February 11, 2018
*** This hand was suggested by ras2829
|Total votes: 129|
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Joined: March 2016
Sunday 3:39 AM
Prefer holding 4 points in the hand and tossing the jacks for 2 more points in the crib. Two of clubs gives us a point for the matching jack. I know it pays to Flush but I don't believe today is the day.
Joined: October 2008
Sunday 3:48 AM
Both the FLUSH, as well as Toss (4 6), have their proper places I suppose.
But at Hole 66 as the Dealer, I'll put the two "Jacks to Bed" early today.
With a Club Deuce Cut, let's just *hope* that Pone isn't holding four more of these Club Deuces: I mean, could we even expect anyone to count such a freakish hand?!
Joined: April 2008
Sunday 3:58 AM
I could see getting an Ace and a three by opponent. dec
Joined: June 2013
Sunday 6:10 AM
A few options here, (I didn't even notice the A446-JJ one).
A44J becomes 10 points with an X cut, but I don't like J6 to my crib. Would choose this as Pone.
A4JJ-46 is tempting, but it's very much wishful thinking to imagine Pone will give me a 5.
Flushes with the same hand value as the other options tend to work out well, so I'll hold six points with A46J. J4 to my crib may not come to much though, seeing as I have another Jack and 4, as well as an Ace, in my hand.
I'll lead the 4 from the 4-A-6 eleven, a possible four pegging points.
Joined: April 2011
Sunday 6:33 AM
We’re not giving up any points to get the jacks in the crib. I’m taking any pegs I can get.
Joined: March 2009
Sunday 7:12 AM
Possible 14, and a pair of jacks awaiting the common QK throw.
Joined: March 2008
Sunday 8:00 AM
Nice puzzle with 3 different ways to go. I'll toss myself suited 46 and hope for some help from the pone.
Joined: December 2017
Sunday 8:54 AM
In this position I normally play on. My gut instinct was A-4-4-J, thinking A-4-4-6 was too much of a stretch, but since this is a puzzle and not a real game I ignored my gut and took the time to do the math.
A-4-4-6 has a low hand average but we're throwing two sure points into the crib, as compared to tossing 6-J, 4-J or 6-4. Also, as pone I must throw K-Q or Q-10 into the other dude's crib at least once every game, and pone is likely to make a defensive toss here. I believe it has the highest maximum, and it could peg pretty well. All of these factors make it more attractive than A-4-4-J in the end.
With that awful cut I would rethink my strategy and probably play defense in the pegging. My deficit is likely to grow on this hand, I would want to stop pone from marching too far down third street in the mean time.
Joined: November 2008
Sunday 10:50 AM
Yup with the majority today as tossing J-J good choice to crib and still have potential for a 14-point hand and any ten pointer tallies 8 points in hand and may add value to the J-J in crib. It's off., off., off. for me and will take pegs if offered. More later!
Joined: March 2009
Sunday 3:41 PM
Hi Ras - So if you have A446QK you would throw 46 or 6Q?
Joined: October 2007
Sunday 4:01 PM
4 possibilities, I think, A-4-4-J (6-J), A-4-J-J (4-6), A-4D-6-JD (4-J) and A-4-4-6 (J-J):
A-4-4-J: 6pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.41) = 9½pts
A-4-J-J: 6pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.85) = 10pts
A-4D-6-JD: 6pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.88) = 9¾pts
A-4-4-6: 4pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.33) = 9¼pts
A-4-4-J: Improves with AAA, 44, 5555, 666, 7777 + 14xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 10/12pts with AAA, 44 + 14xXs = 19 cuts. Plus 9 diamonds for 1pt for his nob = 9/46 = 0.20pt.
A-4-J-J: Improves with AAA, 44, 5555 + 14xXs = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 12pts with AAA, 44, JJ = 7 cuts. 20 clubs and diamonds for 1pt his nob = 20/46 = 0.43pt.
A-4D-6-JD: Improves with AAA, 44, 5555, 666, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 10/12/13pts with AAA, 44, 5555, JJ = 11 cuts. Plus 9 diamonds for 1pt for his nob and 1pt for the flush 2pt x 9/46 = 0.39pt.
A-4-4-6: Improves with AAA, 44, 5555, 666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/12/14pts with AAA, 44, 5555, 666 + 14xXs = 26 cuts.
I think A-4-4-6 will peg best with more small cards and a 3-card magic eleven.
Pone is already at the 3rd street positional hole while we're 4pts short. If we could hold well hand and box but keep Pone short in the pegging we should be in quite a good position.
A-4-4-6 has the lowest starting value but only by ¾pt and it has a large number of cuts for improvement and a good maximum snd slso it should peg well. So I'll throw the pair of Knaves.
Joined: February 2008
Sunday 4:32 PM
At 66*-70 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W4 %____W5 %
Offense_______L4 %____L5 %
A-4-4-6 is best for expected averages by 0.54pt but the flush is better for Win %s and Loss %s. As we're approaching a critical board position I'll select 4H-JC.
After the 2 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.