January 19, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)
94-96*  ?
52%
22%
16%
4%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 161
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Friday 3:17 AM
Andy usually posts great 'positional' puzzles, and today is no disappointment!

At a score of (94-96*), we are unfortunately backed into a veritable corner, and so we have the burden of looking for a *defensive discard* from among what appear to be some very non-defensive-looking cards.

I am looking mostly at Toss (3 6) and Toss (3 8) here. I don't quite care about the damage done to our Double RUN today.

Because if we did indeed Toss (2 3), we're essentially "shooting ourselves in the face" in order to hold a hand that most likely wouldn't ever matter, even if we did Cut our way to Twenty Points!

Which brings me to the "Never Our Best Two" Rule of Cribbage: Never, ever give an Opponent who is Dealing from close to (or especially beyond!) a 'par' hole your BEST TWO CARDS!

In the final analysis, I'll select Toss (3 6) unsuited, of course, and I think after that seemingly unhelpful Jack Cut, I shall lead our 8 Card.

Let's hope the Jack Cut won't help our Opponent too much, because our fate here mostly rests upon how far the Hand plus Crib carries our Opponent.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi JQT. Am I correct to presume you mean *just* beyond a ‘par’ hole? For example, the further beyond the ‘par’ hole Dealer is, the less defensive we become, right?
JQT says: It's complicated: If our Dealer Opponent were significantly further ahead, yeah, I'd probably go into a "Pegs to the Wall" *offense* mode, simply in order to attempt (while probably losing the game) to reduce the Spread Points during the loss. However, if the Dealer here were just slightly further ahead, say at Hole 99, I would do all I could to "clamp down" even further, and maintain as *defensive* a posture as possible! As RAS often indicates, we should virtually ALWAYS attempt to WIN! And while we are Pone, what we have the *most* control over is s-l-o-w-i-n-g down our Opponent by both executing a Defensive Discard and by Pegging Defensively as well.
Inushtuk1 says: Thanks JQT.
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Friday 3:19 AM
There is only a little over one point difference in expected averages between tossing 2-3 and 3-6 to dealer. I chose the safer toss of 3-6 valued at 4.81 points rather than 2-3 valued at 7.52 points. The cut of a Jack gives dealer two points right off and would have also given him 2 points to start with the 2-3 if I had chosen to toss these two cards.
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Friday 4:49 AM
Position story their three frist counts here to our one. Not close enough for a cut to end game or last bar possibilities So defense on leading the two and playing off. dec
james500
3923 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Friday 5:26 AM
2-3 is too risky, and 2-8 does too much damage to my hand with no real guarantee of nullifying the crib.
I don't think there'll be much difference in the level of danger posed by 3-6 or 3-8 in my opponent's crib; I think 2-6-7-8 is a better hand than 2-6-7-7 though, so 3-6 it is.
The 2 will be the safest lead, but I'd lead the 7 to break up the run, keeping the 2 as an escape card.
spin121
299 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Friday 5:47 AM
my first inkling was 2 6 6 7 then I read a few posts and agreed 3 6 7 8 was better. Even with my best cut holding 6 6 7 8 I might have a heck of a time pegging out before opponent's first count so no way 2 3 here.
spin121 says: 2 6 7 8 rather
spin121 says: 2 6 7 8 rather
glmccuskey
4101 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Friday 5:53 AM
I’ll lead the eight and peg it defensively.
Gougie00
5730 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Friday 6:14 AM
*Me First*

I would hate to break my hand up, cut a 6-7-8 and end up losing by a few points. Damn the torpedoes! Full speed ahead! (followed by a loud bang?)

