January 21, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by ras2829
0*-0  ?
67%
13%
12%
2%
2%
1%
0%
Total votes: 143
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 3:12 AM
I've said it on a few occasions: and that is that I think Toss (A A) is one of the more under-valued discards we may make to our Own Crib.

This doesn't mean I prefer Toss (A A) as a Dealer Discard, or that I even think it's a very powerful Dealer Discard.

But it does mean that if we "go by the discard charts" in which Schell for instance gives Toss (A A) a crib Value of around 5.38 Points, that I believe this is perhaps not valued quite high enough.

RAS' empirical data places Toss (A A) at 5.51 Points, which is a bit more "on target" I think, but we may notice that it still doesn't quite 'cut the mustard' and make an appearance on his "disparities" list.

I'm willing to 'peg' the value of Toss (A A) at closer to 6 Points! Thus, I would rank Toss (A A) closer to both Toss (2 2) and Toss (6 6), and yet not quite so high as Toss (3 3).

And so we can "Roll the Snake-Eyes Dice" today with Toss (A A), or we can Toss (J J), or we can retain both PAIRS in our Hand and awkwardly Toss (8 Q) into our Crib today. We could also get 'quirky' and Toss (J Q) I suppose, but let's not go there!

I could hardly fault anyone for throwing those Jacks instead. We could maybe peg a bundle here with that A-A-8 construct in our Hand as the Dealer. But I think we're just as likely to 'stumble' into either a Ten Cut or a King Cut and therefore maybe 'snag' a Double RUN!

One of the things I suppose that maybe harms both the value and the reputation of Toss (A A) as a Dealer Discard is NOT doing it during hands such as these, where it might very well be the thing that HELPS US MOST!
JQT says: And also, let's not forget that while we may feel that we're missing out on pegging with those Two Aces, there's a moderate chance here that by saving our Two Jacks, we may be able to set up a clever "Rattle Trap" for Seven (unanswered) Points while 'wrapping up' the pegging!
james500
3924 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Sunday 3:23 AM
I'll resist the "hopenosis" this morning, and discard the Jacks.

Queen reply to any X lead.
dec
6359 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 3:33 AM
Going to absorb some numbers this morning maybe this is the low hand during a game that can help change its outcome. I see a trip potential in the pegging here. dec
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 4:01 AM
I just like the aces with the jacks and toss 8-Q which doesn't seem to fit with the hand. Starts with four points and has a potential for 13 points. Aces to our crib ranks #7 to our crib, I believe.
polynumeral
4534 votes

Joined: December 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 4:05 AM
late in the game I would keep the peggers. Early in the game they are going to the crib
polynumeral says: I understand that the 6,7 today may show due to a non refreshed cache but just noticing over last few days some weird permutations appearing i.e 4 x 2's. How does that happen
polynumeral says: I understand that the 6,7 today may show due to a non refreshed cache but just noticing over last few days some weird permutations appearing i.e 4 x 2's. How does that happen
Guest says: Tommy two times
BigFoot Bob
624 votes

Joined: April 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 4:14 AM
I am keeping a chance to cut a double run.
horus93
1282 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Sunday 5:49 AM
Bad hand, anything else would balk my own crib crib, so I think this is the best I can do. As has been said already A-A is a fairly good toss. I guess this an instance of Ras' Small Hand Rule. I don't see keeping the aces as pegging well enough to justify spoiling my crib.

On the other hand, toss 8-Q is only .5 short on expected averages. Maybe the aces would make up that difference in pegging, so this one might be more of a toss-up.

With that cut I guess I would play defensively. I'm not going far this hand so the best I can do is hold pone back.
horus93 says: Actually offensive pegging, since we're seriously underperforming here, a realistic score next hand might be 5-10*, a small positional deficit, so with that expectation I'll try to pick up points.
Gougie00
5731 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 5:49 AM
Keeping the cluster together. Maybe the AA will catch something in the crib.

