Sunday 3:04 AM

rewarded with a fortunate cut. perhaps 9-10 can get filled also. dec

   

Sunday 3:08 AM

I prefer Toss (9 T) over Toss (6 9) here.

   

Sunday 3:12 AM

I, too tossed 9-T. Hand has the higher expected average and more cuts for 16 points vs. 12 pts (toss 6-9).

   

Sunday 3:53 AM

4-4-7-10 (6-9) won't allow:

X(10)-4(14)-X(24)-7(31/2),
X(10)-4(14)-5(19)-6(25/3+1),

like 4-4-6-7 (9-10) could, but assuming average progress, Pone will be dealing from 26+10= hole 36 in the next hand, (8 or so holes behind par). Having the 10 as an escape card, should I get trapped in the pegging somehow, may well help me to maintain Pone's disadvantage.

   

Sunday 5:43 AM

Flew from the gut again today. Toss 9-10, touching cards in the crib. At this position I think we should aim for best expected average, and checking my work with discardpro I think this is the correct toss.

After the stupendous cut I would play off, off, off.

   

Sunday 6:34 AM

I was looking for a 5, but a 4 will do nicely. The 9-10 might attract friends in the crib. Marginal position means I'll be pegging cautiously. I think ... I would like to be at hole 40 and I think I can attain that.

   

Sunday 8:48 AM

My strategy is optimal. But no matter your stance what’s not to like about this keep. We have the highest expected average this way; and the best offensive, defensive, or optimal peggers. We have the two card eleven *and* the (4-6), *and* (6-7) five card traps. Of course the (6-7) trap goes out the window on any X-card lead. But that still leaves us with the even better (4-6) five card trap on the second play series. To wit: X(10)-7(17)-X(27)-4(31-2)/X(10)-6(16)-5(21)-4(25-4). I’ll admit if Pone knows what s/he is doing, that 5 will be led to start the second play series, and they get away.

As in life, good decisions are often rewarded. We can play defense now, knowing we are at hole 39 minimum, and probably further than that.

   

Sunday 9:51 AM

I think its between 4-4-7-10 (6-9) and 4-4-6-7 (9-10):

4-4-7-10: 4pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.13) = +9¼pts

4-4-6-7: 4pts + 4¼pts (Schell: 4.29) = +8¼pts

Potential:

4-4-7-10: Improves with AAAA, 44, 5555, 777, 8888, 101010 = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 8/12pts with AAAA, 44, 777 = 9 cuts.

4-4-6-7: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 44, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 999 = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 8/9/12/16pts with 44, 5555, 777, 8888 = 13 cuts.

Pegging:

I think 4-4-6-7 will peg slightly better playing Offense. Perhaps playing Defense 4-4-7-10 will be better.

Position:

We've both scored the average 26pts so it looks like we were First Dealer and its deal 3. I'll continue to play Defense.

Summary:

4-4-7-10 starts with 1pt more than 4-4-6-7 but the latter has more cuts for improvement and more cuts for an average/good hand and even up to 16pts with a 5 cut for 4-4-6-7. It may be more difficult to play Defense with but even so I'll throw the touching cards 9-10. If a 5 or 8 is cut we could have a good hand and box.

   

Sunday 12:19 PM

Even Gougie got this one right.

   

Sunday 1:58 PM

At 26*-26 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W7 %____W8 %
4-4-6-7___6.70+(-1.93)+4.15=8.92____32.7____49.0
4-4-7-10__5.43+(-2.24)+5.04=8.23____30.8____48.5

Defense______L7 %____L8 %
4-4-6-7______24.5____26.9
4-4-7-10_____23.8____27.3

4-4-6-7 is better for expected averages by 0.69Pt and is slightly better for Win %s and equal for Loss %s so I'll select 9-10 to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.