April 18, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)
119-116*  ?
24%
21%
12%
11%
7%
6%
5%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 193
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:06 AM
In order to WIN, we need to move Two Holes, and we have a *combined* Two Ways we might do this.

We could either PEG or (because we are Pone), we can use the privilege of our First Hand Show (and of course we can do BOTH).

However, we must first observe that we do have a few obstacles in our path: First of all, with the Dealer at Hole 116, she or he could peg Five Holes before we peg Two Holes, and we could lose during the pegging.

Furthermore, since we were dealt no Jacks, there is the possibility that precisely 4 DIV 46 equals 0.087 or about 9% of the time, we shall Cut a Jack. This would place the Dealer at Hole 118, which would become a much more serious pegging threat.

Since this involves a Pegging Battle, we must decide whether to adopt an *offensive* posture or whether we might do better to play *defense* today. Pegging Two Holes as Pone may *seem* easy, but often it is NOT!

And additionally, this puzzle is not specifically about how we might peg Two Holes: more appropriately, this puzzle is rather more precisely about whether it is EASIER for us as Pone to peg Two Holes *as opposed to* whether we might PREVENT the Dealer from first pegging Five Holes before we can peg Two Holes.

This distinction is very important, because if we didn't have First Hand Show, we would merely be required to analyze which card arrangement is best for pegging Two Holes. And if this were the case, I contend that we would probably simply focus upon retaining our "smaller" card ranks via Keep (5 7 7 9) and Toss (T K).

However, if we decide to adopt a *defensive* stance here, we would probably consider "pitching" our dangerous pegging cards, and maybe try something such as Keep (5 7 9 K) and Toss (7 T) or we might also look at something like Keep (7 7 T K) and Toss (5 9). Note that while perhaps even more dangerous during the pegging, that we couldn't Toss (5 7), since then we would be holding onto a Zero-Point Hand!

THEREFORE: How might we hold onto at LEAST Two Points, and also peg *defensively* here, while also allowing for (in the case of a Jack Cut) an ability or possibility to also "switch" (if necessary) to an *offensive* approach? And, 'dumping' the PAIR of 7 Cards comes to mind!

Since we were dealt half of the 7 Cards, this tends to weaken them as *offensive* pegging cards, as these are much less likely to be useful as cards that could PAIR a Dealer Card during the pegging. But if we Keep (5 9 T K), we also have a "wide" variety that could also peg quite *defensively* as well. And last (but of course not least) is that this selection does meet the criteria of holding at least Two Points, to be used during "First Hand Show."

Thus I shall Keep (5 9 T K) and Toss (7 7) today and I'll *probably* lead the Ten Card, which can score (and bring us an *immediate* Victory!) after Seventeen replies (555, 8888, 999, JJJJ, KKK).

If we don't Cut a Jack today, and if we don't score *soon* (on our second card played during the pegging) here, then I would plan to adopt a *defensive* pegging strategy throughout the remainder of the pegging. However...

