January 12, 2018
*** This hand was suggested by jqt
|Total votes: 157|
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Joined: April 2016
Friday 3:07 AM
I am going to make the dealer work for it.
Joined: March 2016
Friday 3:09 AM
Looked at tossing 3-7 and 9-9. Both hands are weighted (26 cards) at 4 or 6 points while we are needing 8 points to avoid a skunk. After the cut of a king we need to peg 2 points. This hand is more offensive and has 17 cuts vs 16 cuts that improve the value of the hand to an expected 8 points. Looks like we can try to avoid a skunk but lose the game.
Joined: April 2008
Friday 3:25 AM
Anything goes at this point. dec
Joined: October 2008
Friday 4:10 AM
Games in which one player struggles to reach beyond Hole 90 can seem boring, and be like a real "blowout" to many newer players, but they often soon learn that reaching Hole 91 can be the most important (and costly) games they shall ever play.
If you enjoy playing Cribbage for stakes in which a SKUNK gives you an additional number of points or cash (often players agree it is DOUBLE), then that gap between Hole 90 and Hole 91 suddenly becomes the most important place on the board!
For example, let's say you agree to play for stakes of $25.00 per game, and $2.00 per point, and DOUBLE for SKUNKS. This means, if you lose at (120-121), or by One Point, it means you would lose $25.00 (for the loss of the Game Itself) plus $2.00 (for the loss of the One Point) or you would owe $27.00 for that loss.
This stays linear right up to (91-121), where you have lost by Thirty Points, which means you would lose $25.00 (for the loss of the Game Itself) plus $2.00 times 30 equals $60.00 (for the loss of the Thirty Points) or you would owe $85.00 for that loss.
But now: what happens if you lose by an Additional Point (90-121), where you have lost by Thirty-One Points? This means you would lose $25.00 (for the loss of the Game Itself) plus $2.00 times 31 equals $62.00 (for the loss of the Thirty Points) or $87.00, but now, this all gets DOUBLED because it was a SKUNK, and therefore you would owe $174.00 for that loss!
This step-function for SKUNKS is even more pronounced when you agree to play for stakes in which a SKUNK equals the Win (or Loss) of TWO GAMES: thus, if you play "best of three" and lose the first two games by thirty or fewer points, all it takes is ONE SKUNK victory to entirely 'equal the playing field'!
Therefore, whether you play stakes for money or merely for game points, attaining Hole 91, or preventing your Opponent from attaining Hole 91, is very often the most crucial (and expensive) piece of "real estate" on the Cribbage Board! Learn to fight for it!
Joined: March 2008
Friday 4:45 AM
Do I really have any chance to win? Am I really obligated to cross the skunk for the sake of all the other players in the room? My answer is no and no. I kept the 99J to hope for a 10 cut. Lead a 9.
Joined: March 2016
Friday 4:57 AM
I hold four different ranks of cards so should be more pegging power. A few cuts get me within 1 and a few more within 2 of going over line. Have 6 now I'll lead my Jack!!
Joined: July 2016
Friday 6:41 AM
Iíll keep all 4 of my key connectors. I donít know if this is best for the most cuts to improve to within one or not. But it makes sense to me. Iíll lead my 3. Dealer is not likely to play a 5 on my J lead. But s/he may dump a 5 or a lone J early.
Joined: June 2016
Friday 7:24 AM
Keeping the 9-9 may make you feel better, but I see no advantage in holding on to them. I still have 4 points before the cut. More cuts will increase the hand without the 9's. Ironically the only cuts that do not help this hand are AAAA,99.
The King brings the hand up to 6 points. I'll lead the 3 and hope for the best.
Joined: June 2013
Friday 7:49 AM
Reasonable chance to score eight points since cuts of 2,3,4,5,6,7,8 and X all improve my hand score.
Joined: November 2014
Friday 8:35 AM
I need 8 points. Tossing 3-7 means a cut of AAAA5556666TTTTJJJ = 18 cuts gives it to me. Tossing 99 means a cut of 3334H5556H777 = 11 cuts gives it to me (4 heart, 6 heart). Anything else I need to peg...
Joined: November 2008
Friday 10:48 AM
RAS hardly ever plays to get out of a skunk. Play for the win! Does that seem possible here? I need 38 points to win and dealer needs 7 with first count on the next deal. If dealer had one of those "south African bishop" hands (Tu-Tu)with the guaranteed peg would need only two on the next deal with first count. So it's avoid the skunk or reduce the number of minus points on spread. Not a good place to be. Given that and knowing that I have six points after seeing the starter card, will lead the Jack and keep the gappers (3-5 and 5-7) intact. Non-dealer average pegs are a total of two and dealer will be playing off our opening lead. So it's off., off., off., for me. Play BOLD and lose BIG!!
Joined: October 2007
Friday 3:06 PM
We need 8pts or 7pts + 1pt (or 6pts + 2pts, etc.) to avoid the skunk. I believe we need to start with 4pts:
3-5-7-J: Improves to 7/8+pts with 333, 4444, 555, 6666, 777, JJJ = 20 cuts.
5-9-9-J: Improves with AAAA, 555, 6666, 99, 10101010, JJJ = 20 cuts.
With 5-9-9-J all 20 cuts are for 8pts or more so I'll throw the 3-7.
Joined: February 2008
Friday 3:56 PM
At 83-114* aiming to avoid the skunk I'll play Offense. The Chances of Getting Over the Skunk Line are:
3-5-7-J has the best chance of avoiding the skunk so I'll select 9-9 to discard.
