May 12, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
109-102*  ?
34%
33%
27%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 121

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dec
4150 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Saturday 3:09 AM
I went for defense here. Three lead thinking dealer might back off on the pegging. dec
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Rosemarie44
923 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Saturday 3:25 AM
Agree with dec, balk the crib with 9-Q worth only 2 points in opponent's crib most of the time. Dealer could be around 118 with a really good hand and crib next hand as pone.
This hand adds up to a "sweet sixteen" and has a 2 card eleven.

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james500
1859 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Saturday 3:38 AM
I see the flush, but I'll choose 9-Q also. 3-4 seems far too risky here.
The cut of a 2 or 3 increases my hand to 8 points; a 4,7, or 8 to 6 points.
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Gougie00
3599 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Saturday 4:16 AM
No combination gives me 12 so I'll poison the crib. I may have played myself into a close loss.
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glmccuskey
2735 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Saturday 5:11 AM
Nice cut. I’ll lead the four and take reasonably safe pegs. I don’t necessarily need to go out this hand. I just need to get close enough to peg out next hand.
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JQT
2377 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Saturday 5:59 AM
At THIS POSITION, and with THESE CARDS, we should look for the SAFEST DISCARD.

Our goal before the Cut should be to get CLOSE ENOUGH to go out pegging as Next Dealer.

This would require us to get to Hole 117 or beyond, which the Cut (surprise!) has *already done* for us.

But since we now only need to peg Four Points, we might be prudent to take these holes now, during This Deal, *if* they come to us without too much danger.

What we don't want to do however is come up One Point Shy after having given up a half a dozen or more 'easy' pegs to the Dealer.

I might just lead the Ace.
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Inushtuk1
625 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Saturday 8:06 AM
I’m with the usual suspects. And leading my 4. All 4 cards make a “Sweet Sixteen”. But we’re not likely to get both the (15-2) *and* the (31-2). If we score the (15-2) Dealer is not likely to dump his 5 at that point. But still, it would be nice.
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dgergens
143 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Saturday 11:15 AM
My logic was correct, looking for safest discard, but I don't have the discard tables memorized that you guys do. So I thought A,Q was pretty safe, and went with that to keep the touching 8,9.
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Coeurdelion
3556 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Saturday 12:41 PM
A straight choice between the flush and A-3-4-8? A tricky decision as we would at least like to get close enough to peg out next deal. On the other hand we want to be defensive enough not to let Dealer get out this deal or get too close for next deal:

A-8-9-Q: 4pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.96) = -1¾pts

A-3-4-8: 2pts - 4pts (Schell: 4.11) = -2pts

Potential:

A-8-9-Q: Improves with AAA, 444, 5555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999, 10101010, QQQ = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 7/8/9pts with 5555, 6666, 7777, 10101010 = 16 cuts. Plus 9 hearts for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

A-3-4-8: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 7777, 888 + 15xXs = 43 cuts = 43/46 = 93.5% up to 5/6/8pts with 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 7777, 888 = 21 cuts.

Pegging:

A-3-4-8 should peg well with 3 low cards and a high card but pegging Defensively the flush, I think, will be better and hard to read.

Summary:

The flush is only ¼pt better for starting value but does have the extra 0.2pt for heart cuts. Although the flush has fewer cuts for improvement and less cuts for an average hand but it has a better maximum and 12 cuts for 8/9pts. So I'll risk the 3-4 toss.
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HalscribCLX
3321 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Saturday 1:54 PM
At 109-102* playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging
the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Net
Optimal___Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total____W1 %___W2 %
A-3-4-8___5.00+(-0.52)+(-4.21)= 0.27_____8.1___31.2
A-8-9-Q___6.24+(-1.31)+(-5.75)=(-0.83)___10.6___30.0

Optimal_______L1 %___L2 %
A-3-4-8_______18.5___61.6
A-8-9-Q_______19.0___74.3

A-3-4-8 is best for expected averages by 1.10pt and although the flush is slightly better for Win %s A-3-4-8 is very much better for Loss %s. So I'll select the 9-Q to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll lead the 4 and play Offense:

Lead_________Our Pegging Pts.
4_________________1.97
A_________________1.85
8_________________1.78
3_________________1.33
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Ras2829
3099 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Saturday 2:51 PM
With dealer needing 19 points to win, will choose that low scoring 9-Q as a discard, peg optimally as the deuce gives me 8 points, lead a four, score 15-2 if either a X-pointer or 8 spot played on the four offering. Think dealer will be playing off as knows has first count on next deal. So can't expect much help from dealer on pegging unless has a hand similar to mine. How does that 9-Q stack up with the A-Q? The 9-Q averages 4.120 (1,672) 4/91, scores two or less 42.224%, scores 3-7 44.898%, tallies 8-11 11.483%, and scores 12 or more 1.495%. The numbers for the A-Q benefit from the second most frequent discard made by dealer (2-3). The A-Q average is 4.236 (2,633) 9/91,scores two or less 36.232%, scores 3-7 46.299%, tallies 8-11 15.229%, and reaches 12 or more 2.24%. BTW there are only six discard choices to opponent that score 2 or fewer points in excess of 40%. What might they be?
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