May 16, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by james500
71*-84  ?
62%
15%
11%
5%
2%
0%
Total votes: 151

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Rosemarie44
982 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Wednesday 3:11 AM
We learned a few days ago, Ras explains that the pegging value of holding cards of less than 5 in value outweighs holding the magic of 2-2-7. (hand was 2-2-3-3-6-7). Could this be the the case for holding 3-3-4-4????
This hand increases in potential value from 4 points to over 8 points; has the potential for a maximum of 20 points; and has the highest combined average than the other three discards I looked at. (3-3, 4-4, and flush discard 3-4).
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dec
4224 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Wednesday 3:58 AM
I could have done 3-9 a relatively lower discard then 7-9. But I do not want a face cut here I want a two thru five cut even an eight would be worth while here. Hoping they do not a hand to peg on with an ace thru five arrangment. Careful with the pegging I'm thinking using the pair on a go. We need a boat full of points here we got twelve to start. dec
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james500
1922 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Wednesday 4:38 AM
Some big hands possible if holding 3-3-4-4 and the cut is a 2,4,5 or 8, an 8 helping the crib also.
Flushes can be harder for your opponent to read. This one improves on all non-X cuts, and also allows open ended-touching cards to the crib.

I think I'd rather start with a guaranteed six points though.
3-3-7-9 (4-4) will be helped by any cut that isn't an Ace or X (26/46), and has a two-card-sixteen that might work on a Q or K lead:
Q/K(10) - 9(19) - 5(24) - 7(31/2).

4-4-7-9 (3-3) will be helped by any cut that isn't an Ace, 5 or X (22/46), but has a two-card-eleven that might work on ANY X lead:
X(10) - 7(17) - X(27) - 4(31/2).

I'll go for the six point option with the greater number of helpful cuts, despite the better pegging prospects of a 7-4 combo.

Nice cut if my opponent has read John Chambers book!
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JRCeagle78
544 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Wednesday 5:33 AM
with 20 cuts available to improve this hand it is worth a shot. By discarding the 7-9, the value of an 8 cut is doubled. Since I am the dealer it is not beneficial to put 9-3 or 9-4 into your crib because the chances of blanking the crib increase.

When the play of this hand is completed, we will still be trailing, but by a shorter margin. A defensive play would be optimum but holding 2 low pairs limits your options. Having a 4 cut will protect the 4's in your hand.

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horus93
227 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Wednesday 5:42 AM
In the minority today, a hand with all low cards often pegs terribly, tho there is a three-card magic 11 there. Checking discardpro the difference in averages between my pick and 3-3-4-4 is a full 1.2 points but I do believe this will often outpeg by more than a point.

After the cut I'd play off
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Ras2829
3154 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Wednesday 5:52 AM
Open-ended adjoined pairs have such potential value that holding them is preferable to an alternative of equal value. So it is good-bye flush! Knowing that RAS has that dealer guaranteed peg, 12 points in hand, possible zero crib will play off the lead unless a trey or the lone remaining four. In those cases would pair. If things go as expected will hold the smaller pair hoping to play back to back to end the pegging sequence. Of course if an Ace were led, would retain the larger pair as would not make the count five with the play of a four spot. That's the plan - just have to see how that unfolds. With opponent at hole 84, need to be cautious with the pegs. If non-dealer picks up 2-3 pegs here, will likely have the deal in that 4th street CPZ (95-99).
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Inushtuk1
689 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Wednesday 7:36 AM
It’s all been said above. Nice cut. But I’m still a little short. Must pair the opening lead or take the (15-2). Then I can switch to defense. But on an X-card lead I’ll play my *3*. That’s the best way to get the (31-4). If we make the count (14) and Pone plays another X-card we’ll only get (30-3).
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JQT
2439 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Wednesday 8:46 AM
I'm still trying to calculate if the 400th anniversary of Kepler's Third Law of Planetary Motion is affected by the 1752 changes that were made by Pope Gregory to implement the Gregorian Calendar.
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dgergens
170 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Wednesday 11:08 AM
Had it been the pone's crib, would you still have thrown the 7,9 ?
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Gougie00
3663 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Wednesday 11:09 AM
Elsewhere on the board, I'd keep the flush. Down by 13, I need a bundle. 3344 always gets help, and its true again!

Respond with a 3 and parlay the 4-4
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Coeurdelion
3630 votes

Joined: October 2007

Wednesday 2:31 PM
Four possibilites with this deal I think - the flush, 4-4-7-9 (3-3), 3-3-7-9 (4-4) and 3-3-4-4 (7-9):

3D-4D-7-9: 4pts + 5pts (Schell: 4.91) = 9pts

4-4-7-9: 4pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.94) = 9¾pts

3-3-7-9: 4pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.63) = 9¾pts

3-3-4-4: 4pts + 4¼pts (Schell: 4.04) = 8¼pts

Potential:

3D-4D-7-9: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 33, 44, 5555, 6666, 777, 8888, 999 = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 8/9pts with 2222, 33, 44, 5555, 8888 = 16 cuts. Plus 9 diamonds for an extra 1pt for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

4-4-7-9: Improves with 2222, 44, 6666, 777, 8888, 999 = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 8/12pts with 2222, 44, 777 = 9 cuts.

3-3-7-9: Improves with 2222, 33, 5555, 6666, 777, 8888, 999 = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 8/9/12pts with 33, 5555, 8888 = 10 cuts.

3-3-4-4: Improves with 2222, 33, 44, 5555, 777, 8888, 999 = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 8/12/16/20pts with 2222, 33, 44, 5555, 8888 = 16 cuts.

Pegging:

All these hands will peg quite well but the flush has a magic eleven and will be hard to read so may be the best.

Position:

We're in position but opponent only needs 12pts to reach 4th street positional hole so I'll play Defense to hold them back.

Summary:

The flush has most cuts for improvement and the extra diamonds add another 0.20pt. The best starting values are for 4-4-7-9 and 3-3-7-9 but 3-3-7-9 has most cuts for improvement and one more for a good hand. 3-3-4-4 has fewer cuts for improvement but 16 cuts for 8-20pts. I think the 10 cuts 2222, 44, 5555 that score 12/16/20pts will make up the 1¾pts. So I'll throw the 7-9.
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HalscribCLX
3388 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Wednesday 3:57 PM
At 71*-84 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W3 %____W4 %
3-3-4-4___8.09+(-2.17)+4.13=10.05____15.3____24.5
3-3-7-9___5.87+(-1.93)+5.41= 9.35_____8.4____22.5
4-4-7-9___5.70+(-2.02)+5.56= 9.24_____9.0____23.3
3D-4D-7-9_6.63+(-2.07)+4.62= 9.18_____9.3____21.9

Defense_______L3 %____L4 %
3-3-4-4_______44.1____65.9
3-3-7-9_______41.5____69.7
4-4-7-9_______40.6____68.5
3D-4D-7-9_____45.2____70.8

3-3-4-4 is best for expected averages by 0.70pt and is significantly best for Win %s. 4-4-7-9 is best for Loss %s but even so I'll select 7-9 to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll play Optimally to the lead.
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