March 11, 2018
*** This hand was suggested by james500
|Total votes: 118|
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Joined: October 2008
Sunday 3:17 AM
Not much sleep last night for the weary-eyed.
Toss (8 8) is safer than Toss (5 J)!
Lead the 5 Card, Live-Large for a change...
Joined: April 2008
Sunday 4:26 AM
Play thy position. Ten lead. dec
Joined: March 2016
Sunday 4:27 AM
Agree with JQT. Hand has more chances for improvement and starts at 7 points.
Joined: December 2008
Sunday 6:18 AM
Maybe it's regional but 8,8 here always seems to be more detrimental than an X,5 toss where x=10. I can appreciate the philosophy that the previous posters have alluded to as I did consider the choice they made. I will be very interested in the analysis todayn( I am always a sideline spectator and always very interested but today just that little bit more so).
Joined: June 2013
Sunday 6:29 AM
In agreement with those above me. Plenty of helpful cuts for 5-9-T-J, and plenty of time to recover should 8-8 hurt us.
On another topic altogether, I succumbed to the hype and fanfare last night and saw the Academy Award winning, "The shape of water". It wasn't terrible, but I don't see what all the fuss is about. Certainly not as emotionally affecting as some audiences have claimed.
Joined: December 2017
Sunday 8:11 AM
8-8 is probably safer than 5-J, I'm not thrilled but I think this is best.
Cautious offense to the cut.
I like JQT's idea of leading the 5 - ~50/50 shot of recouping any points and it preserves our 9-T-J.
Joined: March 2008
Sunday 8:23 AM
I'll hold the double run
Joined: April 2011
Sunday 8:37 AM
I certainly like 8-8 vs 5-J.
Joined: July 2016
Sunday 9:16 AM
I’m not giving my opponent two key connectors to start with one more point.
By all means lead that 5. Roughly 50/50 chance of recouping the two points like horus93 mentioned; and if Dealer lays off the 5 s/he will often reply with an Ace, or a 9; both of which allow us to draw first blood.
Joined: February 2011
Sunday 9:19 AM
Lots of board left in case things go awry here. On the other hand, could have the lead after this hand if I cut into it.
Joined: November 2008
Sunday 9:31 AM
Many short comments today say all that needs to be said. Hold 5-9-10-J, discard those scary eights, lead the five. Seems to me the five is the better lead whether choosing an offense or defense pegging strategy. BTW based on scant empirical evidence the 5-J discard choice would fall into third spot with the 5-8-9-10 claiming second ranking. Interesting puzzle this day!
Joined: April 2015
Sunday 9:49 AM
I think I learned something today. At first glance, I would have tossed 8-J, or maybe even 5-J. However after looking at the averages, put me in the 8-8 category. Thanks james500!
Joined: October 2007
Sunday 2:21 PM
The two likely choices are 5-9-10-J (8-8) and 5-8-9-10 (8S-J) but I'll look at 8-8-9-10 (5-J) for comparison:
5-9-10-J: 7pts - 6¾pts (Schell: 6.82) = ¼pt
5-8-9-10: 5pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.59) = ¼pt
8-8-9-10: 8pts - 8pts (Schell: 7.76) = 0pt
5-9-10-J: Improves with AAAA, 555, 6666, 88, 999 + 14xxs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 10/12/13/14pts with 555, 999, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ = 16 cuts. Plus 11 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.
5-8-9-10: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 555, 6666, 7777, 88, 999 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 555, 7777, 88, 999, JJJ = 15 cuts.
8-8-9-10: Improves with 555, 6666, 7777, 88, 999, 101010, JJJ = 22 cuts 22/46 = 47.8% up to 14/15/16pts = with 7777, 88, 999, 101010, JJJ = 15 cuts.
The better peggers will be 5-9-10-J and 5-8-9-10 and should be similar.
At the starting position as Pone I'll be playing Offense as normally.
5-9-10-J and 5-8-9-10 have the same starting value and while 5-8-9-10 has more cuts 5-9-10-J has the better maximum. 5-9-10-J also has the benefit of the J for a chance of his nob. As the pegging will be similar I'll chance the 8-8 and take the Offense.
Joined: February 2008
Sunday 3:11 PM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
Offense___Hand_Pegs___Crib__Total___W9 %____W10 %
Offense______L9 %____L10 %
5-9-10-J is 0.23pt better for expected averages and is best for Win %s and second best to 5-8-9-10 for Loss %s as 8-8 is riskier than 8-J. So I'll select the 8-8 to discard.
After the K cut I'll lead the 5 and play Offense:
Lead______________Our Pegging Pts.
Joined: October 2007
Sunday 3:55 PM
I think this is perhaps a good exanple of a hand where my statement that 'the best discard is the best discard' can be explained.
The expected average for the hand can be calculated and so for any particular 4 cards is fixed. The static expected value for the discard is fixeed dependant on which set of discard tables is used. Therefore the sum total or net difference (on whose crib it is) must be fixed. This makes no allowance for pegging efficiency of the hand, what strategy is adopted (board position) or any allowance for negative/positive delta. The very fact that Anthony Myers can list the best throws from all 18,395 hands (ignoring suit) in his book Crbbage Discards is testament to this fact. Of course in some cases the second best may be very close and the factors mentioned above may cause you to decide on an alternative throw. But that is a matter of judgement.
For this scenario 5-8-8-9-10-J Anthony Myers lists 8-J as the best discard. This is because using Schell's Discard table the results are:
5-9-10-J: 9.67 - 6.82 = 2.85
5-8-9-10: 7.59 - 4.59 = 3.00
With Ras's figures this becomes:
5-9-10-J: 9.67 - 7.91 = 1.76
5-8-9-10: 7.59 - 4.57 = 3.02
An even larger difference.
For these two keeps the difference in pegging is not large. The main differences are that in this board position we are playing Offense and also negative delta plays a part in both discards.
In summary, as I've always maintained - the cards don't know what strategy you want to adopt and the Best Discard is the Best Discard! Quite often you will be playing Offense for the pegging but choosing a Defensive discard and vice-versa. I freely admit that you might not want to choose this throw for all the above reasons or even personal preference but it does not alter the fact.