Since I look like I'm falling short of 15, I'll peg where possible.
Guest says: AA, i belong, oooops wrong AA
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Sunday 6:32 AM
Why wouldn't I??!!
Guest says: Exactly! If we Keep (A A 8 Q) and Toss (J J), what Cut are we hoping to get?! Perhaps we wish for a 6 Card Cut? Okay, that's four cards. Nothing else would help that mess; nothing that would not help Keep (8 J J Q) and Toss (A A) even MORE, that is! The fact is, when we 'split' the cards in this fashion and Toss (A A), now Eight Cuts (TTTT, KKKK), Cuts that would have otherwise not done a thing, can really help us. We've DOUBLED our prospective helpful Cuts. And what about the Crib? Can Toss (A A) actually out-perform Toss (J J)? It actually does so and does it very consistently! These two Dealer Discards are ranked virtually as identical equals, but the Jack Discard PAIR gets artificially *boosted* by half a point due to the 50% chance of obtaining His Nobs, which incidentally is a half point we're going to get ANYWAY, no matter where we 'stuff' those Two Jacks. What discards from Pone can help Toss (J J)? Well, we have (T-Q, Q-K, ?-J, 5-?) etc. And what can help Toss (A A)? Okay, now we have (A-?, 3-X, 4-X, 6-8), and the list continues, especially after we include that third card, the Cut. Toss (A A) has *many more* ways for us to strike pay dirt! Its reputation for being a weak Dealer Discard might indeed come from the ironic notion that we can (see jethrotulll's comment below) often 'get away with' little damage after pitching this same Toss (A A) to our Opponent. Interesting!
JQT says: (above guest: - jqt - )
Inushtuk1 says: And I don’t see why people are giving up on the double run open at both ends, that includes both a J Trap, and the possibility of catching a stray 10 or K besides.
jethrotulll
298 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 9:00 AM
Ya, I'm not buying it. A-A is a horrible discard and I would prefer throwing into pone's in a lot of circumstances. I'll throw J-J and hope pone threw a K-Q or even Q-10, both of which are quite common discards.
Inushtuk1
1488 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 9:01 AM
Yes, why wouldn’t he?! I mean I.

What a terrible cut. Supposing we *do* have the average 6 in our crib. That’s still only 9 known points. And it might be only 5 known points. We’re going to have to play defense leaning towards optimal here. We have the J trap; but if Pone leads a J we will have to pair the J, and we may be the one getting rattled. But that’s the play. The odds are Pone does not have the ‘case’ J. I hope!
JQT says: It's not a bad Cut for that 'ghost' player who keeps on retaining those four Deuces of Clubs! (I wonder what he discarded?) If I'm not mistaken, this 'ghost' guy now has Twenty-Four Points! Hey, if that Cut had been a 9 of Clubs, then our 'Deuce Club Ghost' would have attained ... Twenty-Five Points! And we thought this wasn't even possible! It's like me believing you aren't watching hockey right now... : - )
Inushtuk1 says: On the K lead I’ll play the 8 to keep the J-J-Q intact. On the Q lead I’ll pair *that* X-card as well, hoping it came from Q-5, and not Q-Q. On the 10 lead I’ll play the Q. Same thing on the 9 lead. Pairing the 8 lead. Have to risk it again. Often when pairing an opening lead, especially a mid-card lead you do exactly what Pone *doesn’nt* want. But I’ll play away with my Q on a 7 lead to avoid giving him/her an easy run. On the 6 lead I’ll play my J. There are only two left. But still, a 6 often comes from a 6-9-10-J. So tt’s close between the J and the Q response. On the 5 lead play the J. That’s the X-card least likely to be paired. I’m not keeping the J trap in this case. I still have the J-Q to trap a stray 10 or K. On the 4 and 3 leads playing my J. It’s difficult to know whether keeping the J trap or the J-Q intact is best here. Wish I could see through the back of her/his cards. On the 2 lead I play the 8 to keep the J-J-Q intact. And finally on the A lead I play the J, enticing his/her J if possible.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi JQT. LOL. I see only Twenty Points in our ‘ghost’ player’s hand. Unless you mean s/he tossed (3-3) in the crib. (3c-3c) of course ; - ). And no I am not watching hockey right now. Getting ready for the two snow storms headed our way. Your way too I imagine.
Inushtuk1 says: Oh of course it’s a club flush for 24. Duh!
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Sunday 10:37 AM
We can either keep one of the two pairs or both:

A-A-8-Q: 2pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.33) = 7¼pts

8-J-J-Q: 2pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.38) = 7¼pts

A-A-J-J: 4pts + 3¼pts (Schell: 3.19) = 7¼pts

Potential:

A-A-8-Q: Improves with AA, 3333, 4444, 5555, 6666, 7777, 888, QQQ = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 6pts with AA, 4444, 5555, 6666 = 14 cuts.

8-J-J-Q: Improves with 5555, 7777, 888 + 13xXs = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 42.9% up to 6/8pts with 5555, 10101010, JJ, KKKK = 14 cuts. Plus 22 hearts and clubs for an extra 1pt for his nob = 22/46 = 0.48pt.

A-A-J-J: Improves with AA, 4444, 5555, JJ = 12 cuts = 12/46 = 26.1% up to 8/12pts with all cuts. Plus 22 hearts and clubs for an extra 1pt for his nob = 22/46 = 0.48pt.

Pegging:

A-A-8-Q should peg best playing Offense but here we're playing Defense so I think 8-J-J-Q will be best.

Position:

As First Dealer we're playing Defense but hoping to score 16pts or more.

Summary:

A-A-8-Q has the most cuts for improvement but 8-J-J-Q has a better maximum plus it has nearly ½pt extra for his nob. Playing Defense 8-J-J-Q should peg well. So I'll throw the pair of Aces.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 12:15 PM
At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W9 %____W10 %
8-J-J-Q___4.65+(-2.41)+5.19=7.43____30.2____44.1
A-A-J-J___6.22+(-2.07)+3.15=7.30____29.0____43.2
A-A-8-Q___3.83+(-2.20)+5.37=7.00____27.2____40.9

Defense______L9 %____L10 %
8-J-J-Q______25.5____28.8
A-A-J-J______25.3____29.5
A-A-8-Q______26.2____31.8

8-J-J-Q is best for dynamic expected averages by 0.13pt and is also best for Win %s and Loss %s. So I'll select A-A to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
spin121
299 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 6:24 PM
I concur conclusively.
Ras2829
5155 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 6:48 PM
Am with the majority today since am playing defense. If playing offense, it seems that A-A-J-J might have the edge with that lousy 8-Q discard. In defense strategy, opponent pegs are deducted from my score. In an offense choice, pegs scored by me are added. So based on my scant empirical evidence 8-J-J-Q has the edge, and HalscribCLX shows .13 difference favoring the 8-J-J-Q in a defensive pegging choice. Thus the choice of an offense strategy would cause the top two hands to flip-flop.
Ras2829 says: With a 9 spot cut, will switch to optimal pegging strategy. That means I would pair a Jack lead or score 15-2 on a five lead with the Jack of clubs. Otherwise I'll play off the lead. Certainly would not pair an 8 or score 15-2 on the lead of a seven.
Inushtuk1 says: I gather you would not pair Pone’s Q lead either. You’re late getting on today. We’re you at the tourney in Portland?
Ras2829 says: Hi Inustuk1: Right on the Queen! Did not play the Main in Portland on Saturday. Went down to play the Consolation today, qualified with a 12-6-+45, and won. Stormy day here -so the win brought some brightness to a very drab gray blustery Sunday.
cribbagepogo
3251 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Sunday 7:45 PM
Not sure why you would break up a chance for a double run. Aces can wait.