May 25, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
98*-102  ?
52%
32%
9%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 152
james500
3917 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Friday 3:14 AM
*6-4-A eleven for pegging with.
*Open-ended touching cards in my box.
*Most cuts will help me somehow, (all bar a 2 or 3 = 38/46).

38 cards = 36 + 2 =
38 cards = (6*6 cards) + (2*1 cards) =
38 cards = (6*13%) + (2*2%) =
38 cards = 78% + 4% =
38 cards = 82% chance of a helpful cut.
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Friday 3:14 AM
Best hand for combined expected averages (crib and hand) starting at 4 points and maximum of 14 points.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Friday 3:28 AM
This is an excellent example of what I mentioned a few days ago:

Instead of discarding PEARS such as Toss (4 4), look for a possible alternative ... in this case, we have Toss (8 9).
Guest says: Yep, it's touchie discard dsy
JQT says: Only a Deuce or a Trey Cut will NOT help us, therefore 46 minus 8 equals 38 Cuts WILL help us, and since 38 DIV equals 0.826 then we have nearly an 83% chance of getting a nice boost today. After seeing that 7 Card Cut, we have Six Points in Hand, at least Five Points in Crib, and we'll peg at least One Point, so we shall at least reach Hole 110. And since Dealer usually averages to peg three or four holes, we actually should stand much better, which won't hurt. Pone needs Nineteen Holes to WIN, so we probably have some 'wiggle room' during the pegging, but our decision of whether to take any risks during the pegging should be highly influenced by Pone's Lead Card, and how it associates or "plays with" the 7 Card Cut. For example, if Pone leads a 9 Card, I think I'd "Play OFF" with a 4 Card Reply. Pone might have a 7-8-9 construct, which easily and often forms a dozen or more points. The only card I would PAIR would be a 4 Card. And I may dump a 4 Card after a Ten Card Lead as well, just to retain an assortment.
dec
6352 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Friday 3:31 AM
Ten point cards and middle cards . Looks like the cut it both and just maybe a huge crib. Peg accordingly on what the lead is. dec
Jazzselke
2583 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Friday 4:42 AM
Best potential and good pegging cards, as mentioned by James.
Gougie00
5724 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Friday 5:13 AM
I guess I'm the first to try something different. I really need a big hand and crib. The 7 is my bingo card. The A689 should be a good non-pegger because I am no longer interested in offense.
glmccuskey
4095 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Friday 5:17 AM
Wanted to keep the A-4-4 together and the six card goes with them. All out offense from here.
wasa
3012 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Friday 7:02 AM
I need 23 total points in my three counts. Pondered the 8-9 vs the 4-4 discard and to me, keeping the A-4-4-6 has too many cuts for a 2 or 4 point hand (A,2,3,7,8,9). A T or face card cut gives me 6 points, which I already have (for sure) with A-6-8-9 toss 4-4. Cut was great for me. With a known 14 points, feeling good and would peg aggressively.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi wasa. The A-4-4-6 starts with *4* points not 2. Therefore a T or a face card gives us 8 points. Hence it’s popularity this morning. That plus the Magic Eleven.
Guest says: That's for sure,,,,,'
wasa says: Hi Inushtuk. Dang nab-it. I missed that, and hence reiterate that I should not comment until after my coffee. Grr. Great point - in hindsight I should ponder my choice even more.
Inushtuk1
1480 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Friday 7:26 AM
This. Is yet another of the seemingly hundred or so hands where 4 starting combined poinst is better than 6. Play defense after the cut. Keep the opponent well short of Hole. 116 or 117 as next Dealer.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Friday 8:37 AM
This hand should get me to hole 112 or 113. With a first count on the next deal, I like my chances.
dgergens says: Cheers. Not being a smart ass, really want to understand, how did you see making 14 or 15 points?
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Friday 8:46 AM
I confess, not enough covfefe this morning. I was looking to keep the A,4's together and didn't notice the 6 made it a 4 pt hand. Thinking it only a 2 pt I chose otherwise. My mistake was certainly rewarded with that cut.
Goatman
2502 votes

Joined: March 2017
 
 
 
