2 7) might be considered by some, although this discard appears to be better if we were Pone and not Dealer.

And Toss (6 6) might even appeal to a few, but let's recall my comments from just a few days ago with regards to "Intrinsic Points" and discarding 'PEARS' when we're the Dealer (Hint: Don't do it!)

Initially I am drawn to the FLUSH, so I will have to consider whether Toss (2 3) can "make up" for the difference in a few 'static' points (it usually can and does). I'm also looking at Toss (3 3) because among the PAIRS we might ever stow in our Crib, this is certainly no slouch.

In fact, the more I look at this arrangement, the more Keep (2 6 6 7) and Toss (3 3) appeals to me. We begin with a 'static' Eight Points, with great opportunities in both the Hand and the Crib. And perhaps most notably is that after we Toss (3 3), we have a fairly safe Pegging Arrangement!

The only "negative" that jumps out at me is the "Negative Delta" resulting from the Deuce we already have in our Hand, probably taking away some chances for growth in our Crib if we throw the two Treys. But these cards are bound to be 'split up' anyway today, and I cannot see avoiding some small drawbacks.

I'll Toss (3 3) and *HOPE* for a Deuce Cut! It didn't happen, but the 5 Card Cut is good for our Hand, and who knows: it may also be good for our Crib if Pone shoved a 4 Card or a 7 Card our way. We always must worry about a 5 Card Cut with Pone in this position however, so we must peg VERY DEFENSIVELY!
JQT says: Since Treys are *key connectors* I do not consider them to be weak discards in the same category as Toss (6 6) or Toss (8 8). But mostly what Toss (3 3) does for us today is establish ourselves with as *SAFE* as possible of a pegging hand.
james500
3924 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Saturday 3:18 AM
Lots of options here, as John has described above. I'd like to try keeping 2-3-3 with the 7 as an escape card.
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 3:23 AM
Decided on tossing 3-3 and holding the hand that has the highest combined average. Now to see what JQT has written!
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 3:53 AM
Embarrassed with riches. I'll go for the double run. It is also interesting to consider this hand as pone.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Andy. If I was pone I’d keep the flush.
Andy (muesli64) says: Agreed
dec
6359 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 4:27 AM
Our situation has all four dynamics involved. Keeping the best shot to hit the main hand the crib. With this keep I see this as the best shot at the most. We might possibly have enough with the cut to do the game hole. However this is not solitaire we have an opponent to consider here especially after that cut. With that five cut I will lead the two (three responses) and hopefully after their response deduce their hand maximum potential and limit their pegging and hopefully bank on the crib for the victory. dec
dec
6359 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 4:28 AM
sorry backwards play off play off period. dec
Inushtuk1
1488 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 5:26 AM
JQT said it all.
JQT says: Our goal here must be to allow MINIMAL PONE PEGGING! Players invariably almost always under-estimate how far they can move as the Dealer in these types of Endgame Scenarios. We must DEFEND during the pegging; even if we do not reach the Finish Line with our Crib. As the Dealer, we now enjoy our Three Counts, and if we must play another deal, during Next Deal, we shall be Pone with First Hand Show. The biggest question today: I don't think it's actually the discard, because it's going to be difficult to beat Toss (3 3). No, the most interesting issue to me is: What do we do if Pone leads ... a 4 Card ... or a 6 Card?! After a 6 Card Lead, there's a risk in PAIRING, not because Pone may have a Trey for (15-2) ... although that *could* be a risk ... but where does it leave us if Pone plays another 6 Card for Six Points?? Sure, we have the 'case' 6 Card, and of course we play it, but then we leave Pone to play on with two cards each remaining and the Count is Twenty-Four and the score is now (117*-115). Yikes: now we still need to peg Four Holes, and Pone only needs to score Six Points in order to WIN, and Pone has displayed Two 6 Cards with a 5 Card on deck! It's simply safer to 'drop' our Deuce on a 6 Card Lead. Don't ever *blindly* PAIR Pone's Lead in such an Endgame Position, even if we're holding two 'matching' cards! Same thing goes for those who held two Treys: it's safer to "Play Off" a Trey Lead with a 7 Card! Homework: It's interesting to ponder what we should respond with after all of the various possible lead cards Pone might throw at us today, regardless of which hand we chose.
james500 says: Fine comments above with regard defensive pegging. If we choose to play 3-3-6-6 there's less chance that any card we play can be paired by Pone, so there's some safety in that. Should they play a 4 or 5 at any stage however, we have no way to escape. For this reason I'd favour keeping the 2 with 6-6-7 or the 7 with 2-3-3.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi JQT. Working on the “homework* holding 2-6-6-7. Yikes is right. And you say this is the SAFEST pegging hand. Wow!
Inushtuk1 says: Not sure what the deadline was for this homework assignment; but here gore. On the A lead I will respond with my 2. Would Pone really lead an A if they had a 3? I agree this could backfire. On the 2 I’ll play the 7. Again not super confident about it. I’d feel much better if Pone led a 3. I’d be all over that with my suited 6. On the 4 lead I will risk my suited 6. There are only three 5’s left. More likely that 4 came from a pair. Again I admit this is dangerous. I’ll play my 7 on the 5 lead. If Pone had a 3 why didn’t it get led? Again, not really happy about that lead, especially with one on the deck. Now we come to the 6 lead. I’ll pair that sucker. The 2 reply is not that safe. He/she may have 6-7-8-9. That’s more likely here with us holding 6-6. On the 7, and 8 leads i will play my 2. More confident about those replies. On the 9 lead I will play my 6. If he had a 6 he would have led it Pone must have 9-9-?-? On the 10, and J leads I will play my 2. Maybe Pone has 6-9-10-J, and is leading from the top of the hand to save her 6-9 for last. But the 6 is safer on a Q, or K lead. That’s it for me. Had a long day at the Main Tourney in Portland. In a 20-game format my score was only 19 and 9. Qualifying for a Main continues to elude me. I’ll do better tomorrow. Good luck to all.
JQT says: Enjoyed reading your thought process. Endgames are exceedingly complex, and the usual biases can often go out the window. I try to base Opponent's Cards more on WHAT HAS ALREADY BEEN PLAYED in such situations, and less on what I EXPECT THEM TO HOLD. Being observant is crucial. I don't think I would PAIR that 6 Card Lead: We still know too little about what our Opponent is holding! And we can probably afford to give up two or three points here, but NOT SIX!
Gougie00
5731 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 5:34 AM
This way, 33, I think.

