March 15, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by james500
87-94*  ?
48%
32%
15%
2%
0%
0%
Total votes: 160
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Thursday 3:05 AM
Dealer is just two points shy of par hole 96. Tossing 9-Q which is usually only worth 2 points in opponent's crib.
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 3:50 AM
How to peg at least tw or more with that cut making that Q-9 probably a worthty choice. I choose a three lead simple fifteen response after hopefully. dec
glmccuskey
4102 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Thursday 4:09 AM
Holding the seven every cut adds value. The nine misses on a eight cut plus 9-Q is a top defensive discard. Lead the three of diamonds.
james500
3924 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Thursday 5:48 AM
I'll be interested to see how Hal reads this. I suspect that 233Q will be best for win%, and 2337 best for loss avoidance%. I'll play it safe.
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Thursday 6:02 AM
I wasn't willing to sacrifice two points for defense at this score and with this hand, 9-Q was definitely my second choice though.

Play on to the cut and try for a 15 or perhaps a triple by leading the three.
horus93 says: We want to get to around 96 on this hand. 2-3-3-7 averages a mere 8 points compared to 9.6 for 2-3-3-Q. Holding the dealer back here won't do us much good if we fail to advance far enough down the board ourselves.
Gougie00
5731 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 6:15 AM
Well, that didnt work ...

JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 7:15 AM
We wish to become Next Dealer at or beyond Hole 95.

But we notice that our Opponent is attempting to perform the same feat!

Therefore, we Toss (9 Q) in an effort to both slow down the Current Dealer and yet also meet our own requirements.

Lead the Trey of D.
JQT says: Discarding defensively should slow down this game and give us more time to decide how to handle our crucial Next Deal.
wasa
3018 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Thursday 8:08 AM
I missed the 2-3-3-7 as 4 points. Under 26 theory opponent, needing 27, is very close. But under 26 theory I expect 36 points in this plus next hand. Needing 34, knock wood, I can make it. With the horrible (for me) cut, I really hope my opponent does not have a 24 point crib.
Jazzselke
2586 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Thursday 8:12 AM
We are assured of 6 points, more would be better but also looking at our opponent's position. Even 233Q would only be 6 with a 6 or 8 cut. So will combine offense with defense. Will peg based on the cut card and opponent's first play.
King Richard says: What about 5s and 8s. The King would rather give Q9. More D and everything does hit 2337. Did you mean to keep 2337?
Jazzselke says: Yes, meant 2337. Just seeing if anyone caught it!?!
Guest says: And, we agree with RAS today!
Guest says: Guest is King Richard.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016

 
 
 
Thursday 8:39 AM
The best defensive toss to the crib is the 9-Q. With 15 more X-cards, the 2-3-3 could still work out well.

The 8 cut doesn't help as much as I would like it to, but it tells me that a 7 lead could be safe. However, I will lead the 3d and play defensively as the play permits.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018

 
 
 
Thursday 9:26 AM
Tossing 7,9 to the dealer seemed dangerous given the absolute scores, as well as the disparity therein. Willing to give up 2 pts to [hopefully] stink up the crib with a Q,9.
Inushtuk1
1488 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Thursday 9:39 AM
The expected averages favor the (7-9) by about half a point. Yes horus93 is correct. The 2-3-3-Q averages about 1.6 points more than 2-3-3-7. But hold on a minute. The Dealer is approaching the most critical of all board positions - 95/96. We are within 10 points of that same position. Now might be the time to completely gut our hand if necessary. But we don’t even have to do *that*. The 2-3-3-7 improves on every cut to at least 6 points. We can play it safe, and if need be switch to offense if we don’t cut into our hand.

I believe it was March 7th of this year that Ras said when holding only 6 points and2-2-3 or 2-3-3 with a 7 or an 8 that was often the best way to go, even if making the risky discard. It was (8-8) last week. Well this week we don’t even have to worry about that, as we can toss the 4th best defensive discard over the board.

Both hands have a maximum of 12 points. Of course our chances of winning will be *slightly* better with the (7-9) toss. Also dubbed The Curse by our very own JQT. But our chances of losing must be 8-10 times *worse* by doing so. Discretion is the better part of valour today.