Jazzselke
2586 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Friday 6:53 AM
Interesting that 2678 is in third place, but chosen by 7 of the first 8 commenters.
At 94 with 7 sure points and dealer at 96, no reason to throw 23.
JQT says: My guess is that those people who both "Vote and Post" here on the 'Daily Cribbage Hand' site are much more dedicated 'Aficionados of Cribbage' than those who merely "Vote" in a sort of drive-by, "clickity-clickity-clack" fashion, without ever posting any comments. It's good to have any serious voting taking place here, so I am not in any way criticizing those who do not post; some of these people may simply prefer to remain anonymous, or some may not have the time and energy to log in every day. However, those people who do take the time to both analyze, log in, and then post their written comments, and do so each (or nearly every) day are probably, at least in the aggregate, much more dedicated players of the 'This Game Of Ours' that we call Cribbage. In fact, now that Matt probably has Ten Years of Solid Cribbage Discarding Data from his exemplary creation of this "Hand of the Day" site, perhaps some enterprising young (or not-so-young...) individual will take the time and effort necessary to compile the Total Number of all Votes (TNV) compiled here during this ten years, and then compute the Average Votes Per Day (AVD), and also the Average Votes With Postings Per Day (AVDP), and also why not compute the Percentage (say, when compared to the answers given by Halscrib) of purported "Correct" Votes Percentage Per Day of those who Vote and Post (CVP%), as opposed to the Correct Votes Percentage of those who simply Vote (CV%) without ever posting any comments to explain and/or "back up" their assertions. Or, we could just proceed as usual and continue to enjoy the site in that state of pleasant "bliss" of not knowing.
Guest says: I vote most days but have never commented, until today, as I am a casual player. I do read most of the comments to learn from others and feel that it has improved my game.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Friday 8:46 AM
I just could not pull the trigger on a 2-3 discard. Why give the dealer an extra 2 points when he is already in a good position. At present the Jack doesn't help either of us.

I'll lead the 7. It will either generate some pegging or it will help determine what cards the dealer is holding.
Inushtuk1
1487 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Friday 8:57 AM
I’m with the gang of 8. I like the (3-6) unsuited, as only 3’s, 6’s, and 9’s help the crib; and we are holding one of those 6’s. I’ll lead the 8 to keep the 6-7 five-card trap. But I wouldn’t argue against the 2 lead as per Ras’s videos, or the 7 lead to break up my run.
Inushtuk1 says: I’m not at all happy I cut the Dealer that J. Now s/he is dealing deep in her/his CPZ. This changes things a bit. The 7 would be best on total defense, and worthwhile if I hadn’t cut the J. Playing a bit more optimal now with the 8, lead to preserve my five-card trap.
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Friday 9:06 AM
What's the use in dealing from 104-110 after keep 6-6-7-8 if your opponent is pone past 110?

Earlier in the game, I'd be much more tempted to gamble.

