May 16, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by james500
71*-84  ?
62%
15%
11%
5%
2%
0%
Total votes: 151
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:11 AM
We learned a few days ago, Ras explains that the pegging value of holding cards of less than 5 in value outweighs holding the magic of 2-2-7. (hand was 2-2-3-3-6-7). Could this be the the case for holding 3-3-4-4????
This hand increases in potential value from 4 points to over 8 points; has the potential for a maximum of 20 points; and has the highest combined average than the other three discards I looked at. (3-3, 4-4, and flush discard 3-4).
Rosemarie44 says: We have a three card eleven here.
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:58 AM
I could have done 3-9 a relatively lower discard then 7-9. But I do not want a face cut here I want a two thru five cut even an eight would be worth while here. Hoping they do not a hand to peg on with an ace thru five arrangment. Careful with the pegging I'm thinking using the pair on a go. We need a boat full of points here we got twelve to start. dec
james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:38 AM
Some big hands possible if holding 3-3-4-4 and the cut is a 2,4,5 or 8, an 8 helping the crib also.
Flushes can be harder for your opponent to read. This one improves on all non-X cuts, and also allows open ended-touching cards to the crib.

I think I'd rather start with a guaranteed six points though.
3-3-7-9 (4-4) will be helped by any cut that isn't an Ace or X (26/46), and has a two-card-sixteen that might work on a Q or K lead:
Q/K(10) - 9(19) - 5(24) - 7(31/2).

4-4-7-9 (3-3) will be helped by any cut that isn't an Ace, 5 or X (22/46), but has a two-card-eleven that might work on ANY X lead:
X(10) - 7(17) - X(27) - 4(31/2).

I'll go for the six point option with the greater number of helpful cuts, despite the better pegging prospects of a 7-4 combo.

Nice cut if my opponent has read John Chambers book!
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016

 
 
 
Wednesday 5:33 AM
with 20 cuts available to improve this hand it is worth a shot. By discarding the 7-9, the value of an 8 cut is doubled. Since I am the dealer it is not beneficial to put 9-3 or 9-4 into your crib because the chances of blanking the crib increase.

When the play of this hand is completed, we will still be trailing, but by a shorter margin. A defensive play would be optimum but holding 2 low pairs limits your options. Having a 4 cut will protect the 4's in your hand.

horus93
1272 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Wednesday 5:42 AM
In the minority today, a hand with all low cards often pegs terribly, tho there is a three-card magic 11 there. Checking discardpro the difference in averages between my pick and 3-3-4-4 is a full 1.2 points but I do believe this will often outpeg by more than a point.

After the cut I'd play off
Guest says: Hi horus99: I will share Ras's pointer for pegging values of the 13 denomination of cards: Ace - 5 has high pegging value; 6-9 has moderate pegging value; 10-Q-K has no pegging value; and Jack has a low pegging value.
Guest says: Guest is me Rosemarie44
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 5:52 AM
Open-ended adjoined pairs have such potential value that holding them is preferable to an alternative of equal value. So it is good-bye flush! Knowing that RAS has that dealer guaranteed peg, 12 points in hand, possible zero crib will play off the lead unless a trey or the lone remaining four. In those cases would pair. If things go as expected will hold the smaller pair hoping to play back to back to end the pegging sequence. Of course if an Ace were led, would retain the larger pair as would not make the count five with the play of a four spot. That's the plan - just have to see how that unfolds. With opponent at hole 84, need to be cautious with the pegs. If non-dealer picks up 2-3 pegs here, will likely have the deal in that 4th street CPZ (95-99).
Ras2829 says: BTW based on my scant empirical evidence, there is about .3 of a point difference in defensive pegging value of holding 3-3-7-9 as compared to the two pairs. If one were to choose offense as a pegging strategy the suited 3-4-7-9 would have the edge. In either case the potential value of the pairs exceeds the plus/minus of pegging.
Ras2829 says: On a X-point lead, keep the larger pair as optimal choice to close the count at 31-4.
Inushtuk1
1464 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Wednesday 7:36 AM
It’s all been said above. Nice cut. But I’m still a little short. Must pair the opening lead or take the (15-2). Then I can switch to defense. But on an X-card lead I’ll play my *3*. That’s the best way to get the (31-4). If we make the count (14) and Pone plays another X-card we’ll only get (30-3).
JQT
4136 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 8:46 AM
I'm still trying to calculate if the 400th anniversary of Kepler's Third Law of Planetary Motion is affected by the 1752 changes that were made by Pope Gregory to implement the Gregorian Calendar.
Guest says: No effect what so ever,,,,,,,,
JQT says: Small typo: it was 1582 (not 1752, oops) when the calendar was changed, when little boy Johann was approximately nine years of age. Thus while it must have indeed affected the time between Kepler's ninth and tenth birthdays, I think we can safely assume that his Three Laws of Planetary Motion were developed some time *after* this date! Thus, I contend that the 400th Anniversary Celebration held yesterday was indeed warranted and appropriate!
JQT says: Although it was not *implemented* widely until 1752, and it is still not fully adopted in a few isolated parts of Russia! And so perhaps the plot doth thicken.....
JQT says: How could it take them two hundred years to "fix" the calendar? (Probably the same way it has taken us even longer to "get aboard" the Metric System...)
Inushtuk1 says: Like the last time, I’m almost sorry I asked. ; - )
Hillchem says: My favourite example of the dates is that the October Revolution in Russia began on Nov 7! Also, Canada has not fully switched to metric but get on board Americans! It's the best!
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018

