May 13, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
54*-53  ?
65%
30%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 130
james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Sunday 3:14 AM
JQT has written on here extensively about the strength of 6-7, and how if we ignore "intrinsic points", it is one of the better discards available. I believe the original link he quotes is:
http://blog.cribbagepro.net/2012/10/discarding.html:

So whilst 2-3-3-7 (2-6) might be a fairly good option, I'll go with 2-2-3-3 (6-7).
james500 says: I was so keen to keep some combo of twos and threes together, that I was blind to the 2-2-6-7 (3-3) option. Part "double run hopenisis", part "nickels and dimes" view. Good cut for those who did discard 3-3.
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Sunday 3:42 AM
If choosing for the highest expected averages, toss 6-7. This hand has 43 cuts, increasing the value of a 4 pts hand to over 6 points from a min of 4 pts to a maximum of 16.
Tossing 3-3 has 24 cuts for increasing the value of this hand from 6 points to a maximum of 12.
Rosemarie44 says: increasing the value of a 4 points hand to over 6 points is expected average of 10.20 points.
Rosemarie44 says: Happy Mother's Day to all of you out there.
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 3:51 AM
No I saw that 2-2-6-7, but I played the odds of sixteen facecards. dec
JQT
4136 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 4:23 AM
Our position reflects that we need to avoid risks and look for optimal play.

What hurts about not retaining 2-2-6-7 is *not* the few supposed 'extra' points but the loss of that splendid three-card "Magic Eleven" (2-2-7), but is doesn't seem worth it for Toss (3 3), especially not with two Deuces in our hand!
horus93
1272 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Sunday 5:04 AM
I tossed 6-7 for the same reasons as everyone else.

If I was pone I think I'd have tossed 2-6.

After the cut I'd play "cautious offense"
Gougie00
5702 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 5:16 AM
I wish I peaked at the starter ...

Somehow 3344 always gets help but 2233 and AA44 never do. Stupid 2 cut!

No choice but to engage in the pegging.
glmccuskey
4075 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Sunday 5:29 AM
So it appears I’m off the rails today. I like this hold though. I keep eight points instead of four. If my opponent has face cards and fives I get to play my 7-2-2 for 31 for 4 in the pegging.
Goatman says: I think you're still on the rail Gary...I'll ride it with you.
Jazzselke
2569 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Sunday 6:22 AM
Many cuts for 12 or more, and negative delta if tossing the threes.
Jazzselke says: That 5 dueces is a great hand!?!
james500 says: It sure is: 20 points for 5 of a kind, plus 4 for the flush. Makes a change from the more conventional 44556 24. I wonder why it keeps appearing day after day?
cribbagepogo says: Magic, the specter of Suckling.
Goatman
2502 votes

Joined: March 2017

 
 
 
Sunday 9:50 AM
Seems when I keep 2233 or 44AA I always cut to the full house. Therefore I'll drop the threes to my crib. I like my pegging chances better with the 2267. I'll at least have an escape card if I need one.
Goatman says: With the cut of the 2, 12 in hand and I am most positive I received 10/K to my crib for 10...lucky me.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018

 
 
 
Sunday 1:19 PM
Aftr reading everyone's justifications, and doing some analysis, I see that 2233 is probably the better hand to keep (from a scoring perspective). Although starting a 4 points, every single cut adds points, with the majority of cuts resulting in a 12 point hand. What about pegging? I personally prefer the 2267 to do battle with.
jethrotulll
298 votes

Joined: May 2016

 
 