After the K cut I'll lead the 3 and play Offense:
Joined: October 2008
Friday 4:01 PM
(83-114*) (3c 5h 7c 9s 9h Jh)
January 12, 2018 - jqt -
Just as we saw about a week and a day ago on Jan 4, 2018, we don't exactly require the MOST points today.
Rather, we require EIGHT POINTS ... to avert a SKUNK.
There may be a difference between EIGHT and THE MOST, as we saw last week. With any of the top hand choices today, we begin with only up to Four Points, so we require another Four MORE Points to avert the SKUNK.
As I said on Jan 4, 2018, I am an advocate of "mapping out" these particular kinds of hands, in order to develop a sense for how cards might work together. Of course, with the Dealer at Hole 114, when trying to avert the SKUNK, we should probably not concern ourselves at all with any dangers of what we discard today.
The most popular choice (below) of Keep (5 9 9 J) and Toss (3 7) does not actually produce the highest Expected Average today, and 'chimes in' at 6.65 Points, but is exceeded slightly by Keep (3 5 7 J) and Toss (9 9), which shall average 6.78 Points, and finally, Keep (3 5 7 9) and Toss (9 J), should generate an Expected Average of 4.96 Points.
The Jack is definitely the most mysterious card in Cribbage, and it is almost 'creepy' how that single extra point for "Nobs" can 'skew' the expectations and thus our results.
And so now, let's look deeper, and let's especially focus upon at those numbers of Cuts that will produce anywhere from 5 Points up to 8 Points or more, and thus would require us to peg respectively: Three Holes, or Two Holes, or One Hole, or NONE AT ALL. We should recall that as Pone, we shall usually peg approximately 2.1 Holes, although in this scenario, the Dealer might be doing everything in his or her power to reduce this!
Keep (5 9 9 J) and Toss (3 7) has 20 Cuts that produce 8 or more points, and has 22 Cuts that produce 7 points, and has 28 Cuts that produce 6 points, and has 33 Cuts that produce 5 points.
Keep (3 5 7 J) and Toss (9 9) has 14 Cuts that produce 8 or more points, and has 25 Cuts that produce 7 points, and has 40 Cuts that produce 6 points, and has 41 Cuts that produce 5 points.
Keep (3 5 7 9) and Toss (9 J) has 3 Cuts that produce 8 or more points, and has 11 Cuts that produce 7 points, and has 17 Cuts that produce 6 points, and has 21 Cuts that produce 5 points.
So if we assume ZERO pegging, Toss (3 7) does seem like the better choice. But is this a valid assumption to make, when we know that Pone averages to peg about 2.1 holes? Let's instead look carefully at the odds if we can peg One or Two Holes today:
Suddenly, this gives Keep (3 5 7 J) and Toss (9 9) between about a 43% greater chance of reaching 6 Points, and about a 14% greater chance of reaching 7 Points, which would of course then require that we peg either Two Points, or One Point, respectively.
It's often a "Special Case" like this in a close Cribbage Scenario, when we don't need the MOST points, we need a SPECIFIC NUMBER of points! You'll likely never be able to calculate such an intricate series of possible Cuts 'over the board,' but just by looking at a number of such hand mappings, especially those with a JACK in them, you just may develop a 'sense' for when such card combinations, along with a few points pegging, can 'deliver us from the evil' of getting SKUNKED!
Keep (3c 5h 7c Jh) and Toss (9h 9s)
03x10=030 - 555 (3 Cuts = 10 Points)
02x09=018 - 3h, 7h (5 Cuts >= 9 Points)
09x08=072 - 33, 4h, 6h, 77, JJJ (14 Cuts >= 8 Points)
11x07=077 - 2h, 444, 666, 8h, Th, Qh, Kh (25 Cuts >= 7 Points)
15x06=090 - 222, 888, TTT, QQQ, KKK (40 Cuts >= 6 Points)
01x05=005 - Ah (41 Cuts >= 5 Points)
05x04=020 - AAA, 99 (5 Cuts = 4 Points, NO HELP)
Expected Average is: 312 DIV 46 is 6.783 Points
Keep (5h 9s 9h Jh) and Toss (3c 7c)
01x13=013 - Th (1 Cut = 13 Points)
03x12=036 - TTT (4 Cuts >= 12 Points)
02x09=018 - Ah, 6h (6 Cuts >= 9 Points)
14x08=112 - AAA, 555, 666, 99, JJJ (20 Cuts >= 8 Points)
02x07=014 - Qh, Kh (22 Cuts >= 7 Points)
06x06=036 - QQQ, KKK (28 Cuts >= 6 Points)
05x05=025 - 2h, 3h, 4h, 7h, 8h (33 Cuts >= 5 Points)
13x04=052 - 222, 33, 444, 77, 888 (13 Cuts = 4 Points, NO HELP)
Expected Average is: 306 DIV 46 is 6.652 Points
Keep (3c 5h 7c 9h) and Toss (9s Jh)
03x08=024 - 333 (3 Cuts = 8 Points)
08x07=056 - 6666, 8888 (11 Cuts >= 7 Points)
06x06=036 - 555, 777 (17 Cuts >= 6 Points)
04x05=020 - 4444 (21 Cuts >= 5 Points)
21x04=084 - AAAA, 99, TTTT, JJJ, QQQQ, KKKK (42 Cuts >= 4 Points)
04x02=008 - 2222 (4 Cuts = 2 Points, NO HELP)
Expected Average is: 228 DIV 46 is 4.957 Points