Friday 11:56 AM
Thought I saw A688 until I read JQT's comments...oh well not the first time I've seen the cards differently after the cut. Would be nice to see how the pair of 4's did with that 7 cut.
JQT says: Beware, as there are some card decks that use a different layout for the 8 Card! The most common design you'll encounter has three suit symbols along each outer edge (when card faces are stacked vertically tall) with two suit symbols in the center. More rarely seen however is an alternate design which has two stacked rows of four suit symbols along either edge. This can and does cause visual confusion, and often you won't even know how or why it occurred! Do an online image search for '8 Card' and you will find the two variations. And be careful to always look at your cards!
Ras2829
5146 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Friday 1:55 PM
Several factors mitigate conventional wisdom with these cards. If the choice is for offense or optimal pegging strategy the 3 card 11 (1-4-6)often works magic allowing the close of the count for 31-2. On a ten point lead would play a four spot since I have one in reserve and an Ace in the hole. Following the X lead, the count the would often go to 25, respond with the 6 for count of 30 and a likely go. Would pair a four lead though would not pair other offerings. The hold A-4-4-6 has the edge on potential hand value by nearly a full point based on my scant empirical data as all those X-pointer boost the score of the hand from 4-8. In addition, if choosing offense or optimal pegging strategies, the A-4-4-6 has the pegging edge as well. Are you choosing defense? Take a look at opponent position at 102, need 19 points to win on this deal. What are chances that non-dealer can score 19? That's a 1 in 23 proposition. With the average non-dealer scoring of 9 points, opponent should be about hole 111 with the deal. After seeing the 7 on the deck, RAS knows he has the guaranteed peg, six points in hand, and a minimum of 6 in the crib. That puts me at 111. So a few peg points without high risk should give me a pretty good chance to win with first count upcoming. It is important not to give up six pegs on a triple here, the reason for avoiding pairing except for doubling a four spot. Believe have submitted this puzzle or similar 7-89 times over the years and this is the first time the A-4-4-6 got mor4e than 50% of the vote. Those who participate on this page have come along ways over the years. That includes me and appreciate those on this site who continue to aid with my crib education.
Ras2829 says: Am sorry there is a numerical error above as "count...would often go to 25" should read "would often go to 24."
Ras2829 says: Gemeneez! Senility or finger dexterity seems to be taking it's toll on me as I enter the 9th decade of life. Well, am just 1/10th of the way through. Later in my post "7-89" should read "7-8".
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Friday 2:05 PM
I think its between 4-4-6-9 (A-8), A-4-4-6 (8-9) and A-6-8-9 (4-4):

4-4-6-9: 4pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.80) = 7¾pts

A-4-4-6: 4pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.72) = 8¾pts

A-6-8-9: 4pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.63) = 9¾pts

Potential:

4-4-6-9: Improves with AAA, 2222, 44, 5555, 666, 7777, 999 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 8/14pts with 2222, 44, 5555, 666, 999 = 16 cuts.

A-4-4-6: Improves with AAA, 44, 5555, 666, 7777, 888, 999 + 16xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/12/14pts with AAA, 44, 5555, 666 + 16xXs = 28 cuts.

A-6-8-9: Improves with AAA, 5555, 666, 7777, 888, 999 = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 8/10pts with AAA, 666, 7777, 888, 999 = 16 cuts.

Pegging:

A-4-4-6 has more low cards and a 3-card magic eleven.

Position:

We're in the CPZ so I'll play Defense to keep opponent short.

Summary:

A-4-4-6 has the most cuts for improvement and 28 cuts for 8-14pts. It also should peg best. It starts with 1pt less than A-6-8-9 but I think this will be more than made up. So I'll throw 8-9.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Friday 2:42 PM
At 98*-102 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W1 %___W2 %
A-4-4-6___7.57+(-2.22)+4.72=10.07____4.8____51.5
A-6-8-9___6.13+(-2.13)+5.47= 9.47____2.8____51.3
A-4-4-8___5.13+(-2.00)+5.03= 8.16____0.5____39.6
4-4-6-9___6.22+(-2.09)+3.50= 7.63____1.1____37.2
A-4-4-9___5.04+(-1.91)+4.48= 7.61____1.2____34.9

Defense_______L1 %___L2 %
A-4-4-6_______5.9____40.2
A-6-8-9_______3.3____39.8
A-4-4-8_______4.3____52.3
4-4-6-9_______3.3____52.1
A-4-4-9_______4.3____56.2

A-4-4-6 is best for expected averages by 0.50pt and is slightly best for Win %s. A-6-8-9 is lowest for Loss %s but even so I'll select 8-9 to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.