May 21, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
88*-89  ?
68%
21%
3%
3%
2%
1%
Total votes: 156
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Monday 3:03 AM
Side by side with opponent, going with tossing 8-8 to my crib. This hand has more cuts for improvement but at a lower value than tossing A-4. Let's see what others have chosen with today's hand.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Monday 3:05 AM
We are about seven or eight holes shy of where wish to be.

There may be some temptation to stow the PEAR of 8 Cards in Our Crib, so how do we decide matters today?

A single 5 Card, or any two cards that either add up to five or add up to fifteen will out-perform almost any PAIR sent to our Own Crib.

This helps us with our decision today: get that "Nickel Combination" of A-4 into the Crib!

The Deuce Cut is Bad News, unless Pone unloaded a Trey in Our Crib. But even if we got the proverbial T-K, we know that we could have Four Points in the Box.
JQT says: A solitary 5 Card sent into our Own Crib is almost always better than any PAIR, save a PAIR of 5 Cards of course. When it comes to Toss (A 4), this will usually topple any PAIR including and above two 8 Cards; but it will also compete quite well with some of the "Small Card" PAIRS, too. Remember, if we retain the PAIR in Our Hand, we'll *still* be getting those Two Points from the PAIR itself, and it is this value that makes up much of the Crib Value when we do indeed place such a PAIR into Our Crib. Stashing a PAIR in Our Crib should usually only be considered when there is no comparable alternative.
dgergens says: Thank you for that pearl of wisdom. While I didn't know that explicitly, I knew putting the 4,A in my crib c/would be valuable. But after much debate, I felt I could peg better keeping the 4,A, so I tossed the 8's.
Guest says: Pear
Inushtuk1 says: Hi John. It seems to me your bias, if I may use that term, against pairs in our crib is based on the fact that much of their value is inherent. But the same could be said for the *other* one star tosses such as (A-5), or (A-4). Whether I keep them in my hand or my crib, I know I will score two points either way. Hope you are doing okay.
JQT says: I guess I'm doing okay, almost adequate even, in the aggregate, thanks. These seasonal change storms now occurring across the South do tend to wreak havoc with my atypical trigeminal neuralgia and severe migraines, but you know: enough about me! (What do *you* think about me? ; - ) Okay, back to your interesting, if not altogether reasonable, Cribbage Question: Yes and No. Yes, the "inherent" value of a PAIR does certainly make up a significant amount of its Crib Value, but as you rightly pointed out, we also derive a similar inherent value and thus benefit from any 5 Card sent to Our Crib, or from any combination of cards that either adds up to five, or adds up to fifteen. And so that's not sufficient to explain the entirety of my purported logic. No, there's something else about PAIRS that I think makes them less powerful than say "touching" cards in our Crib: if we are dealt two or more of any card, those cards are now less likely to show up from either the Cut Card or from Pone's Discard! It's merely a matter of statistics in that when we send a PAIR into our Own Crib, these are now 'de-facto' cards that are less likely to receive additional help from a card of a similar rank. This is of course less worrisome if we are considering discarding a PAIR of prime connector cards such as Toss (3 3) or even Toss (7 7) I believe, because these often receive likely help from *other* cards. Notice also that I am mostly talking about 'relative improvement' here as opposed to 'static' value: naturally if we stow a PAIR, we already begin with Two Points in Our Crib. But my concept here (and I do believe it's a more vital criteria when it comes to overall 'synergy' in Our Crib) is that other constructs such as "touching" cards and cards that add up to either five or fifteen offer us someting better on which to BUILD additional points, points that usually originate from where none existed prior.
Inushtuk1 says: Thanks JQT.
dec
6356 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Monday 3:09 AM
I think i need some defensive pegging on this and / or a huge hand. here goes. dec
Gougie00
5728 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Monday 4:13 AM
Gotta keep the 889 together to prevent a 7 cut. THUD ... Awful cut. Oh well ...
denewton48@yahoo.com says: I don't understand why you wouldn't want a 7 cut with the 8's in your crib
Inushtuk1 says: Hi denewton. You didn’t ask me, but that’s never stopped me before. Greg’s way, he has 12 in his hand, *and* a guarantee of at least 2 in his crib. Your way, you have a guarantee of only 6 in your crib, and 2 only in your hand. But your way *does* have better escape material.
Guest says: I'm relatively new to the game. Saw my hand as having better pegging opportunity? Also don't see a "guarantee" of 2 in Greg's crib
Inushtuk1 says: You do have slightly better pegging cards. As for Greg’s guarantee of 2 points in his crib; any two cards that add up to 5 must always be worth at least 2 points. Get out your deck, and try to find three other cards with your A-4 that won’t be worth at least that much.
JQT says: Denewton: I believe that Gougie was just embellishing a wonderful display of irony. The 7 Card Cut pushes the 8-8-9 from Two Points all the way up to a Dozen Points, and by attempting to achieve this, with a clever twist of words, he implies that he has thus doomed his own good fortune.
denewton48@yahoo.com says: Inushtuk1, JQT...thanks for the help and insights!
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018

 
 
 
Monday 5:16 AM
4 am in CA, I don't usually get to chime in till later. Appreciate this forum and the time people take to explain their reasoning and share their knowledge.
james500
3921 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Monday 5:22 AM
I'm in the A-4 gang today.