But fourth street requires more discipline.
JQT says: This is a very accurate assessment, horus93, in my humble opinion. I think maybe the easiest way for those who might insist on Toss (2 3) here is to simply set up the given score (94-96*) on a real-live Cribbage Board, and then merely 'play out' this deal with either average hand scores, or maybe even use a deck of cards and try using the known cards as given, or perhaps even play out a few 'sample' hands. Remember: as Pone, we shall average to move about Ten Points Total, and our Opponent, the Dealer, will tend to move an average of around Sixteen Points Total. After each test deal, then note the score, and 'swap' those projected totals, as our Opponent becomes the Next Pone (with FIRST HAND SHOW!), and we of course become the Next Dealer. Do the work!
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Friday 10:11 AM
This is one of those Kobiashi Maru tests. I gave serious consideration to holding the 2,6,7,8 for defense, but believe the dealer gets to count first next and will probably win, even w/o giving him 2,3. I kept the 6,6,7,8 in hopes for a double double. Clearly, I'm in the minority (of commentors not voters) here and will take JQT's advice and play this out a few times.
JQT says: Nice to see your post, dgergens. Your rationale for *offense* and thus retaining the Double RUN is perhaps soundly based, especially after we see the Dealer gets that 'Added Boost' of Two Holes for 'His Heels' upon the Jack Cut. Of course, we don't know that Cut until *after* we discard! But furthermore, right on up until our Opponent is knocking on Hole 100, I think it's still worth a shot to play some aggressive DEFENSE. Let's see how Halscrib digests this one later today. Regarding your vote: Don't forget, first Log In, then CLICK on the red and green 'Hand of the Day' text to make sure you're pointing at the plain page without results, then select your two cards, and click on the "To Opponent's Crib" button, and THEN scroll down to enter your comments in the box and click to enter them. You'll get it; read my instructions from yesterday as it may help. In fact, if you wish, log in again today, and do as I have described, and try to enter your cards and vote again if you like - it will boost your total Vote Count by one, but it's worth it if it helps you to understand the 'quirky' card selection and voting process.
Ras2829
5154 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Friday 10:24 AM
Since am of the opinion as are others that holding for the big hand won't put me down the board far enough to matter and the 2/3 discard with a crib average on the other side of the board of 7.524 would likely assure a win for my opponent with first count coming up. Since have opted for def., def., def., will break the 3-card sequence with the first card played, lead the 7 and retain the 2 for an escape card. If playing offense would have led the deuce. Pay to win and this approach gives the best chance for that.
Ras2829 says: Didn't really mean "pay to win" although that might be the surest way to gain victory here.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. Upon further reflection, after reading your post, and JQT’s reply to my question in his post; I now think the 7 is the better lead. Leading the 8 to keep the five-card trap seems like a low %age play. The reason being that a frequent reply to the 8 will be a K, Q, or a J. Now what? My 2 makes the count (20) and Dealer invariably dumps another X-card for (30-1). Only if Dealer has 5-5 remaining will I trap a 5. And if Dealer knew what he was doing he would have dumped his first 5 on my 8 lead, but not so on my 7 lead. Oh well. Back to the drawing board.
Inushtuk1 says: More to the point; if I’m going to end up playing my 7 on any X-card reply *anyway*, trying for the GO, and subsequent (31-2) with my 6; I might as well just forget about the venerable five-card trap to begin with.
JQT says: I've said that even if our Dealer Opponent were at Hole 100, I would probably still attempt to put up a defensive stand here as Pone starting at Hole 94. But how far do we take this *defensive* stand? I'm curious: At what hole shall we relinquish 'Victory' to our Dealer Opponent here, RAS, Inushtuk1, and others? If the Dealer were at somewhere at around Hole 103 or Hole 105, I suppose we should probably just go all-out offense as Pone to simply reduce spread points. I was taught to always try to win, and yet I suppose that sometimes "winning" is "losing by a lesser amount." On the other hand, I'll never forget the next-to-last game I played against my Father and Cribbage Mentor, during the week in February 2009 when he quit going in for his dialysis treatments, and so I knew these Cribbage games would be our last session. I was so far ahead in this particular game, I thought of letting up a bit, something I had never done before, or had never even entertained the thought of doing; and yet I persisted in pushing on in what looked to be a certain SKUNK, a drubbing of that very ill old man, my Dad. And then, as you might guess, the fortunes reversed, and I obtained the proverbial Two-Point Hand and Zero-Point-Crib as the Dealer, pegged my lousy One Hole, and I LOST that game! We played one more game after that, and it would be our last. I'm glad I didn't let up. I also played an aging player and former ACC Tournament Winner who was in a skilled nursing facility not too far from my apartment. We played almost every day for over two years, between 2010 and 2012. We generally played for a buck a game, double for SKUNKS, and we were pretty even. When he could no longer shuffle, I brought him an automatic card shuffler, and we managed to wear out and destroy three of these contraptions in quick succession! I used to bring Old Stanley an occasional cold beer, and he took an occasional sip of whiskey from an ancient flask; but during that last year, sadly he was hardly even eating any more, and he would sometimes doze off or drop his cards, and of course his Win Rate began to plummet. While I didn't proceed to continue to collect any financial winnings as his health deteriorated, I never changed my style of play, and I never let up on him in any way. It seems most respectful to always play our best, and one day soon, I'll be dropping those cards and dozing off, too. And so shall each one of us.
Inushtuk1 says: But then again, the 8 lead allows Dealer to dump a 5, and our 2 counter-reply is the best defensive play, and scores (15-2) for us. Oh what a wicked web we weave. This is a particularly complex hand for the Pone I believe.
Ras2829 says: Once I settled for defense at time of discard, breaking up my double run and a potential 20-point hand am concerned with minimizing dealer pegs and am giving up on my potential for pegging. Given that breaking the upper sequence and ditching the lone deuce early in play are the two most defensive things I can do. In other situations would lead the 8 if playing optimal or offense as would give me chance to trap a five spot with 6-7 as pointed out by Inushtuk1. Here zero pegs will be fine with me if can limit dealer to that guaranteed peg.
Inushtuk1 says: Thanks Ras. Sorry to be so picky, but in your first post you said on offense you would lead the 2 as per the old videos. But just above you say on offense you would lead the 8. Can you clarify further. This is a particularly ambiguous hand as far as lead card in my opinion.
Ras2829 says: Of course if playing optimal oroffense with 2-6-7-8, that JQT favorite of "sweet sixteen" often scores pegs for 15-2 or 31-2 and with cagey players both. On the 8 lead, many old-timers will dump a lone 5 spot making the count 13, the deuce plays then for 15-2, count generally advances to 25 on which we score 31-2 with the 6 spot. Four unanswered pegs by non-dealer represents a pegging coups in the pegging game which is so dominated by the dealer in most situations.
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: My final shot here is covered in your post. Hopefully by now I've got more confused that just you. Sorry, that's the nature of this game!
Inushtuk1 says: Yes, and that 2-6-8 “sweet sixteen” could work leading from the bottom end as well. Thus: 2(2)-5(7)-8(15-2)-X(25)-6(31-2). That’s another reason I find this a particularly ‘tricky’ hand.
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Friday 4:09 PM
Do we keep 10pts and throw 2-3 or throw 3-6 or 3-8 and keep 7pts or 6pts?:

6-6-7-8: 10pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.33) = 2½pts

2-6-7-8: 7pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.87) = 2pts

2-6-6-7: 6pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.05) = 1pt

Potential:

6-6-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 5555, 66, 777, 888, 9999 = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 14/16/17/20pts with AAAA, 222, 66, 777, 888 = 15 cuts.

2-6-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 222, 5555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 24 cuts = 52.2% up to 10/11/14/16pts with 222, 5555, 66, 777, 888, 999 = 18 cuts.

2-6-6-7: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 5555, 66, 777, 888, 9999 = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 10/12/14pts with 222, 5555, 66, 777, 888 = 15 cuts.

Pegging:

Playing Offense I think 6-6-7-8 will peg best and if Defense 2-6-7-8 and 2-6-6-7.

Position:

We're only two short of positional hole so I will play Defense.

Summary:

The potential increase for all the hands is similar but 6-6-7-8 starts with ½pts more than 2-6-7-8 but in this position we do not need to risk the 2-3 so I'll just hold the 7pts and throw 3-6.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Friday 4:24 PM
At 94-96* playing a Safe strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand___Pegs____Crib___Total___W1 %___W2 %
6-6-7-8___13.04+(-2.87)+(-7.52)=2.65____0.3____22.8
2-6H-7-8___9.30+(-2.85)+(-4.15)=2.30____0.0____25.8
2-6-6-7____8.74+(-3.17)+(-4.42)=1.15____0.0____23.6

Defense______L1 %___L2 %
6-6-7-8______9.2____64.0
2-6H-7-8_____3.4____45.9
2-6-6-7______3.0____45.6

6-6-7-8 has the best dynamic expected average by 0.35pt over 2-6-7-8 but has a huge chance of losing because of the very risky 2-3 discard and also a lower Win %. 2-6-7-8 has the best Win %s by slight amount although 2-6-6-7 has the lowest Loss %s by a very small amount over 2-6-7-8. Even so I'll choose based on the Win %s in this critical board position as the Win/Loss %s take account of this. So I'll select 3-6D to discard.

After the J cut I'll lead the 8 and play Optimally:

Lead_____Net Pegging Pts.
8_____________(-0.99)
7_____________(-1.04)
2_____________(-1.05)
6_____________(-1.52)