May 14, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by acis1 on ecribbage.com
13-4*  ?
41%
24%
9%
8%
6%
5%
1%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 144

Continue playing here against a computer opponent or
Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

Rosemarie44
835 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Monday 3:05 AM
I am not about to hold 4 points and toss 6-9 to dealer. Going with a balking 9-Q and holding 2 points to start. Expected averages are a min of 2 points to maximum of 10 and expected average hand of 4.70 points. With the 4 cut we have 10 points and are not giving much to opponent.
Reply
james500
1774 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Monday 3:11 AM
Q-6 or Q-9 I think, rather than 6-9.
4 lead from 4-A-6 eleven may lead to 15/2 and 31/2.
Reply
JQT
2276 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Monday 3:20 AM
It's still very early in this game, and Toss (6 9) is a relatively safe way to throw Two Points.

Yes, the Dealer's most popular discard is indeed Toss (7 8), but that's being measured against ninety other discards.

There are still lots of Ten Cards remaining in that deck to be Cut, as well as Aces and 4 Cards, Twenty Cuts in fact to give us anything from Six Points on up to a Full Dozen!
Reply
dec
4055 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Monday 3:54 AM
Lets try to burry them here. defense. what par will they need after this hand? dec
Reply
Gougie00
3517 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Monday 4:43 AM
Defensive hedge
Reply
Jazzselke
985 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Monday 6:19 AM
The type of hand we see quite often. This highlights a discussion I hear sometimes : strict defense as first dealer at the beginning of the game; or do not play position until around Hole 45? In this particular case I choose the former with the opponent having such a bad start.
Reply
dgergens
99 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Monday 8:38 AM
The lesser of 3 evils. Historically I'v played pedal to the metal, maximize that hand, and here I would have to give my opponent one good pair, JQ, 4A, or 96. This site has taught/caused me to give my discards consideration, w/ regard to the upside potential for my opponent, a little more weight in the decision process. However, I'm still surprised how many people give it A LOT of consideration to the point where it's more important to NOT let them have points than it is to make points (end game notwithstanding). So, it was never an option to keep 4,6,J,A and only get two points. And in the end, even though I gave opponent 2 points with the 96, I felt that was a safer discard than 4,A
Reply
JRCeagle78
456 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Monday 10:01 AM
If I am going to toss 9-6 to the dealer it is best to be done on first street rather than fourth street. There are still plenty of X-cards available. With the 4h starter card and 2 pegging points I will get to hole 25 on my deal. A cautious offensive strategy may limit the dealer and give me a more advantageous position.
Reply
Inushtuk1
556 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Monday 11:28 AM
Iíd rather risk being slightly short as next dealer than letting our opponent back in the game.

I could have had 10 the other way. But I did manage to score 8. All while tossing the fourth lowest discard possible. As Ras mentioned the other day. there are only 6 discards to the opponentís crib that are worth 2 points or less; more than 40% of the time. This is one of them. The third best as it happens.

Knowing Iíll be dealing at the very end of my CPZ, in the worst case scenario Iíll continue pegging defensively with the 4 lead. Dumping my A on a 7, 8, 9 response. On the X-card response other than the J, again Iíll play my Ace and take that (15-2). Not sure whether the Ace or the J is best if Dealer plays a J. I think Ras mentioned in the *old* videos that taking the (15-2) was best with only two small cards, and taking the pair was best with three small cards in the hand. But his examples were slightly different on the videos than what I hold today. And it could be good to be rid of that J too. Iíll wait for Rasís comment.
Reply
Coeurdelion
3463 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Monday 1:26 PM
A-4-J-Q (6-9) and A-4-6-J (9-Q):

A-4-J-Q: 4pts - 6ľpts (Schell: 6.26) = -2ľpts

A-4-6-J: 2pts - 4pts (Schell: 4.11) = -2pts

Potential:

A-4-J-Q: Improves with AAA, 444, 5555 + 14xXs = 34 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 8/9/10pts with AAA, 444, 5555, 101010, JJJ, QQQ = 19 cuts. Plus 12 clubs for 1pts extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

A-4-6-J: Improves with AAA, 444, 5555, 666, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 6/8/9pts with AAA, 444, 5555, 101010 = 13 cuts. Plus 12 clubs for 1pts extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

Pegging:

I think A-4-6-J will peg better as it has 3 low cards and one high card plus a 3-card magic eleven.

Position:

It looks as if this is Deal 2 and opponent got off to a poor start. Nevertheless I'll carry on playing Defense.

Summary:

A-4-6-J has a ľpt better starting value and has more cyts for improvement although fewer to a lower maximum. Also A-4-6-J should peg well playing Defense. Playing Defense I'll throw the 9-Q.
Reply
HalscribCLX
3232 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Monday 4:10 PM
At 13-4* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total_____W8 %____W9 %
A-4-6-J___4.70+(-2.65)+(-4.07)=(-2.02)____24.7____47.4
A-4-9-J___4.70+(-2.61)+(-4.15)=(-2.06)____23.8____46.8
A-4-J-Q___6.78+(-3.11)+(-6.10)=(-2.43)____28.0____49.8

Defense_______L8 %____L9 %
A-4-6-J_______11.7____19.6
A-4-9-J_______11.2____19.6
A-4-J-Q_______14.2____19.9

A-4-6-J is only 0.04pt better than A-4-9-J nut is 0.46pt better than A-4-J-Q. Although A-4-J-Q is best for Win % its not the best for Loss %s. Surprisingly, perhaps, A-4-9-J is very slightly lower for Loss %s despite 6-Q being less safe. So as its very early in the game I'll place most emphasis on the expected averages and select 9-Q to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll lead the 4 and play Defense:

Lead_________ Dealer's Pegging Pts.
4___________________(-2.02)
A___________________(-2.06)
6___________________(-2.48)
J___________________(-2.52)
Reply
Ras2829
3009 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Monday 5:47 PM
The 9-Q has such low scoring potential to opponent crib that A-4-6-J for two points is preferable. With that 4 starter card, n/d knows that eight points have ben scored. Playing defense lead the four spot, dump the Ace next play if that looks feasible. Even better if we score 15-2 with dealer holding 5-X-X-X or 5-5-X-X or similar. If playing offense would have led the Ace which allows keeping 4-6 intact. Note that A-4-J-Q ranks third in combined value of the choices today. With opponent scoring only 4 points as non-dealer of first hand, it's def., def., def. for me. With a known 8 points on this hand, RAS will have good positional advantage for upcoming deal. Fine puzzle acis1!
Reply