Bingo: A Jack Appears! Now, I may instead lead the King, and in doing so, retain our "touching" cards (9 T) in case we need to peg *offensively* (which may now occur), since we begin at (119-118*) today, which is vastly different than beginning with a Dealer at Hole 116!
JQT says: It's now vital to know that, if indeed the Dealer does score upon our Lead Card, that since the Dealer will also peg One Point (more) for either a "go" or for "Last Card," that in such a case, we would be *forced* into an *offensive* pegging battle. Thus if the Dealer can either PAIR our lead or score (15-2) on our lead, we would now have to score Two Holes during the pegging or we would LOSE THE GAME. The Ten Card or King lead at least allows us a chance to parry a (15-2) play by the Dealer, and it's important for us to "cover" our Lead Card in such fashion as much as possible. If our King Lead is PAIRED, then we would play our Ten Card, bringing the Count up to Thirty, which would hopefully produce a "go" and One Point for us as Pone. Now, we would be "half way home" and the he Dealer would have to lead, and "turning the table" in this manner is what we should attempt to do. But remember: if the Dealer scores upon our Lead Card (after the Jack Cut), it's now an All-Out Pegging Battle, because we shall *never* get to score First Hand Show!
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: Good analysis and you have great support for your choice in HalscribCLX.
james500
3922 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:36 AM
On the assumption that Dealer will take the first pegs available, I'll lead 7d. If paired, I have another 7 for 21/6; if they play an 8 for 15/2, I play my 9 for 24/3. In fact, I can win with the play of my second card after 16 initial responses from the Dealer, (AAAA,77,8888,999,KKK). Had I kept the 5 rather than the King, I could've won after 20 initial responses, (AAAA,3333,555,77,8888,999), but I think the 5 is probably "too hot to handle" at this stage of the game, and I'd like to have the King as an escape card.
JQT says: I mentioned Seventeen ways to win after the Dealer responds if we Toss (7 7), but this of course was the analysis *before* seeing the Cut Card; note that after seeing the Jack Cut, that this is now reduced down to Sixteen winning responses (same as james' initial pick).
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:39 AM
I will take the time to read JQT's assessment of our position today. These are the cards that I have chosen to hold as I login to todays hand.
His analysis of the situation is spot on and I can understand his decision to keep the hand he has chosen. He certainly take the game of cribbage to a new higher level in his analysis.
JQT says: Hello Rosemarie, Your selection of Toss (7 T) is one that I did consider quite highly, and it may get the job done today! I find that during such close endgame, it's best to remain as flexible as possible. The Jack Cut really does change the nature of this puzzle enormously.
Rosemarie44 says: Hi JQT: In all fairness this was the hand I had chosen to login with before seeing your analysis. Awesome analysis, JQT! Both you and Ras are great teachers in the game of cribbage.
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:37 AM
Can't remember what happened. I like James suggestion throw 5 - 10. Lead 7. Likely response is a 4 or a face care. If a 4 I play my 9. He gets one for out and I lead my second 9. I prefer to throw 10 not K guessing oppo is more likely to play a K on my lead thinking I will not have kept that.
JQT says: From the perspective of the player who resides on the 'other side of the board' today, who begins at Hole 116 (before seeing the Jack Cut), and with Pone at Hole 119, such a Dealer must retain a Hand that can ostensibly peg Five Holes, and do so before Pone can peg Two Holes, a rather tall order! I agree that during the pegging, a King Response by such a Dealer would be an ideal way to attempt to defensively 'dodge' a Pone who merely needs to peg Two Points here, but the actual *bias* to initially retain a King in the first place would probably be quite LOW. Therefore, while it would certainly be a good card for the Dealer to have and to play in such an instance, I think the likelihood of a Dealer actually holding a King (and not discarding it) in the first place would be extremely low. In such a scenario (again, before seeing the Jack Cut), I think the Dealer's best option would be to 'aim' for obtaining a "go" where he/she can then either attempt to self-pair, along with getting said "go" or obtaining a (31-2); or, to attempt to 'squeeze in' the scoring of a small-card RUN such as A-2-3, etc. Thus, if the Dealer was initially dealt any number of usable "small" cards, I think he/she would "dump" any King (or even Kings). The only time I believe the Dealer might be holding a King is if she/he was dealt at least TWO of them, and also was NOT dealt any useful series of "small" cards. Thoughts or ideas?
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:38 AM
'second 7' I mean
Gougie00
5729 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:36 AM
The Jack cut made my task a little harder. Lead the 7. If the dealer engages with a 8, the game is over. If the dealer plays a face, the 9 will be played, setting up the 31 perhaps. If the dealer holds a face and a 5, I'm toast.
Jazzselke
2586 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 7:09 AM
When dealer is in desperation offensive mode always advantageous to lead from a pair. In this case also have a winning response if an 8 is played on our 7. And the 10 would more likely be retained by our opponent than a K IMO, and could logically be a response to our 7 lead.
Inushtuk1
1485 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 7:55 AM
I’ve kept two points. I have a fairly wide spread of cards for defense, but two sets of gappers, and one set of touchers, should I need to switch to offense. I’ll lead the 7, knowing where another one is. I do have 21 replies that put me out. (3333,555,6666,8888,999,101010). Yeah right! A 5, 6, or 9 response is highly unlikely. But both the 3, the 8, and the 10 are *very* logical responses.

horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Wednesday 8:35 AM
I tossed 7-9 but I don't think it was the right choice reading other people's comments!
dec
6357 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 1:50 PM
I like leading from the pair of course a Jack cut increases their chances. dec
Coeurdelion
5593 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Wednesday 2:59 PM
I'll keep 4 different cards with 2pts and the close cards. So I'll throw the 7-K.
Ras2829
5153 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:03 PM
There is no "pegging war" here with my needing two points with first count. The only way dealer can win is to peg those six holes. Turning that Jack makes all the difference in the world as dealer often pegs 4 holes. Think the 5-7-9-K protects me the most in either case. Will lead the 7. If dealer socres`15-2, RAS wins with the play of the nine for run of three. If dealer kept an escape card knowing that I need two points to win, a King would be the safest if that showed among his six cards. If King retained and not able to peg on my 7 lead, dealer would drop the King, and n/d would win by pairing. If dealer should pair the 7 lead, will advance the count to 24. Would like to rid my hand of the 5 spot prior to final pegging sequence. Just have to see how that unfolds. Another end-game puzzle of real quality. Admittedly it was the cut of the Jack which makes this puzzle of such quality.
HalscribCLX
5316 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:08 PM
At 119-116* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the Peg Out %, Dealer Peg Out % and Hold Enough %s are:

