May 13, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
54*-53  ?
65%
30%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 130

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james500
1859 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Sunday 3:14 AM
JQT has written on here extensively about the strength of 6-7, and how if we ignore "intrinsic points", it is one of the better discards available. I believe the original link he quotes is:
http://blog.cribbagepro.net/2012/10/discarding.html:

So whilst 2-3-3-7 (2-6) might be a fairly good option, I'll go with 2-2-3-3 (6-7).
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Rosemarie44
923 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Sunday 3:42 AM
If choosing for the highest expected averages, toss 6-7. This hand has 43 cuts, increasing the value of a 4 pts hand to over 6 points from a min of 4 pts to a maximum of 16.
Tossing 3-3 has 24 cuts for increasing the value of this hand from 6 points to a maximum of 12.
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dec
4150 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Sunday 3:51 AM
No I saw that 2-2-6-7, but I played the odds of sixteen facecards. dec
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JQT
2377 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Sunday 4:23 AM
Our position reflects that we need to avoid risks and look for optimal play.

What hurts about not retaining 2-2-6-7 is *not* the few supposed 'extra' points but the loss of that splendid three-card "Magic Eleven" (2-2-7), but is doesn't seem worth it for Toss (3 3), especially not with two Deuces in our hand!
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horus93
178 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Sunday 5:04 AM
I tossed 6-7 for the same reasons as everyone else.

If I was pone I think I'd have tossed 2-6.

After the cut I'd play "cautious offense"
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Gougie00
3599 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Sunday 5:16 AM
I wish I peaked at the starter ...

Somehow 3344 always gets help but 2233 and AA44 never do. Stupid 2 cut!

No choice but to engage in the pegging.
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glmccuskey
2735 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Sunday 5:29 AM
So it appears I’m off the rails today. I like this hold though. I keep eight points instead of four. If my opponent has face cards and fives I get to play my 7-2-2 for 31 for 4 in the pegging.
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Jazzselke
1034 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Sunday 6:22 AM
Many cuts for 12 or more, and negative delta if tossing the threes.
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Goatman
534 votes

Joined: March 2017

   
Sunday 9:50 AM
Seems when I keep 2233 or 44AA I always cut to the full house. Therefore I'll drop the threes to my crib. I like my pegging chances better with the 2267. I'll at least have an escape card if I need one.
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dgergens
143 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Sunday 1:19 PM
Aftr reading everyone's justifications, and doing some analysis, I see that 2233 is probably the better hand to keep (from a scoring perspective). Although starting a 4 points, every single cut adds points, with the majority of cuts resulting in a 12 point hand. What about pegging? I personally prefer the 2267 to do battle with.
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jethrotulll
298 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Sunday 2:04 PM
Just as a curiosity, since there are some here that no longer play tournament cribbage, are any or you playing on gamecolony.com for $$? You can play for as little as .50 cents a game. I believe the ACC and gamecolony have a sponsorship agreement.
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Ras2829
3099 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Sunday 2:12 PM
There ae very few hands in cribbage as dealer where starting with four points and zero known to crib is preferable to holding six points with a known two points in crib (2-2-6-7 with 3-3 discard). This is one of them among very few. Thus the reason for the puzzle. Can you think of other dealer hands in which holding four points and discarding zero is preferable to holding six points in hand and discarding two points? Agree with Goatman as to the frequency of cutting to the full house with these cards. And he's no nanny! Even so combined values (avg. potential pegs, hand score, and crib score) will give the edge to retaining 2-2-3-3 with 6-7 discard. Have chosen an optimal pegging strategy with opponent at hole 53 as needs to reach 3rd street CPZ of 69-73 for upcoming deal. So will peg cautiously as RAS enjoys a good positional advantage on this deal. Opponent is likely to deal from about hole 62 unless I get reckless in the pegging.
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Coeurdelion
3556 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Sunday 2:21 PM
6pts with 3-3 or 4pts with 2-2-3-3 (6-7):

2-2-6-7: 6pts + 5ūpts (Schell: 5.94) = 11ūpts

2-2-3-3: 4pts + 5pts (Schell: 4.98) = 9pts

Potential:

2-2-6-7: Improves with 22, 4444, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 9999 = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 11/12pts with 22, 5555, 666, 777, 8888 = 16 cuts.

2-2-3-3: Improves with AAAA, 22, 33, 4444, 5555, 777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 43 cuts = 93.5% up to 8/12/16pts with AAAA, 22, 33, 4444, 777, 8888 + 16xXs = 35 cuts.

Pegging:

I think 2-2-3-3 will peg better with the lower, close cards.

Position:

If we score the average 16pts we will ne at 3rd street positional hole as Non-Dealer well ahead of opponent whoh if they score the average of 10pts will be at 63pts. I'll play Defense to maintain my positional advantage.

Summary:

2-2-3-3 has a 2ūpt deficit in starting value but the potential of 2-2-3-3 is very much greater. It has more cuts for improvement, more for a average/good/ very good hand and a better maximum. It also should peg better. Both hands will suffer negative delta because of the 2s held. I think 2-2-3-3 will more than make up the 2ūpts so I'll throw the 6-7.
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HalscribCLX
3321 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Sunday 2:49 PM
At 54*-53 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Pone's
Defense___Hand___Pegs___Crib_Total____W5 %____W6 %
2-2-3-3___10.17+(-2.07)+4.71=12.81____54.8____65.3
2-2-6-7____8.26+(-2.04)+5.22=11.44____49.2____65.2

Defense_______L5 %____L6 %
2-2-3-3_______28.1____16.4
2-2-6-7_______24.9____16.7

2-2-3-3 is 1.37pts better for expected averages and appreciably better for Win %s. 2-2-6-7 is better for Loss %s but even so I'll select 6-7 to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
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