Well the good news is we dodged a bullet with that 8 cut. The bad news is we are a bit short ourselves. Switching to offense and the 3d lead. If we had cut a 3 we could have played defensively.
Inushtuk1 says: Someone above mentioned they weren’t willing to sacrifice two points with the (Q-9). Someone else mentioned they were. But we *aren’t* sacrificing two points, as every cut with 2-3-3-7 adds at least two points for a total of 6 minimum. 2-3-3-Q has 8 cuts, (6666,8888) that leave us with that same minimum of 6 points. What we *are* sacrificing is 1.53 points in average hand value, and subsequently our expected average suffers a little as well.
Ras2829
5155 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 9:49 AM
With dealer already at hole 9, very close to 4th Street CPZ 95-99, slowing down the game should be to my advantage. Choosing defense at the outset, will now go for some pegs and lead 3d and take pegs as offered. There are only six of 91 discard combinations that score two or less points in excess of 40% when tossed to opponent. The 9-Q 4.120 (1,672) 4/91 scores two or less 42.224 % of the time. If needing to slow the game down, look for these opportunities with 2-3-3-7 or 2-2-3-8. You'll e surprised how often these combinations appear and they often allow the discard of 10-K, 9-K,9-Q, 10-Q, etc. to opponent crib. A couple of zero cribs per game often give an edge to the opposing player. Try it - you'll like it!
Ras2829 says: "hole 9" above should be 94. Wouldn't be concerned at all if opponent were at 9.
Guest says: Hi Ras, I've been holding this hand a lot more since you and the Jazzman have helped me see the benefits. I have also done better by thinking of "slowing them down", rather than speeding myself up. Works better for me than offense/defense and on/off. Was nice to see you in Reno . S :)
Inushtuk1 says: Well I don’t know. If *you* were my opponent at hole 9 I might be a *little* concerned. : - ). But on a more serious note I have a question from 2 days ago. You wrote, “I will take the first two pegs offered. Needing four to win, it seldom works to pass up the first two. Needing three I would play defense to the lead as Halscrib Cox has chosen.” This makes perfect sense to me. But I’m looking at my notes from the classes you gave 7 years ago. Week 6: End Of Game Pegging - Basic Premises - for Dealer, Point 3. “If dealer needs three or more points to win, taking first two pegs available is often only chance to win game. Another opportunity to score two points may not present itself.” Chart 29 states the same thing. I have listened to the video on end game pegging from last fall. It seems you did not make any changes there. So was this a tiny slip on your part? Or am I just being way too picky... again?
Gougie00 says: I sat next to Sharlene one Sunday and she let some old-timer peg backwards all the way to first street. Her 94 point win was tainted, and its the reason you now have to tell your opponent he's going the wrong way.
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1; There's a very fine line between the need for four pegs or three pegs in end-game situations. Think it I about 50/50 split on win/loss results when skipping the first two pegs needing three. Based on my playing experience those percentages jump to about 75/25 when needing four pegs and taking the first two offered. Whether you take the first two needing three pegs does depend somewhat on where your opponent is sitting. If opponent is 7 holes out would take the first two every time. If opponent four holes out, with my need for three pegs, would skip the two if by pairing could lead to six pegs for opponent and the win. Situations are so fluid in this wonderful game that the best of playing rules need to be tempered with some flexibility. Many who play this game (most likely a vast majority) have few guidelines by which they play. The videos attempt to provide guidelines by which players will improve the quality of the decisions made relative to retention, discard, pegging, and board position. Application of those principles will result in improved game skills and win percentages on a stand-alone basis. Some players will reach the point in development (as you have) where they will begin to see that there needs to be some "wiggle room" within any framework of principles. Hope that comes close to an answer to the seeming inconsistency, though small.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. No that’s not a small answer. And thanks for the promp reply.
Inushtuk1 says: Prompt.
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Thursday 3:01 PM
I think its 4pts with the nice safe 9-Q or 6pts with the gapper:

2-3-3-Q: 6pts - 5¼pts (Schell: 5.26) = ¾pt

2-3-3-7: 4pts - 4pts (Schell: 4.11) = 0pt

Potential:

2-3-3-Q: Improves with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 5555, 777, 999 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444 + 15xXs = 28 cuts.

2-3-3-7: Improves with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 5555, 777, 8888, 999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 5555, 777 + 15xXs = 35 cuts.

Pegging:

I think 2-3-3-7 will peg slightly better.

Position:

We're well behind and Dealer is nealy at 4th street positional hole. Its easier to slow opponent down than speed up so I'll play Defense.

Summary:

2-3-3-7 has more cuts for improvement and many cuts for 8-12pts. It also has a much safer discard in 9-Q. So although 2-3-3-Q starts with ¾pt more I'll select the 9-Q to throw.
Coeurdelion says: Oops! 6666 also improves 2-3-3-7 of course so 100.0%. Even more reason to keep 2-3-3-7 8-)
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 3:52 PM
At 87-94* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and win/Loss %s are:

_________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand___Pegs___Crib___Total___W2 %____W3 %
2-3-3-Q___9.57+(-2.52)+(-5.24)=1.81____14.6____39.0
2-3-3-9___7.91+(-2.37)+(-4.41)=1.13____11.5____35.4
2-3-3-7___8.04+(-2.70)+(-4.23)=1.11____12.7____40.2

Offense______L2 %____L3 %
2-3-3-Q______38.2____52.4
2-3-3-9______34.7____56.7
2-3-3-7______32.8____51.5

2-3-3-Q is 0.68pt best for expected averages and it is slightly best for Win %s but 2-3-3-7 is much lower for Loss %s because of the safe discard. As its a critical board position and I'm recommending Defense I'll select 9-Q to discard.

After the 8 cut I'll lead a 3 and play Optimally (cautious offense):

Lead__________Net Pegging Pts.
3__________________+0.01
2_________________(-0.82)
7_________________(-1.07)
jethrotulll
298 votes

Joined: May 2016

 
 
 
Thursday 10:20 PM
Yup