 
 
 
Wednesday 11:08 AM
Had it been the pone's crib, would you still have thrown the 7,9 ?
Inushtuk1 says: Absolutely. with its three-card Eleven, it’s almost as powerful as 2-2-3-3.
Gougie00
5702 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 11:09 AM
Elsewhere on the board, I'd keep the flush. Down by 13, I need a bundle. 3344 always gets help, and its true again!

Respond with a 3 and parlay the 4-4
Ras2829 says: Folks need to practice cutting a couple of hours daily so they can avoid cutting 6, 10, J, Q, or K if holding these pairs. Then 3344 would "always get help."
Coeurdelion
5574 votes

Joined: October 2007

Wednesday 2:31 PM
Four possibilites with this deal I think - the flush, 4-4-7-9 (3-3), 3-3-7-9 (4-4) and 3-3-4-4 (7-9):

3D-4D-7-9: 4pts + 5pts (Schell: 4.91) = 9pts

4-4-7-9: 4pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.94) = 9¾pts

3-3-7-9: 4pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.63) = 9¾pts

3-3-4-4: 4pts + 4¼pts (Schell: 4.04) = 8¼pts

Potential:

3D-4D-7-9: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 33, 44, 5555, 6666, 777, 8888, 999 = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 8/9pts with 2222, 33, 44, 5555, 8888 = 16 cuts. Plus 9 diamonds for an extra 1pt for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

4-4-7-9: Improves with 2222, 44, 6666, 777, 8888, 999 = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 8/12pts with 2222, 44, 777 = 9 cuts.

3-3-7-9: Improves with 2222, 33, 5555, 6666, 777, 8888, 999 = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 8/9/12pts with 33, 5555, 8888 = 10 cuts.

3-3-4-4: Improves with 2222, 33, 44, 5555, 777, 8888, 999 = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 8/12/16/20pts with 2222, 33, 44, 5555, 8888 = 16 cuts.

Pegging:

All these hands will peg quite well but the flush has a magic eleven and will be hard to read so may be the best.

Position:

We're in position but opponent only needs 12pts to reach 4th street positional hole so I'll play Defense to hold them back.

Summary:

The flush has most cuts for improvement and the extra diamonds add another 0.20pt. The best starting values are for 4-4-7-9 and 3-3-7-9 but 3-3-7-9 has most cuts for improvement and one more for a good hand. 3-3-4-4 has fewer cuts for improvement but 16 cuts for 8-20pts. I think the 10 cuts 2222, 44, 5555 that score 12/16/20pts will make up the 1¾pts. So I'll throw the 7-9.
HalscribCLX
5297 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:57 PM
At 71*-84 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W3 %____W4 %
3-3-4-4___8.09+(-2.17)+4.13=10.05____15.3____24.5
3-3-7-9___5.87+(-1.93)+5.41= 9.35_____8.4____22.5
4-4-7-9___5.70+(-2.02)+5.56= 9.24_____9.0____23.3
3D-4D-7-9_6.63+(-2.07)+4.62= 9.18_____9.3____21.9

Defense_______L3 %____L4 %
3-3-4-4_______44.1____65.9
3-3-7-9_______41.5____69.7
4-4-7-9_______40.6____68.5
3D-4D-7-9_____45.2____70.8

3-3-4-4 is best for expected averages by 0.70pt and is significantly best for Win %s. 4-4-7-9 is best for Loss %s but even so I'll select 7-9 to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll play Optimally to the lead.