Two card sixteen with 8-8, although would only play it on a led Jack, Queen or King.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi James. I would really like to know how you plan to handle the 10 lead. We’ve really jammed ourselves up with this keep haven’t we? Anyone else who chose or *didn’t* choose this hand can chime in with their two cents worth as well.thanks in advance.
wasa says: On a T lead I play the 8. Pone can score only with 8-8-9-9-9 (5 cards), while if I play 9 on T lead pone scores with 8-8-9-9-9-J-J-J (8 cards). With J reply to T pone scores with 9-9-9-J-J-J-Q-Q-Q-Q (10 cards). Hope I did my math right this time!
Inushtuk1 says: Hi wasa. Your math is impeccable. I still like the 9 reply, keeping my scorers for last, and the strong finish. But I see this as an offensive position. You, like horus93, may see this as a time to play defense. You may be right. I’m not sure.
james500 says: Hi both. I'm not sure what I was thinking of when I posted earlier, you're right to say that it'd have to be a 8 response to all X leads, hoping for that 5 card response.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016

 
 
 
Monday 7:13 AM
How often can you make a mistake and still come out in good shape ?

I did not verify who was dealer before my discard and as a result discarded the wrong cards. Had I had my coffee the 9-J would not have been dropped into my crib. I would have chosen A-4
Inushtuk1
1485 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Monday 7:40 AM
I know I’m throwing away my “Magic Eleven”. I also know the expected average is higher the other way. But I’m fast running out of race track. I need that 12 point hand *now*

I wasn’t a very good Dealer, and my opponent was an even worse cutter. Playing offense for sure. On a J lead I must risk pairing it. On any other X-card lead I’ll dump my 9. I want to force the Pone to play-out so I can play my 8’s back to back for 3 points. Looks like I’ll be on the offensive for the rest of the game.
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Monday 8:26 AM
I went with this because I thought it would have the highest average. Liam has it tied with 8-8.

Defense after the cut. We're 9 points short but he's only one point ahead. Odds are better to hold him back than to try to force our way ahead.
Coeurdelion
5592 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Monday 2:55 PM
It looks like its between A-4-9-J (8-8) and 8-8-9-J (A-4):

A-4-9-J: 2pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.76) = 7¾pts

8-8-9-J: 2pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 7¼pts

Potential:

A-4-9-J: Improves with AAA, 2222, 444, 5555, 6666, 999 + 15xXs = 36 cuts = 36/46 = 78.3% up to 6/7/8pts with AAA, 444, 5555, 10101010, JJJ = 17 cuts.

8-8-9-J: Improves with 5555, 6666, 7777, 88, 999, 10101010, JJJ = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 6/10/12pts with 7777, 88, 10101010 = 10 cuts.

Pegging:

Playing Offense I think A-4-9-J will peg the best.

Position:

Pone only needs 7pts to reach 3rd street positional hole so we're well behind and I think we must play Offense to try to catch up.

Summary:

A-4-9-J has more cuts for improvement and more cuts for an average hand. 8-8-9-J has a much better maximum with 8 cuts for 10/12pts (7777, 10101010). I think the difference could be in the pegging so I'll throw the 8-8.
Rosemarie44 says: Hi Coeurdelion: There are only a few us on this site and 22% of the voters that chose this hand. Looking forward to Ras and Hal's comments, too.
HalscribCLX
5315 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Monday 3:31 PM
At 88*-89 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W2 %___W3 %
A-4-9-J___4.76+2.85+5.34=12.95____5.2____22.1
8-8-9-J___4.59+2.80+5.44=12.83____5.5____22.6

Offense_______L2 %____L3 %
A-4-9-J_______16.6____62.9
8-8-9-J_______16.2____61.8

A-4-9-J is 0.12pt better for expected averages but 8-8-9-J is very slightly better for both Win %s and Loss %s which take account of the board position. Its a very close decision but as we're at a critical stage of the game I'll choose based on the Win/Loss %s and select A-4 to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
Ras2829
5151 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Monday 4:20 PM
RAS agrees with the choice of offense here although it is a very close call. Where would I have played defense? If opponent were at hole 87, think defense pegging strategy would be correct. Better chance of slowing opponent down than speeding self up through offense. So will take any pegs offered and will probably be committed to offensive choices for the remainder of this game after that seemingly unhelpful deuce cut. off., off.,
Ras2829 says: BTW am amazed that 70% made this choice as thought the vote would be split much closer between holding 8-8-9-J or A-4-9-J. Didn't consider any options beyond that.