May 15, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
67-75*  ?
53%
21%
12%
11%
0%
0%
Total votes: 154

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Rosemarie44
982 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Tuesday 3:34 AM
We would want to keep the 6-8-8 together and the jack of clubs for a chance to add 11 points to the hand. Tossing 2-Q is best for a hand that has a slightly higher expected average hand (2-13 points) and combined average (hand minus crib) than tossing the balking 6-Q.
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dec
4224 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Tuesday 4:38 AM
yeah for the good guys.. I think keeping the two for a possible two points to add in the big picture not worth to throw the faces. Lead eight of diamonds dump the Jack in sequence somewhere. dec
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Gougie00
3663 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Tuesday 4:49 AM
I went for the maximum and this time I got it. May as well, I was down by 8. Lead the 8, escape with the 8.
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james500
1922 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Tuesday 4:49 AM
Seriously thought about holding zero points and discarding Q-8, taking my chances that between the cut and some pegging I can move at least two holes. Q-6 should be safe enough though. 8h lead may attract a 5 response, 2h makes 15/2.
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JQT
2439 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Tuesday 5:42 AM
Trying to put the 'brakes' on Dealer's Crib.

The 7 Card Cut *still* helps us a lot as we will reach fairly deep into the Third Street CPZ.

Lead an 8 Card.
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Jazzselke
1079 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Tuesday 6:38 AM
Looking for a 7 regardless, and the best defensive throw. Also some protection against a 5 cut.
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Inushtuk1
689 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Tuesday 6:39 AM
I suppose I *should* play defense. Im - 19. My opponent is plus 5. But s/hes already dealing 2 Holes beyond the CPZ. So Ill try a little offense. But not crazy 2-6-8-8 offense, tossing the toucher face cards which are suited to boot. Not worth an extra 0.11 points in my average hand.

Lead the 8d. And Ill take the (21-3) if offered.
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horus93
227 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Tuesday 6:51 AM
I went for a defensive toss that still preserved some chance for a good hand. My hopenosis paid off today!

With 12 known points we will be around 79. I doubt I can peg the 17 points needed to get into superior position by playing on. Say I pegged four and got to 83, it won't do me much good if I gave up three in the process and dealer is now at 89 or something. I'd play defense and try to keep dealer behind his next "par area" around 86. I'd lead an 8 and play the J on a 7 response.
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JRCeagle78
544 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Tuesday 7:14 AM
I briefly contemplated tossing J-Q, but was quickly awoken by my alarm clock. Tossing suited J-Q to my opponents crib is a BAD IDEA. I'll admit that having the 2 as an escape card was appealing, but the Jack can serve the same purpose with a lot less risk.

The 7 cut is a welcome sight and allows me to use a cautious offense. I'll lead the 8 and see where it goes from there.
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Ras2829
3154 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Tuesday 10:41 AM
Can't bring myself to play defense with opponent dealing from hole 75. So it's an optimal pegging strategy, lead the 8 and take those pegs reasonably safe. As Inushtuk1 says would take the run of three even though it would make the count 21 if dealer plays a 7 on my opener. If playing defense from the gate, go with the low scoring 6-Q.
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glmccuskey
2796 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Tuesday 2:04 PM
Defense for me. Lead the eight of diamonds.
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Coeurdelion
3630 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Tuesday 2:47 PM
I think its between 2-Q and 6-Q:

6-8-8-J: 2pts - 4pts (Schell: 4.56) = -2pts

2-8-8-J: 2pts - 4pts (Schell: 4.22) = -2pts

Potential:

6-8-8-J: Improves with AAAA, 5555, 666, 7777, 88, 9999, JJJ = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 6/12pts with AAAA, 7777, 88 = 10 cuts. Plus 11 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.


2-8-8-J: Improves with 222, 3333, 5555, 7777, 88, JJJ = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 6/8pts with 5555, 88 = 6 cuts. Plus 11 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

Pegging:

2-8-8-J should peg slightly better.

Position:

Dealer is already 5pts past the 70pt positional hole and we won't reach 96pts for next deal so I think its best we play Defense.

Summary:

6-8-8-J has more cuts for improvement and for an average/good hand and a better maximum. I think this will make up for the pt lower starting value and the slightly better pegging. So I'll throw 2-Q.
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HalscribCLX
3388 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Tuesday 3:07 PM
At 67-75* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total__W3 %___W4 %
6-8-8-J___4.24+1.41+(-4.63)=1.02___0.5____5.8
2-8-8-J___3.72+1.00+(-4.14)=0.58___0.5____5.5

Defense_______L3 %___L4 %
6-8-8-J_______23.3___66.0
2-8-8-J_______23.7___66.6

6-8-8-J is 0.44pt better for expected averages and it is also slightly better for Win %s and Loss %s so I'll select 2-Q to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll lead the 8D and play Offense:

Lead_______Our Pegging Pts.
8_______________1.37
J_______________1.16
6_______________1.01
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