Tuesday 3:35 AM

Choosing the balking cards, 4-K to opponent. This hand has more cuts at a higher value than tossing 4-7 which has 30 cuts keeping the hand value at 4 points. Nice cut for us but gives opponent 2 points!

   

Tuesday 3:53 AM

yes got to keep a chance of an eight being cut. if I was whey behind I would have done 7-K. Lead a six. dec

   

Tuesday 4:12 AM

Whatever we do here may be wrong ... or it may be right! What's gotten into Inushtuk?!

I almost settled upon Toss (K K), and then I looked at Toss (4 7). What's gotten into me?!

We'd *really* like to get to Hole 70, by hook or by crook. With that precious 5 Card Cut, it may just be the former instead of the latter today. Let's lead from our lovely Au Pear.

   

Tuesday 4:39 AM

I'm not afraid to toss the Kings. However my fear now is I got 14 to give up 12 in the crib. Lead the 7 and peg optimally. All of a sudden, I will be in a favorable position for the start of the next deal.

I couldnt *prevent* a 5 cut this time.

   

Tuesday 5:06 AM

scared man can,t gamble that's why i threw the kings,s into the crib

   

Tuesday 5:33 AM

There's no synergy between Kings and sixes, and 4-7 can "score double" in my opponent's box should it meet another 4, so I'll look for an alternative to keeping the two pairs.

-Cuts of an A,3,4,5,6,9 or King will help me.
-Well known pegging trap with the 6-6-4 combo.
-No synergy between the two cards I've discarded, with an additional drop of negative delta too, since I'm holding a second King.

   

Tuesday 6:25 AM

I pondered keeping the 667 together and tossing the 4-K, but keeping 2 points doesn't thrill me. Kept the 4 points but now I'm thinking I should have tossed 4-K. Curious what HAL will say.

   

Tuesday 7:25 AM

In evaluating this hand, each option can enhance our chances or destroy them.

4-6-6-7 will give us 14 points and the dealer 6 in his crib. 24 cuts will improve our hand and 6 cuts will improve the dealers crib

6-6-7-K will give us 10 points and the dealer 2.
20 cuts will improve our hand 10 cuts will improve the dealers crib.

In both cases we will have a net of plus 8. I wanted to try to blank the dealer with a Ks-4c discard. If I discarded K-7 it would severely diminish our options to improve the hand. Normally I don't like to lead a 6, but I will in this instance.

   

Tuesday 7:43 AM

What James and JRCeagle say.

   

Tuesday 8:16 AM

It seems as though tossing KK and hoping for a 5 cut is kind of self destructive. Toss K-4 off suit and hope for a 5 cut still puts me at 69 and hopefully minimizes what dealer is getting in the crib. Other cuts don't help me as much but K-4 hopefully slows down dealer as well. I view K-4 as kind of "hope for a 5 cut" while at the same time "cut a 5 insurance".

   

Tuesday 8:16 AM

It seems as though tossing KK and hoping for a 5 cut is kind of self destructive. Toss K-4 off suit and hope for a 5 cut still puts me at 69 and hopefully minimizes what dealer is getting in the crib. Other cuts don't help me as much but K-4 hopefully slows down dealer as well. I view K-4 as kind of "hope for a 5 cut" while at the same time "cut a 5 insurance".

   

Tuesday 9:36 AM

Need to get down the board and want the added value that an 8 cut would bring. Lead a six.

   

Tuesday 9:55 AM

Discard the 7-K. Retain 4-6-6 as the potential pegging value of that combination should slightly offset other factors, go for one of cribbage's high percentage traps by leading the 6, and see where that goes. With fourteen points after seeing the starter card, will peg optimally.

   

Tuesday 12:08 PM

These hands seem to come up often. JQT and JRCeagle78 are right. Whatever we do could be wrong or right. Like yesterday, it’s difficult to know whether to choose offense or defense. We are -1. Dealer is plus 18. But using the 26 Theory we should go out with first hand show, leaving the current dealer at 117. So I chose defense, but at the same time keeping the 4 starting points. My second choice would have been 4-6-6-K(K-7).

In the actual game the cut was a K. I led my suited 6 to keep the K’s for a back to back play if possible. I did not record how the pegging went exactly. I only know that I got only one peg, as the score for the next hand was 68*-74. I think next time I’ll try 4-6-6-K(K-7), keeping the “Sweet Sixteen”.

   

Tuesday 2:22 PM

Do we keep the 4pts or throw the safer discard with more potential:

6-6-K-K: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.88) = -1pts

6-6-7-K: 2pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.36) = -2½pts

Potential:

6-6-K-K: Improves with 3333, 5555, 66, 9999, KK = 16 cuts = 16/46 = 34.8% up to 8pts with 5555, 66, 9999, KK = 12 cuts.

6-6-7-K: Improves with 2222, 3333, 5555, 66, 777, 8888, 9999, KK = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 6/10pts with 2222, 5555, 66, 8888, 9999 = 18 cuts.

Pegging:

6-6-7-K should peg better with 3 middle cards and close cards.

Position:

We need 11pts to reach 3rd street positional hole so I'll play Offense or perhaps cautious offense.

Summary:

The starting value of 6-6-K-K is 1½pts better than 6-6-7-K but 6-6-7-K has more cuts for improvement and 18 cuts for 6/10pts. Will this make up the 1½pts? I think with the better pegging it probably will so I'll throw the 4-K.

   

Tuesday 2:43 PM

At 59-62* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total___W4 %___W5 %
6-6-K-K___5.22+(-2.87)+(-4.59)=(-2.24)___5.9___26.0
6-6-7-KC__4.65+(-2.91)+(-4.28)=(-2.54)___7.1___27.7
4-6-6-K___4.13+(-2.96)+(-4.00)=(-2.83)__10.3___28.6

Defense______L4 %____L5 %
6-6-K-K______16.8____50.8
6-6-7-KC_____16.6____48.9
4-6-6-K______16.0____46.7

6-6-K-K is best for expected averages by 0.30pt over 6-6-7-KC and 0.59pt over 4-6-6-K. However for Win %s and Loss %s, which take account of the board position, 4-6-6-K is appreciably best. 6-6-7-K is a good middle of the road compromise. But as its only half-way through the game I'll put most weight on the expected averages and select 4-7 to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll lead 6S and play Offense:

Lead_________Our Pegging Pts.
6_________________1.16
K_________________1.11