February 11, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by ras2829
66*-70  ?
50%
21%
7%
6%
6%
4%
0%
0%
Total votes: 129

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Rosemarie44
923 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Sunday 3:39 AM
Prefer holding 4 points in the hand and tossing the jacks for 2 more points in the crib. Two of clubs gives us a point for the matching jack. I know it pays to Flush but I don't believe today is the day.
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JQT
2377 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Sunday 3:48 AM
Both the FLUSH, as well as Toss (4 6), have their proper places I suppose.

But at Hole 66 as the Dealer, I'll put the two "Jacks to Bed" early today.

With a Club Deuce Cut, let's just *hope* that Pone isn't holding four more of these Club Deuces: I mean, could we even expect anyone to count such a freakish hand?!
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dec
4150 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Sunday 3:58 AM
I could see getting an Ace and a three by opponent. dec
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james500
1859 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Sunday 6:10 AM
A few options here, (I didn't even notice the A446-JJ one).

A44J becomes 10 points with an X cut, but I don't like J6 to my crib. Would choose this as Pone.

A4JJ-46 is tempting, but it's very much wishful thinking to imagine Pone will give me a 5.

Flushes with the same hand value as the other options tend to work out well, so I'll hold six points with A46J. J4 to my crib may not come to much though, seeing as I have another Jack and 4, as well as an Ace, in my hand.
I'll lead the 4 from the 4-A-6 eleven, a possible four pegging points.
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glmccuskey
2735 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Sunday 6:33 AM
We’re not giving up any points to get the jacks in the crib. I’m taking any pegs I can get.
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Jazzselke
1034 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Sunday 7:12 AM
Possible 14, and a pair of jacks awaiting the common QK throw.
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Gougie00
3599 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Sunday 8:00 AM
Nice puzzle with 3 different ways to go. I'll toss myself suited 46 and hope for some help from the pone.
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horus93
178 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Sunday 8:54 AM
In this position I normally play on. My gut instinct was A-4-4-J, thinking A-4-4-6 was too much of a stretch, but since this is a puzzle and not a real game I ignored my gut and took the time to do the math.

A-4-4-6 has a low hand average but we're throwing two sure points into the crib, as compared to tossing 6-J, 4-J or 6-4. Also, as pone I must throw K-Q or Q-10 into the other dude's crib at least once every game, and pone is likely to make a defensive toss here. I believe it has the highest maximum, and it could peg pretty well. All of these factors make it more attractive than A-4-4-J in the end.

With that awful cut I would rethink my strategy and probably play defense in the pegging. My deficit is likely to grow on this hand, I would want to stop pone from marching too far down third street in the mean time.
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Ras2829
3099 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Sunday 10:50 AM
Yup with the majority today as tossing J-J good choice to crib and still have potential for a 14-point hand and any ten pointer tallies 8 points in hand and may add value to the J-J in crib. It's off., off., off. for me and will take pegs if offered. More later!
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Jazzselke
1034 votes

Joined: March 2009

Sunday 3:41 PM
Hi Ras - So if you have A446QK you would throw 46 or 6Q?
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Coeurdelion
3556 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Sunday 4:01 PM
4 possibilities, I think, A-4-4-J (6-J), A-4-J-J (4-6), A-4D-6-JD (4-J) and A-4-4-6 (J-J):

A-4-4-J: 6pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.41) = 9½pts

A-4-J-J: 6pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.85) = 10pts

A-4D-6-JD: 6pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.88) = 9¾pts

A-4-4-6: 4pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.33) = 9¼pts

Potential:

A-4-4-J: Improves with AAA, 44, 5555, 666, 7777 + 14xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 10/12pts with AAA, 44 + 14xXs = 19 cuts. Plus 9 diamonds for 1pt for his nob = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

A-4-J-J: Improves with AAA, 44, 5555 + 14xXs = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 12pts with AAA, 44, JJ = 7 cuts. 20 clubs and diamonds for 1pt his nob = 20/46 = 0.43pt.

A-4D-6-JD: Improves with AAA, 44, 5555, 666, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 10/12/13pts with AAA, 44, 5555, JJ = 11 cuts. Plus 9 diamonds for 1pt for his nob and 1pt for the flush 2pt x 9/46 = 0.39pt.

A-4-4-6: Improves with AAA, 44, 5555, 666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/12/14pts with AAA, 44, 5555, 666 + 14xXs = 26 cuts.

Pegging:

I think A-4-4-6 will peg best with more small cards and a 3-card magic eleven.

Position:

Pone is already at the 3rd street positional hole while we're 4pts short. If we could hold well hand and box but keep Pone short in the pegging we should be in quite a good position.

Summary:

A-4-4-6 has the lowest starting value but only by ¾pt and it has a large number of cuts for improvement and a good maximum snd slso it should peg well. So I'll throw the pair of Knaves.
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HalscribCLX
3321 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Sunday 4:32 PM
At 66*-70 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W4 %____W5 %
A-4-4-6___7.48+3.15+5.18=15.81____28.4____17.1
A-4D-6-JD_8.70+3.11+3.46=15.27____28.7____19.4
A-4-4-JC__8.63+2.83+3.30=14.83____25.3____17.9
A-4-J-J___8.24+2.39+3.68=14.31____25.9____19.4

Offense_______L4 %____L5 %
A-4-4-6_______54.3____66.3
A-4D-6-JD_____51.2____64.1
A-4-4-JC______49.4____65.8
A-4-J-J_______47.0____64.1

A-4-4-6 is best for expected averages by 0.54pt but the flush is better for Win %s and Loss %s. As we're approaching a critical board position I'll select 4H-JC.

After the 2 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
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