March 9, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Inushtuk1
24-14*  ?
41%
20%
20%
9%
3%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 163

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JQT
2276 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Friday 3:06 AM
Safe discard, also considered Toss (8 T); meanwhile a 4 Card or 7 Card still help us after Toss (6 T).

Lead a Trey from the PAIR.
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dec
4055 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Friday 3:07 AM
Defense. The only cut that does not add to hand are the two and the eight. Playing a chance to get to thirty four. Know the pegging cards are bunched up so this might be this for that for points. Three of hearts lead. dec
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Rosemarie44
835 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Friday 3:21 AM
I was riskier in my decision to toss 6-8 to dealer. Hand has more cuts for improvement over 3-3-5-8 which started with 2 points vs. 4 points.
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Gougie00
3517 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Friday 4:43 AM
That worked out well, didnt it? Purely defensive gesture trying to maintain a lead. Lead the 3 and play off.
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Jazzselke
985 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Friday 5:54 AM
Purely defensive posture. Trying to prevent opponent from getting to about Hole 36 or so.
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JRCeagle78
456 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Friday 6:25 AM
Tossing the 8-T may seem like a risky move setting up a run of three for the dealer on the event of a 9 being cut, but the nine will give 4 points to his three. You have to pay the taxman before you get a refund.

The 6 cut should get me to my goal with a 3 lead and good defensive play.
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horus93
129 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Friday 6:57 AM
6-8 isn't THAT risky, not enough to justify the loss of hand potential with other tosses this early in the game imo. Defense to the cut, lead the 3. 3-3-5-8 was my second choice but it has a lot of dud cuts.
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horus93
129 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Friday 7:15 AM
* 6-T at 108-95* I meant, which is better than 8-T, last one haha
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james500
1774 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Friday 7:29 AM
Plan to lead a 3 hoping for an X response, and safely dump the 5 as my second card:


3(3)-X(13)-5(18)-X(28)-3(31/2) or,
3(3)-X(13)-5(18)-5(23/2)-8(31/2).

Very unfortunate with the cut, 43/46 would've added points to our hand:

43 cards = 7 lots of six cards, and 1 more card =
43 cards = (7*13%) + (1*2%) =
43 cards = 91% + 2% =
43 cards = 93% of possible cuts would've helped.
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glmccuskey
2652 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Friday 7:31 AM
I'll play it defensively and lead the three of spades. Every cut except a six adds value.
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Ras2829
3009 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Friday 9:15 AM
Dealer is exceedingly short and non-dealer has no ability to reach that next CPZ 43-47 as indicated by Jazzselke above. So its def., def., def., for me and the 6-10 is the lowest scoring combination in this hand. Lead the 3s, ditch the five spot next play if feasible. Just how much safer is the 6-10 than the 8-10 on average?
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Inushtuk1
556 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Friday 12:43 PM
I wish I could find my notes on this submission. But I think the idea was that tossing (6-8) is being too defensive here. Therefore I am in complete agreement with Rosemarie and horus93. Wasn’t it Greg’s mentor Al Miller who said, “Sometimes you can play yourself defensively into a close loss.”?

Playing defense, and leading my 3h. On a 10 or any X-card response showing the other 3 from the three card “Magic Eleven”.
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Dr. Crib
16 votes

Joined: February 2018

   
Friday 2:37 PM
I agree that at this point in the game one doesn't want to be TOO defensive, but only if there something to gain from the risk. I don't see a very big up side to holding 3-3-5-10 and tossing 6-8. Doing so you'll start off with two more points than holding 3-3-5-8 and you'll probably end up with only two more points after the cut. Once you see that 6 cut, you'll be hoping to see dealer play some middle cards. If dealer tosses two middle cards to the crib, you've gone from slightly ahead to way behind this hand. I opt for defense and living to fight another day.
Reply
Coeurdelion
3463 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Friday 3:08 PM
One 4pt possibility 3-3-5-10 (6-8) and a couple of more defensive throws for 2pts - 3-3-5-6 (8-10) and 3-3-5-8 (6-10):

3-3-5-10: 4pts - 5½pts (Schell: 5.86) = -1½pts

3-3-5-6: 2pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 5.10) = -2¾pts

3-3-5-8: 2pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.31) = -2¼pts

Potential:

3-3-5-10: Improves with 2222, 33, 4444, 555, 7777, 9999 + 15xXs = 36 cuts = 36/46 = 78.3% up to 8/12pts with 2222, 33, 4444, 555, 7777, 101010 = 20 cuts.

3-3-5-6: Improves with 33, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 9999 + 15xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 6/8/9/14pts with 33, 4444, 6666, 7777, 9999 = 18 cuts.

3-3-5-8: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 33, 4444, 555, 7777, 888, 9999 + 15xXs = 43 cuts = 43/46 = 93.5% up to 6/14pts with 33, 4444, 7777 = 10 cuts.

Pegging:

I think all these hands will peg well with low cards and a 3-card magic eleven.

Summary:

3-3-5-10 is best for starting value by ¾-1¼pts and has a good number of cuts for improvement with 20 cuts for 8/12pts. So I'll throw 6-8.
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HalscribCLX
3232 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Friday 3:51 PM
At 24-14* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Dlr's
Defense____Hand__Pegs___Crib___Total_____W7 %____W8 %
3-3-5-10___6.78+(-2.63)+5.43=(-1.28)_____18.1____41.2
3-3-5-6____5.78+(-2.46)+4.78=(-1.46)_____16.7____39.4
3-3-5-8____5.17+(-2.61)+4.08=(-1.52)_____14.6____38.4

Defense_________L7 %____L8 %
3-3-5-10________12.8____28.1
3-3-5-6_________11.8____27.9
3-3-5-8_________10.4____26.7

3-3-5-10 is 0.18pt better for expected averages and is appreciably better for Win %s. It is slightly worse for Loss %s because of the riskier 6-8 but even so I'll elect to discard it.

After the 6 cut I'll lead a 3 and play Defense:

Lead______________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
3________________________(-2.29)
10_______________________(-2.69)
5________________________(-3.24)
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