 
Sunday 2:04 PM
Just as a curiosity, since there are some here that no longer play tournament cribbage, are any or you playing on gamecolony.com for $$? You can play for as little as .50 cents a game. I believe the ACC and gamecolony have a sponsorship agreement.
Guest says: You can play fro free on ecribbage.com, which was developed by an ACC member. I started playing on there 9 years ago. S :) btw,I am the player who dealt you your first 28th had at GN in WI as we were both lamenting never having one lol.
Guest says: for*
jethrotulll says: Funny. I vaguely remember that. Yes e-cribbage.com is a great site for free play. gamecolony.com for $$ play.
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 2:12 PM
There ae very few hands in cribbage as dealer where starting with four points and zero known to crib is preferable to holding six points with a known two points in crib (2-2-6-7 with 3-3 discard). This is one of them among very few. Thus the reason for the puzzle. Can you think of other dealer hands in which holding four points and discarding zero is preferable to holding six points in hand and discarding two points? Agree with Goatman as to the frequency of cutting to the full house with these cards. And he's no nanny! Even so combined values (avg. potential pegs, hand score, and crib score) will give the edge to retaining 2-2-3-3 with 6-7 discard. Have chosen an optimal pegging strategy with opponent at hole 53 as needs to reach 3rd street CPZ of 69-73 for upcoming deal. So will peg cautiously as RAS enjoys a good positional advantage on this deal. Opponent is likely to deal from about hole 62 unless I get reckless in the pegging.
Ras2829 says: BTW the deuce is a pretty solid cut with these cards as hand has increased from 4 points to 8 and the 2 on the deck is the only small card of direct benefit to 6-7 discard. That often results in six or seven points in dealer crib with 6-K, 6-Q, 6-10, 8-K, 8-Q, etc. discards from non-dealer.
Ras2829 says: Strange as it may seem the four small cards actually have a slight pegging edge over the 2-2-6-7 in any pegging strategy. Based on my scant empirical evidence the edge is less than ,.1 of a point though prevails in defense, optimal, or offense. Just did a query on Cribbage Prof and about the same pegging edge is shown for holding 2-2-3-3. So the pegging values of four cards of less than five in value outweighs the magic of the 2-2-7.
Guest says: In answer t the question. 2.2-3-3-6-6. Keeping 4 plus 2 is better than 8 plus 2. Are there more?
Guest says: Guest was Iushtuk1.
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: Really late getting back to you. The only other one I can think of in the league of your 2-2-3-3-6-6 is the similar 2-2-3-3-9-9. Believe I have submitted the latter in upcoming puzzles.
Coeurdelion
5573 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Sunday 2:21 PM
6pts with 3-3 or 4pts with 2-2-3-3 (6-7):

2-2-6-7: 6pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.94) = 11¾pts

2-2-3-3: 4pts + 5pts (Schell: 4.98) = 9pts

Potential:

2-2-6-7: Improves with 22, 4444, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 9999 = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 11/12pts with 22, 5555, 666, 777, 8888 = 16 cuts.

2-2-3-3: Improves with AAAA, 22, 33, 4444, 5555, 777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 43 cuts = 93.5% up to 8/12/16pts with AAAA, 22, 33, 4444, 777, 8888 + 16xXs = 35 cuts.

Pegging:

I think 2-2-3-3 will peg better with the lower, close cards.

Position:

If we score the average 16pts we will ne at 3rd street positional hole as Non-Dealer well ahead of opponent whoh if they score the average of 10pts will be at 63pts. I'll play Defense to maintain my positional advantage.

Summary:

2-2-3-3 has a 2¾pt deficit in starting value but the potential of 2-2-3-3 is very much greater. It has more cuts for improvement, more for a average/good/ very good hand and a better maximum. It also should peg better. Both hands will suffer negative delta because of the 2s held. I think 2-2-3-3 will more than make up the 2¾pts so I'll throw the 6-7.
Ras2829 says: Hi Coeurdelion: Your contribution to this website in terms of analysis and insights to this website has been of immense value over a very long period. Thanks so much and hang in there pardner!
Ras2829 says: Scratch one of "to this website" and the above will read a lot more smoothly.
Guest says: Whole heartedly agree! The way you break things down is much more sensible to me than the % things, especially in the 'potential' sections. Thanks again! S :)
Coeurdelion says: Thanks, Ras and S! I feel that I'm as likely to get it wrong as right lately and gut instinct is perhaps sometimes as good as over-analysing. But I'll keep peggin'. I notice that lately there has been some discussion about memorising the discard tables (which ever particular ones people choose to use) so at some point I'll post the rules I use to calculate the estimates for Schell's Discard tables. Perhaps someone will find them useful. I know I can't memorise them all.
HalscribCLX
5296 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 2:49 PM
At 54*-53 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Pone's
Defense___Hand___Pegs___Crib_Total____W5 %____W6 %
2-2-3-3___10.17+(-2.07)+4.71=12.81____54.8____65.3
2-2-6-7____8.26+(-2.04)+5.22=11.44____49.2____65.2

Defense_______L5 %____L6 %
2-2-3-3_______28.1____16.4
2-2-6-7_______24.9____16.7

2-2-3-3 is 1.37pts better for expected averages and appreciably better for Win %s. 2-2-6-7 is better for Loss %s but even so I'll select 6-7 to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.