Saturday 3:24 AM

Twelve cuts gets you in. The six cut gets you to deadhole. The five and The Jack of three suits gets you to 119. I am leading the ten and hope to trap the rest soon or later. dec

   

Saturday 3:31 AM

We could toss J-K and hold 6 points. Or, toss T-K, hold the Jack for the possibility of an additional point with a hand that starts with 5 points. With the 5 cut, either way we have 8 points needing 10 points to win.

   

Saturday 4:43 AM

Too late in the game to consider K-10, so I'll keep the guaranteed six points, rather than the guaranteed five with a 1/4 chance of the sixth.

Clutching at straws maybe, but I'll lead the 10:
10(10)-5(15/2)-9(24)-go-7(31/2).

   

Saturday 5:04 AM

Who knew the correct answer was to toss the 78? Had I done that, I'd have 10 and out. Cribbage fairy is off her meds again.

I kept 789-10 because it made sense at the time. Lead the 7 and try to generate some pegging.

Tomorrow we have to futz with the clocks again.

   

Saturday 5:44 AM

Not worth sacrificing two points to throw 7-K. I’ll lead the ten the keep 7-8-9 intact.

   

Saturday 7:28 AM

It’s now or never. This gives us the most outs. We only need to peg 2 points. Lead the 10 to keep the 7-8-9 intact. On pretty much all the replies dump the 9. This gives us the best chance to get the GO and keeps our scorers intact. Of course we simply pair the 7 response for the win. I’m quite confident we can do this.

   

Saturday 7:48 AM

Should be 100%.

   

Saturday 9:20 AM

Where's the catch?

I doubt dealer is going to let me trap him in a run on the first play at this score so I'd lead the 10 to disguise my hand a bit and hopefully pick up some points further in the play.

   

Saturday 11:58 AM

Perhaps more of a pegging puzzle than a discard puzzle.

I'll start with the 7 Card.

   

Saturday 4:12 PM

We can keep 6pts with the risky J-K or 5pts with the ultra-safe 10-K or 4pts with the fairly safe 7-K:

7-8-9-10: Improves to 7pts with JJJJ
8pts with 5555
9pts with 6666
12pts with 999, 101010
14pts with 777, 888

20 cuts for 8pts or more.

7-8-9-J Improves to 7pts with 1010100, JJJ
8pts with 6666
10pts with 999
12pts with 777, 888

13 cuts for 8pts or more
11 clubs for 1pt for his nob

8-9-10-J Improves to 7pts with 777
8pts with 5555
10pts with 888,999,101010,JJJ

16 cuts for 8pts or more
11 clubs for 1pt for his nob

Its a balance between the safety of the discard and the number of cuts for 8pts or more. The safer discard gives us nore chance to reach next deal and may allow us to peg out as Dealer. I prefer to go with more cuts this deal and will risk the J-K.

   

Saturday 4:15 PM

At 104*-111 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the Win/Loss %s are:

Offense______W1 %_____L2 %_____W2 %_____L2 %
7-8-9-10_____48.4_____34.3_____61.1_____29.8
7-8-9-J______40.1_____27.9_____56.8_____34.5
7-8-9-K______34.9_____37.7_____46.9_____41.7
8-9-10-J_____36.5_____28.4_____45.0_____45.2

7-8-9-10 has a considerably higher Win % but a much worse Loss % this deal because of the more risky J-K. But even so I'll play Offense and select J-K to discard.

   

Saturday 5:05 PM

It's all been said for me today. Want to count out this time. Seems to me leading the 10 is the best shot. If dealer has a 7, a 10 spot as lead would bring it out in preference to other mid cards and believe dealer would play off on a 7 lead if at all possible. Think any way you play it, lead from the outer edge of these four cards. Take any two pegs offered. With dealer needing 17, would think our chances are slightly better than 50% on chalk up a win. Might get two deals to do that.