Sunday 3:38 AM

Going with expected averages and was thanked by a Queen cut to go along with the J-K that I tossed to dealer's crib! Hoping for a cut that would give me 12 or 14 points to the hand.
Believed it was too early in the game to go defensive with 10-K and holding 7-8-9-J. Did I chose correctly?

   

Sunday 3:56 AM

Still could hit 12-13 with this hold. Peg off with that Jack . dec

   

Sunday 4:32 AM

I don't have a problem throwing J - K. Six points in hand not four.

   

Sunday 4:36 AM

Five points instead of six, but surely a much safer discard. With the Jack retained, I have an 11/46 chance to get that point back.

8 lead.

   

Sunday 6:04 AM

It takes years and years of practice to cut the gut card. I would have looked really smart had I cut a 7 or 8. Lead the 8.

   

Sunday 6:54 AM

I’ll throw away one point to slow down the dealer. Playing the 25 theory, dealer is short of their mark of 21. Defense for me.

   

Sunday 7:16 AM

7-8-9-t can give up so many points in play if dealer has middle cards it didn't seem worth the risk at this score as 7-8-9-J is not a bad hand itself. Too defensive? I look forward to other comments. Lead the 8 to break up that bunch of cards, J is my escape if dealer decides to get cute and try to entice a run.

   

Sunday 10:12 AM

This is an interesting board position. Using Schell’s Simplified System as JQT calls it we should play defense. But as spin has pointed out we will lose this game as Dealer on the last hand if you play it out on your boards. So maybe offense is best. Having said all that, the best offense is a good defense.

   

Sunday 10:41 AM

As mentioned above whether playing defense or offense, it is a close call. Will choose optimal and once seeing the Queen cut which adds no value to my hand, will choose a defensive pegging strategy. So at that point, it seems slowing the opponent down is the best thing I can do. Opponent does need 25 points to reach 2nd street CPZ 43-47. Just might be that a 0-2 p0oint crib could be a key element in that slow-down. That 10-K scores two points or less 45.494% and a bunch of those are zeroes. Sometimes take a deck of cards, put a 10-K on the table, pull three cards at random, and record the number of zero cribs that you will stack up. Since it is such a crappy day in much of the country (we are out of the ice and snow with blowing rain), that might be a good way to pass an hour or two. Shuffle the cards as you would in cribbage each time. You can deal them as you would in a game, make the discard which seems appropriate for opponent, and cut or you can just pull the three cards randomly as earlier suggested. Want to make a 10-K believer out of you. I know players who tell me: "Every time I toss 10-K across the board, they score 8 or more points." Since choosing defense, RAS will break the middle sequence by leading the 8. Had my final choice been optimal or offense, would have led the 7. Because that 10-K averages 3.848 (3,884)1/91, the potential low-scoring crib more than makes up for the potential added value of the 10 spot in hand. Add the potential point for the Jack in hand and no such potential for the Jack in opponent crib, and the picture more fully emerges.

   

Sunday 12:10 PM

Could have called it, it's real life. If I throw this way guaranteed Q.

   

Sunday 3:11 PM

I think its between 7-8-9-10 (J-K) and 7-8-9-J (10-K):

7-8-9-10: 6pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.77) = 1pt

7-8-9-J: 5pts - 4pts (Schell: 3.88) = 1pt

Potential:

7-8-9-10: Improves with 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 999, 101010, JJJ = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 9/12/14pts with 6666, 777, 888, 999, 101010 = 16 cuts.

7-8-9-J: Improves with 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 999, 101010, JJJ = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 8/10/12pts with 6666, 777, 888, 999 = 13 cuts. Plus 11 clubs for 1pt for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

Pegging:

I don't think there will be much difference in the pegging of these two hands.

Position:

It looks as if Pone was First Dealer so I'll continue to play Offense.

Summary:

Both these hands have the same starting value and the same number of cuts for improvement. But 7-8-9-10 has more cuts for 9-14pts and a better maximum. On the other hand 7-8-9-J has nearly ¼pt for the J. Even so I think 7-8-9-10 will have the edge.

   

Sunday 3:24 PM

At 22-18* playing an Offense strategy the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W7 %____W8 %
7-8-9-J___7.17+1.30+(-3.96)=4.51____14.2____31.7
7-8-9-10__8.33+1.24+(-5.12)=4.45____16.2____32.1

Offense______L7 %____L8 %
7-8-9-J______16.4____35.7
7-8-9-10_____18.4____37.2

7-8-9-J is better for expected averages by a slim 0.06pt but although 7-8-9-10 is slightly better for Win %s 7-8-9-J is lower for Loss %s because of the safety of the 10-K. So I'll select 10-K to discard.

After the Q cut I'll lead the 7 and play Defense:

Lead_________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
7__________________(-2.20)
8__________________(-2.28)
J__________________(-2.70)
9__________________(-2.71)