I may have opted for the flush if the other guy was the dealer. Worrisome is the 5 starter with the pone 12 holes away. It turns me from playing offensive to defensive.
Sgt Pegger
279 votes

Joined: July 2017
 
 
 
Saturday 9:40 AM
Ok so I am never one to follow the crowd and I thought this was a reasonably EZ throw. I have peggers that hit anything that is cut. I didn't give myself much of crib toss but frankly that may not even be counted. Give me a 2,3,6,7 flush any day!
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Saturday 1:18 PM
In this position I believe we must have a good hand and crib, I think to do this we must give ourselves the chance of a double-run in the hand with a good discard. The flush gives us a good chance of 11/12pts but the 3-6 discard is poor (est. 4pts Schell: 3.81). Initially I leapt to the 2-3 but meeting the above requirements are:

3-6-6-7: 4pts + 6¾pts (Schell: 7.00) = 10¾pts

2-6-6-7: 6pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.94) = 11¾pts

2-3-3-7: 4pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.76) = 9¾pts

2-3-3-7 has all th tenth cards to make 8pts but 10pts is its maximum (except for 33). I'll go with the highest total here. We start with 1pt more than 3-6-6-7 and we have 16 chances of a dozen points or more with 222, 5555, 66, 777, 8888. With 3-3 averaging nearly 6pts (as per Schell) this may well give us the 18pts we need. I'll throw the 3-3.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 1:42 PM
At 103*-109 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Net
Optimal___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W1 %____W2 %
2-6-6-7___8.87+0.89+5.55=15.31____37.9____58.2
2-3-3-7___8.09+1.26+5.42=14.77____24.2____43.6
3C-6-6-7__6.65+1.07+6.84=14.55____32.3____53.4
2-3D-6D-7_9.59+1.24+3.31=14.14____20.0____44.9
3-3-6-6___9.39+0.63+3.40=13.42____19.1____56.1

Optimal______L1 %____L2 %
2-6-6-7______31.1____30.1
2-3-3-7______42.3____47.3
3C-6-6-7_____32.4____36.0
2-3D-6D-7____39.9____46.8
3-3-6-6______26.5____36.3

2-6-6-7 is 0.54pt best for expected averages and is very greatly best for Win %s. It is also best for Loss %s. Both of these take account of the critical end of game board position. So I'll select 3-3 to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Guest says: give me averages and a litle luck any day dec
Ras2829
5155 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:10 PM
A distant echo to JQT and Inushtuk1.HalscribCLX has the strategy just right with optimal, optimal, def. Once seeing the starter card, knowing that I have that guaranteed peg, 12 points in hand, and an assured two in the crib (15 points for sure) will play of the lead. It's likely the 5 on the deck gives me enough to go out on this hand. If not , just might find myself in hole 120. Opponent needs 12 on this deal to win. What are chances of that? That's one in four. Note that HalscribCLX shows that we have 96.1% (37.9+58.2) chance to win over next two deals. Exercise caution on the pegs this deal and we ought to win the game. Some careless pegging here could put opponent out.
Ras2829 says: BTW interesting to note that 2-3-3-7 is within 1/2 point in combined value though starting with 4 points gains added value by any cut.
spin121
299 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 3:15 PM
Good cards to have in this position. Agree with all the usual suspects.