February 12, 2018
*** This hand was suggested by james500
|Total votes: 151|
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Joined: October 2008
Monday 3:08 AM
Our Opponent is Ahead and Dealing from One Hole beyond the Fourth Street 'par' Hole 96, so this requires real precision on our part in order to have any real chances of prevailing in this game.
In the midst of a long and arduous tournament, a 'realist' here might decide that this game is possibly already a 'lost cause' and therefore Keep (A 4 T K) and Toss (2 8) may be indicated simply in order to reduce the 'Spread Points' by which we lose. But since we generally prefer to *fight to the bitter end* we'll perform the perhaps perfunctory analysis anyway.
While Keep (A 4 T K) and Toss (2 8) might produce the 'Highest Hand Average' for us as Pone, and while and Toss (8 K) has a lower possible 'Maximum Crib Value' of only 14 Points, as opposed to Toss (T K), which (on its worst day) can actually produce a 'Maximum Crib Value' of 20 Points, I believe that the "Hybrid Solution" of Keep (A 2 4 8) and Toss (T K) gives us the *best overall chances* of Victory today, as it strikes the ideal compromise between what is held and what is given away.
As RAS mentioned yesterday, only two discards: Toss (9 K) and Toss (T K), yield a Crib Average for our Opponent that is below 4 Points. So while Toss (T K) is Number One out of Ninety-One in terms of relative safety, Toss (2 8) is *way down the list* at about Number Forty-Three out of Ninety-One, producing a Crib Value that happens to average more than a full point greater than that produced by Toss (T K)!
Therefore, we have a confluence of compelling conditions convincing us that Keep (A 2 4 8) and Toss (T K) is clearly the way to continue here today. Leading our 4 Card seems axiomatic.
Joined: March 2016
Monday 3:12 AM
Keeping the hand with a three card eleven and tossing the low scoring 10-K to dealer, Hand increases with every cut with a potential for 8 points.
Joined: April 2008
Monday 3:26 AM
K-10 not as effctive as K-9 but at these positions try not to cut a five. Fours the lead and hope they are outside the 110 bar after. dec
Joined: August 2009
Monday 4:28 AM
JQT seems spot on today.
Joined: June 2013
Monday 4:40 AM
I'm in agreement with those who have spoken before me, and with the vast majority of voters. Clearly K-8 and 2-8 weren't as tempting as I thought they might be.
* As an aside, I seem to think that I've recently submitted this self same puzzle unaware it was already "in the hopper". I think it's due to be featured in early February of next year, if a mod fancies deleting it.
Joined: January 2018
Monday 5:09 AM
Well good morning. Well, I chose the "correct" hand because I felt I could do better in battle with that variety of cards, well enough to recoup the 2 points given up. Nothing like the mental exercise JQT went through.
Joined: April 2011
Monday 5:21 AM
Defense. Every cut adds value. Iíll lead the four and take the fifteen if offered.
Joined: November 2008
Monday 5:42 AM
JQT hit all the salient points. Will lead the 4 spot. With opponent dealing from 97, got to play SAFE in pegging responses. If dealer plays on my four lead or close to it, will escape with the 8 spot.
Joined: March 2008
Monday 6:02 AM
I prefer it this way. I kept the 10 for an escape card. Lead the 4.
Joined: March 2009
Monday 6:43 AM
A347 and A248 my favorite 2 point hands; can turn into 8 and good peggers.
Joined: December 2017
Monday 8:57 AM
I would lead the 2 rather than the four to avoid any kind of run or trap late in the first play series. 4 makes a decent out if the score hits 24-27. It also works with the A-8 to hit 31 if dealer has a bunch of X cards.
Joined: June 2016
Monday 9:23 AM
I briefly looked at K-8 discard, but quickly came to my senses. The dealer is already in a better position so I won't help him along any more than I have to.
Joined: October 2007
Monday 11:50 AM
It seems to be a straight choice between A-4-10-K (2-8) and A-2-4-8 (10-K):
A-4-10-K: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.94) = -1pt
A-2-4-8: 2pts - 4pts (Schell: 3.88) = -2pts
A-4-10-K: Improves with AAA, 444, 5555 + 14xXs = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 8/10 with AAA, 444, 5555, 101010, KKK = 16 cuts.
A-2-4-8: Improves with AAA, 222, 3333, 444, 5555, 6666, 7777, 888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 6/8pts with AAA, 222, 3333, 444, 888 = 16 cuts.
With 3 low cards and a middle card and a 3-card magic eleven I think A-2-4-8 will peg better even playing Defense.
Dealer is in the 4th street CPZ but if we can keep them short in the box and short on pegs we might be in with a good chance. We should also reach or exceed the 4th street positional hole but must slow Dealer down as much as possible.
A-2-4-8 has most cuts for improvement and 16 for an average 6-8pts. It starts with 1pt less but should make this up. More importantly the 10-K ought help keep the box low and keep Dealer's pegging to a minimum. So I'll throw the 10-K.
Joined: February 2008
Monday 12:18 PM
At 92-97* playing a Safe strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
Defense___Hand___Pegs___Crib____Total___W2 %____W3 %
Defense_______L2 %____L3 %
A-2-4-8 is only 0.10pt better for expected averages and only slightly better for Win %s. However it is significantly lower for Loss %s because of the safer 10-K. Both these %s take into account the critical board position so I'll select 10-K to discard.
After the 10 cut I'll lead the 2 and play Defense:
Lead__________Dealer's Pegging Pts.