February 21, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)
119-119*  ?
36%
14%
14%
9%
4%
4%
4%
4%
3%
1%
1%
1%
Total votes: 163
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:33 AM
Ok I will be the fourth different vote today. I will go the five card response instead of the six, (K-5 vs 6-9) . My mind set is going for finishing with the pair of sixes for game. dec
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:11 AM
These end games are challenging for me. Dealer has certainly the advantage only needing two points and is guaranteed one point. We just need to stop him from pegging and then our advantage of counting first kicks in. Can we get that far?
Rosemarie44 says: We can peg out first?
james500
3923 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:47 AM
Assuming we avoid cutting a Jack, the six is the safest lead with only six scoring replies,(66,9999), as compared to the seven with seven, (777,8888), and any of the X's with seven also, (XXX,5555).
Hopefully Dealer responds to my lead by playing away with an X response, taking the count to a "safe" 16 and leaving me a 75% chance to pair for 26/2 and the win.
Guest says: Great job james. Rosemarie44
Jazzselke
2586 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Wednesday 5:00 AM
James says it all. Lead the off card 6 and hope for a face card response.
Jazzselke
2586 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Wednesday 5:00 AM
James says it all. Lead the off card 6 and hope for a face card response.
Jazzselke says: ...slow system...
Guest says: Tommy two times
glmccuskey
4101 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Wednesday 5:53 AM
I’ll lead a six and hope to get a Q or K reply.
Gougie00
5730 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 5:54 AM
Gotta hold 2. I wasnt deal a A234 to lead, so I'll lead the 6. I am banking on my opponent having no 6 or 9 and all low cards. Maybe I can hold him to one peg and go out.

Inushtuk1
1487 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Wednesday 7:36 AM
I don’t feel the need to keep two points. There will be no showdown. I just need to keep one 6 to lead from, and four different ranks of cards to increase my chances of pairing his/her reply. I’m keeping the Q-K because if the Dealer has no 6 or 9 they may wish to bring the count to 16 if they have an X-card. They would most likely dump a Q or a K as a commonly held hand is 6-9-10-J.
Inushtuk1 says: But maybe at the end of the game, all that logic just goes out the window. What do I know?
JQT says: There is indeed a window (it's also the first place that I looked to make an escape), but predictably, it's been bolted and welded shut.
Inushtuk1 says: Ah, yeah! I blame the 29 stock market crash for that one.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 11:10 AM
And I'll lead a VI (as Inushtuk1 likes to call them-there 6 Cards...).

Note: If a Jack is Cut, we've already lost - does this increase the odds of Dealer *holding* a Jack.
JQT says: For this 'increased-odds Jack' reason, I also considered holding Keep (6 6 7 J). While I cannot quite 'take that plunge' and hold 'one of each' for maximum pegging variety, I am inclined to retain at least *some* variety. In fact, if we really primarily sought pegging uniqueness here, maybe Keep (6 J Q K) would somehow fit the bill; interesting, as it also 'covers' those few holes we need if neither players peg out, and it still allows us that relatively-safer 6 Card Lead...
Samgash
402 votes

Joined: November 2016

 
 
 
Wednesday 1:25 PM
So it seems clear that we must lead a 6 in this dicey situation. Either can only be immediately scored upon by six remaining cards (6,6,9,9,9,9). That’s the minimum relative to our options.
My question is why so many folks want to keep both 6’s for the play here. It seems pretty unlikely that we’d score two points as pone by using a 6. If dealer had a 6 or 9, the game would clearly be over on the lead. Further, if not scored upon the 6 seems likely to draw a 10-K response if available to avoid the possible 15. Why not have 3/4 (KQJ) of those available for that exact situation? Or even the 7 could give you options should the play extend further. But the second 6.... how can it ever be useful here?
JQT says: Hello, Samgash, it's been a while since we've been able to enjoy a posting from you. I would hold the 'other' 6 Card here mainly as a *defensive* resource, since we were dealt two of these cards to begin with, and since if the initial 6 Card Lead does in fact escape unscathed for us, we now know that at least our 'other' 6 card will be somewhat or *relatively* safe. Remember our Pegging Averages here: Dealer statistically out-pegs us as Pone by a margin of 3.5 Points to 2.1 Points, so *anything* we can do to enhance our safety and our immunity from Dealer being able to peg should be beneficial to us. Yes, it would be nice to try to generate some offense and peg Two Holes in order to win here, but otherwise, I believe that our main task is primarily that of playing *defense* today.
Inushtuk1 says: Good answer JQT. But I still prefer 4 different ranks in my hand than 3.
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Wednesday 2:47 PM
I don't think we can expect to hold Dealer to 1pt so I need to peg 2pts first. I'll keep the 6-6-7 and the K. I'll lead a 6 as it only has 6 cards which will score off it. It will be hard to avoid Dealer scoring 2pts.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:23 PM
Playing an Optimal strategy the Chances of Dealer Pegging Out, the Chances of Our Pegging Out and the Chances of Holding Enough are:

Optimal____Dealer Peg Out %____Our Peg Out %____Hold Out %
6-J-Q-K_________82.0______________13.2___________100.0
6-7-J-Q_________82.0______________10.0____________92.1
6-7-J-K_________83.2_______________8.8____________89.2
6-7-Q-K_________83.2_______________8.8____________86.2
7-J-Q-K_________84.4______________12.4___________100.0
6-6-J-Q_________87.2_______________6.4___________100.0
6-6-J-K_________88.8_______________5.2___________100,0
6-6-Q-K_________88.8_______________5.2___________100.0
6-6-7-J_________90.8_______________4.4___________100.0
6-6-7-Q_________90.8_______________4.4___________100.0
6-6-7-K_________90.8_______________4.4___________100.0

6-J-Q-K has the lowest chance of Dealer Pegging Out and the best chance of Pegging Out ourselves. If neither peg out then we hold enough to score out.

After the 5 cut I'll lead the J:

Lead________Win %_______Loss %
J____________8.6_________34.5
Q____________8.5_________36.5
K____________6.9_________39.1
6____________4.0_________34.2
Ras2829 says: While HalscribCLX is presenting this fine analysis, here's a bit of a summary of what I've been up to over the past 24 hours. Been very busy week for me with hosting the rest stop as I have responsibility for equipment setup, volunteer scheduling of 14 hours daily , procurement of supplies, and equipment security overnight. Logan Hill Grange has opted to do this as a community service for several years now and we've chosen North Toutle Rest Area MP #54. Scheduling is a terrific problem as our membership include three at age 70 or under. The remainder are from 76-91. Last night was exhilarating. Just north of MP 63 had quite an experience. That nearly straight stretch there is noted for a large number of wintry accidents between MP 61-66. Well at about 9:40 PM a single-trailer freight truck suddenly tears through the Jersey barriers on it's side with sparks and flame shooting around it, pieces of the truck flying through the air, and small-large pieces of airborne cement. Have confronted a few such scenes over the years as have always driven many miles annually. This truck seemed to be travelling at the speed limit. The problem was that it was careening through the barriers with the driver-side to the ground with the wheel spinning uselessly in the air. This truck was northbound and I was almost exactly parallel in the southbound lane. My vehicle was set at 63 mph. My subconscious mind told me "keep up your speed". Only one chunk of brick-size chunk of cement nailed me as it hit the pavement dead-center. It made two loud thumps as the car rolled on. Had my speed been slower or had I braked, a heavy shower of cement, reinforcing rod, and truck parts would have pummeled the car. Did not inspect for any damage. Suddenly there was no traffic behind me as mine was the last car southbound that got through for a couple of hours. Somewhat shaken, I proceeded on to the rest stop. Advised the volunteers to take exit 57 and the Jackson Highway. I told them of the accident. Today after completing my morning duties at the rest area, I proceeded north on I-5. Kept my eyes open as to the damage the truck might have caused. About half mile north of exit 63 was a large burned area, the remains of a burned out semi-trailer, a length of Jersey barriers of about 100 feet in a variety of shapes, some badly crumbled, some wheel barrel sized chunks, and a scene that displayed the violence of the impact. Heard a short report on KELA radio this morning. It mentioned the accident, the location, the icy conditions, no indication of other vehicles involved, no indication of injuries or fatalities. Amazing if there were not such as many vehicles were moving on the freeway northbound at 60-63 miles per hour. It would seem that the truck driver would have been pinned in the cab with his left side to the ground as flames quickly engulfed the truck. Imagine some brave soul must have figured a quick way to get him out of the cab. What a ride! Don't try it - there are other ways to holler "whee"! A few such episodes could return me to the insecurities of my youth and haven't bitten my nails for years. It was 15 degrees here this morning and 24 at the North Toutle Rest Stop MP #54. Suppose it was 10 below at your place. Billings Montana had the coldest temperature ever recorded for this late February date with -24. Very large frigid air mass, often referred to as a Fraser River flow is in place and looks to hang around until early March.
jethrotulll says: Holy crap