February 11, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by ras2829
66*-70  ?
50%
21%
7%
6%
6%
4%
0%
0%
Total votes: 129
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Sunday 3:39 AM
Prefer holding 4 points in the hand and tossing the jacks for 2 more points in the crib. Two of clubs gives us a point for the matching jack. I know it pays to Flush but I don't believe today is the day.
JQT
4136 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 3:48 AM
Both the FLUSH, as well as Toss (4 6), have their proper places I suppose.

But at Hole 66 as the Dealer, I'll put the two "Jacks to Bed" early today.

With a Club Deuce Cut, let's just *hope* that Pone isn't holding four more of these Club Deuces: I mean, could we even expect anyone to count such a freakish hand?!
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 3:58 AM
I could see getting an Ace and a three by opponent. dec
james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Sunday 6:10 AM
A few options here, (I didn't even notice the A446-JJ one).

A44J becomes 10 points with an X cut, but I don't like J6 to my crib. Would choose this as Pone.

A4JJ-46 is tempting, but it's very much wishful thinking to imagine Pone will give me a 5.

Flushes with the same hand value as the other options tend to work out well, so I'll hold six points with A46J. J4 to my crib may not come to much though, seeing as I have another Jack and 4, as well as an Ace, in my hand.
I'll lead the 4 from the 4-A-6 eleven, a possible four pegging points.
james500 says: No I won't lead the 4, or any other card for that matter. Oops.
glmccuskey
4075 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Sunday 6:33 AM
We’re not giving up any points to get the jacks in the crib. I’m taking any pegs I can get.
Jazzselke
2569 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Sunday 7:12 AM
Possible 14, and a pair of jacks awaiting the common QK throw.
Gougie00
5702 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 8:00 AM
Nice puzzle with 3 different ways to go. I'll toss myself suited 46 and hope for some help from the pone.
horus93
1272 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Sunday 8:54 AM
In this position I normally play on. My gut instinct was A-4-4-J, thinking A-4-4-6 was too much of a stretch, but since this is a puzzle and not a real game I ignored my gut and took the time to do the math.

A-4-4-6 has a low hand average but we're throwing two sure points into the crib, as compared to tossing 6-J, 4-J or 6-4. Also, as pone I must throw K-Q or Q-10 into the other dude's crib at least once every game, and pone is likely to make a defensive toss here. I believe it has the highest maximum, and it could peg pretty well. All of these factors make it more attractive than A-4-4-J in the end.

With that awful cut I would rethink my strategy and probably play defense in the pegging. My deficit is likely to grow on this hand, I would want to stop pone from marching too far down third street in the mean time.
Ras2829 says: Hi horus93: Very astute observations, calculations, and well stated. Thanks for sharing.
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 10:50 AM
Yup with the majority today as tossing J-J good choice to crib and still have potential for a 14-point hand and any ten pointer tallies 8 points in hand and may add value to the J-J in crib. It's off., off., off. for me and will take pegs if offered. More later!
Ras2829 says: BTW did want to mention if the X-pointers are a pair which restores the two points lost in hand score, that will be correct though K-K is the weakest and barely squeaks through with the higher combined value. The J-Q or 10-J are inviting choices though since not assured of two points starting, those actually pull combined value down. That being the case, 10-K, 10-Q, or Q-K are to be avoided as discards from this hand when present. For those who might not be sure, combined value is the total of pegs, hand score, plus or minus crib dependent on where crib is located. The pair of Kings is not only the lowest scoring of the X-point pairs it is a distant #13 with the lowest average of 4.298 (1,054) when ranking all pairs to dealer crib. Like all discards, any X-point pair tossed on the other side of the board has a higher value than when tossed to own crib.
Ras2829 says: Ifyou would like to see how the pairs stack up when discarded to own crib or pone crib e-mail raswino29@outlook.com.
Jazzselke
2569 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Sunday 3:41 PM
Hi Ras - So if you have A446QK you would throw 46 or 6Q?
Ras2829 says: Hi jazzselke: I would toss 6-Q aince it has the higher average by about .5 of a point. Conversely would not criticize the discard of 6-K as the Queen is more likely to peg than is the King. Factoring that pegging edge fro the Queen, those two discards are about equal. The 4-6 discard reduces the hand to a mere four points and the loss of two points in hand score cannot be made up by discarding 4-6. Looks like Reno is on the menu for me. Hope to run into you in the crowd there.
Ras2829 says: Hi Dan: BTW did want to mention that 4-6 3.955 average is only .2 of a point more than that of the 6-Q at 3.730. That's true of all those discards that require a five to score the 15-2. The 3-7 to own crib that includes two key connectors averages 3.333. So it is for all discards. They score at a higher rate on the other side of the board. There is such a disparity that only two discards (10-K and 9-K) score less than 4.0 points when tossed to opponent. When tossed to your own crib there are 43 that score less than 4.0. That's 2/91 when tossed to opponent and 43/91 when discarded to self that score less than 4.0!!
Coeurdelion
5573 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Sunday 4:01 PM
4 possibilities, I think, A-4-4-J (6-J), A-4-J-J (4-6), A-4D-6-JD (4-J) and A-4-4-6 (J-J):

A-4-4-J: 6pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.41) = 9½pts

A-4-J-J: 6pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.85) = 10pts

A-4D-6-JD: 6pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.88) = 9¾pts

A-4-4-6: 4pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.33) = 9¼pts

Potential:

A-4-4-J: Improves with AAA, 44, 5555, 666, 7777 + 14xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 10/12pts with AAA, 44 + 14xXs = 19 cuts. Plus 9 diamonds for 1pt for his nob = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

A-4-J-J: Improves with AAA, 44, 5555 + 14xXs = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 12pts with AAA, 44, JJ = 7 cuts. 20 clubs and diamonds for 1pt his nob = 20/46 = 0.43pt.

A-4D-6-JD: Improves with AAA, 44, 5555, 666, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 10/12/13pts with AAA, 44, 5555, JJ = 11 cuts. Plus 9 diamonds for 1pt for his nob and 1pt for the flush 2pt x 9/46 = 0.39pt.

A-4-4-6: Improves with AAA, 44, 5555, 666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/12/14pts with AAA, 44, 5555, 666 + 14xXs = 26 cuts.

Pegging:

I think A-4-4-6 will peg best with more small cards and a 3-card magic eleven.

Position:

Pone is already at the 3rd street positional hole while we're 4pts short. If we could hold well hand and box but keep Pone short in the pegging we should be in quite a good position.

Summary:

A-4-4-6 has the lowest starting value but only by ¾pt and it has a large number of cuts for improvement and a good maximum snd slso it should peg well. So I'll throw the pair of Knaves.
HalscribCLX
5296 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 4:32 PM
At 66*-70 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W4 %____W5 %
A-4-4-6___7.48+3.15+5.18=15.81____28.4____17.1
A-4D-6-JD_8.70+3.11+3.46=15.27____28.7____19.4
A-4-4-JC__8.63+2.83+3.30=14.83____25.3____17.9
A-4-J-J___8.24+2.39+3.68=14.31____25.9____19.4

Offense_______L4 %____L5 %
A-4-4-6_______54.3____66.3
A-4D-6-JD_____51.2____64.1
A-4-4-JC______49.4____65.8
A-4-J-J_______47.0____64.1

A-4-4-6 is best for expected averages by 0.54pt but the flush is better for Win %s and Loss %s. As we're approaching a critical board position I'll select 4H-JC.

After the 2 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.