Defense____Peg Out %___Dlr Peg Out %___Hold Out %
5-9-10-K_____34.7__________1.9___________100.0
5-7-9-10_____30.7__________1.7___________100.0
5-7-10-K_____29.6__________0.9___________100.0
5-7-9-K______28.5__________1.4___________100.0
7-9-10-K_____28.1__________1.4____________80.2
5-7-7-10_____12.8__________1.4___________100.0
5-7-7-K______12.8__________1.3___________100.0
5-7-7-9______11.0__________2.0___________100.0
7-7-9-10______8.4__________1.3___________100.0
7-7-10-K______6.6__________0.7___________100.0
7-7-9-K_______6.6__________1.2___________100.0

5-9-10-K is best for chances of pegging out and still has a reasonably low chance of Dealer pegging out so I'll select 7-7 to discard. After the J cut I'll lead the 10 and play Defense:

Lead________Dealer's Pegging Pts.____Win %
10________________(-1.34)____________57.4
9_________________(-1.36)____________33.7
K_________________(-1.39)____________48.7
5_________________(-1.45)____________19.2
Hillchem
2910 votes

Joined: April 2015
 
 
 
Thursday 12:09 AM
First, let me say that I was with Andy and James today.

Secondly, I can definitely follow the Halscrib choice. JQT above teaches us quite well how it can be considered the favourite.

However, looking solely at the numbers in the Halscrib analysis in the absence of anything else, I would wonder whether the bot's evidence might support 5-7-10-K.

Is this a valid argument?
If choosing 5-9-10-K, Probability (loss) = Probability (we do NOT peg out AND dealer pegs out) = 0.653 x 0.019 = 0.012407 = 1.2%

If choosing 5-7-10-K, Probability (loss) = Probability (we do NOT peg out AND dealer pegs out) = 0.704 x 0.009 = 0.006336 = 0.6%

Assuming Hals numbers are bullet-proof, I wonder whether you would lose 1 out of 81 games with toss 7-7 and lose 1 out of 158 with toss 7-9.

Too much sabermetrics here, perhaps?
JQT says: When a risk can be reduced by 50% it would appear that this is a beneficial endeavor, but in either case as mentioned, this is talking about an issue with close to a 1% probability of occurring! Meanwhile, by 'ditching' the PAIR, we boost our Win Rate by a clear 4% over the Next Best choice, and by greater than 5% over the choice (5 7 T K) under consideration. The fact is, simply by being dealt half of the 7 Cards, this reduces their effectiveness for *offensive* use during the pegging. And since these cards are also main "Connecting Cards" they possibly may also become dangerous during *defensive* pegging maneuvers. This might explain how I arrived at my conclusion to 'ditch' the PAIR of 7 Cards today, and I think it also helps to explain why the computer program concurs with this decision. And if you look at the distribution of how the program lists each of the possible eleven hands today, it becomes abundantly clear that the 7 Cards are more of a liability than a strength in this scenario.
JQT says: What the program does not show, however, is how things drastically change after we find out that a Jack Cut has occurred, and now we start at (119-118*)! This, in my opinion, will only tend to *magnify* the numbers and results given by Halscrib (and yes, even my own analysis), in what is now very likely and clearly about to become an *offensive* pegging battle. And while the risks of the Dealer pegging out have without a doubt now risen greatly, so too have the weaknesses of those 7 Cards (due to having been dealt half of them) also gone way up. What is it that makes PAIRS sometimes so helpful (especially defensively) and other times so detrimental (especially offensively)? I contend that today it is quite simple: The Score! When we only need TWO POINTS in order to win, it alters almost everything! PAIRS suddenly become a liability, simply because the odds that the Dealer was ever dealt any of these 7 Cards has now suddenly been reduced in half. And when we only need Two Points in order to WIN, that really matters. In fact, today, I think that it's mostly what matters.